SpectralTransition - Views and Updates on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Dear friends, families and colleagues, We are well into the sixth week of this mess and the fog of war is very, very thick. The Ukrainian army made massive gains in the north and north-east and is pressing hard on Kherson. The Russians took just one place. Unfortunately that’s the very place that matters most to both parties, Izium. It was officially confirmed by the Ukrainian command that the city fell. This will severely complicate the Ukrainian defense efforts in the East. However, I don’t think the Russians will be able to manage an effective encirclement of the Ukrainian Joint Group of Forces, responsible for the defense of Donbass. The main reason for this, is that an evermore clearer picture starts to emerge what happened with the Russian withdrawal defeat around Kyiv. This absolutely was not a withdrawal, but a decisive defeat. There are a couple of main indicators 1.        The amount of abandoned equipment the Ukrainians captured is simply ...

Dear friends, family and colleagues, Yesterday we finally reached the long awaited moment: Ukraine goes full blown on offensive operations and Russia is on the defense on every front, even the initial successful south. Ukraine really shows that it’s the only country in the world that truly understands Putin’s Russia. Instead of believing Russia that it’s performing a withdrawal from the north and north-east, Ukrainian forces keep on attacking the withdrawing (fleeing) forces with full ferocity. The Ukrainians captured a large amount of villages around Kyiv yesterday and destroying and capturing an insane amount of equipment. This doesn’t look like a withdrawal, but more like a combination of a rout and a withdrawal. Similar scenes happened   to the North of Kherson and where the Ukrainians pushed southwards from Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia oblast. The decision to keep on attacking the fleeing Russian troops is vital for the following reasons: 1.     ...

 Dear friends, family and colleagues, We have started to arrive on the point where we can roughly determine where this will lead to on the battlefield. Over the past couple of days the Ukrainians managed to achieve some stunning battlefield victories in Irpin (Kyiv), Mykolayiv and the biggest of them all, Trostianets in Sumy oblast. The Ukrainians absolutely annihilated a large part of Russia’s supposed elite 4 th tank guards division there. The amount of destroyed and captured Russian equipment on OryxSpioenkop’s Twitter is simply stunning. Thanks to this action, Ukraine gained back control over a significant part of the border with Russian in Sumy oblast and the city of Sumy is no longer surrounded. The only place where the Russians gained some ground outside of Donbass, was in Slavutych, a small town less than ten kilometers from the border with Belarus where the Chernobyl workers live. I actually thought the Russians already controlled it. At the moment of writing the Russ...

Dear friends, family and colleagues, Today a shorter update and one that’s located geographically in Russia, more precisely, in the Kremlin. There’s definitely something going on there. Potential scenario’s that we absolutely need to discuss. Do I think the immediate position of Putin is in danger. Spoiler alert: no I don’t think so. My observations over the past couple of days 1.        Defense minister Sergei Shoigu hasn’t been seen for over more than two weeks. Considering that Russia wanted to present its invasion as a showcase military operation, this is really rather suspicious. Also Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov hasn’t been seen for an even longer period. 2.        There had been a death rumor of Vladimir Zhirinovsky. Russia’s ultranationalist. Although he is not part of Putin’s United Russia, he has been a very useful toy in the past for Putin in internal politics. The death rumor was even published on an offi...

Dear friends, family and colleagues, One month has now passed since the Russians started their “adventure” in Ukraine. For the past two days it can be decisively said that the Ukrainians have gone on the offensive around Kyiv and Kherson. Russian troops are exhausted there and either suffering from frostbite around Kherson (ironically like the Wehrmacht who were sent to Russia in summer uniforms) and wet feet around Kyiv where the Ukrainians flooded the main area they hold. It was already clear to me that especially around Kyiv the Russians gave up hope on proceeding with further offensives. Three days ago footage emerged that the Russians where moving their equipment in defensive earth berms. (1) Marina Medvin 🇺🇸 on Twitter: "The Kremlin's forces appear to be digging in a strong defensive position around Kyiv as satellite imagery released on Friday pictured what appear to be Russian mines planted northwest of the capital. https://t.co/k2OCzP9kaq" / Twitter This...

Dear friends, family and colleagues, After yesterdays special, it’s time for a good old update from the front. And it’s a tale of a change in tactics from both sides. Let’s start with the Ukrainians 1.        Behind the line attacks: the Ukrainians really are using the mostly stalled frontlines to their maximum advantage. Their primary targets are to hit the Russian supply lines as hard as possible. When looking at most maps of control, it can be seen that Russian has chipped off a belt of maximum 150 kilometers deep from the North, East and South. With in that small area of advance, already the Russians are facing huge challenges to keep the supply line going. The Ukrainians are active on the following fields a.        Railway destruction: It’s known that the Russian and Soviet armies always have to fight close to railway lines. As soon as they go too far away, they get into trouble. In the East of Kharkiv, Ukrainian fig...

Dear friends, family and colleagues, As indicated in the previous update, I will focus this post on a case study on how to deal with reports emerging from the battlefield and determining the truth or accuracy. This is most of the time a very painstaking, time consuming process. I prepared the following case the explain all the steps that are needed to perform accurate Battlefield Damage Assessment (BDA) on your own On March 7 th , the following report came out, where Ukraine claimed it destroyed 30 helicopters on Kherson air base Over 30 enemy helicopters destroyed in Kherson region overnight (ukrinform.net) After such an (obviously exciting) report, the following steps need to be taken. 1.        Especially claims from Twitter need to be taken with a grain of salt: try to notice the following signals: a.        Is it just one unique messages with some re-tweets? It means the claim is likely not true. It’s usually j...