Ukraine Blog 20 - Russia gets Izium, but the Clock is Ticking
Dear friends, families and colleagues,
We are well
into the sixth week of this mess and the fog of war is very, very thick. The
Ukrainian army made massive gains in the north and north-east and is pressing
hard on Kherson. The Russians took just one place. Unfortunately that’s the
very place that matters most to both parties, Izium. It was officially
confirmed by the Ukrainian command that the city fell. This will severely complicate
the Ukrainian defense efforts in the East. However, I don’t think the Russians
will be able to manage an effective encirclement of the Ukrainian Joint Group
of Forces, responsible for the defense of Donbass.
The main
reason for this, is that an evermore clearer picture starts to emerge what happened
with the Russian withdrawal defeat around Kyiv. This absolutely was not
a withdrawal, but a decisive defeat. There are a couple of main indicators
1. The amount of abandoned equipment the
Ukrainians captured is simply overwhelming. Among the captured equipment is
intact sophisticated electronic warfare equipment. Ukraine has captured
sufficient equipment to replenish their losses and deploy forces as reinforcements
to the south east.
2. The Russians didn’t even took the
bodies of their dead soldiers. The streets are full of dead Russian soldiers.
They didn’t even had time to recover them (or they simply don’t care).
3. The most obvious sign is that the
Russians suffered a defeat is that now for the first time the evidence of war
crimes is out in the open. I doubt that the Russian government wants the world
to see this. Over the past two days horrific footage emerged of hundreds of
civilians that were shot point blank with their hands on their back. The bodies
were left rotten on the street. I refrained myself from naming any Russian
actions war crimes in my past blog, because actually classifying something as
war crimes is a blurry exercise. But if you take the UN definition of war
crimes, it is clear without doubt that we have for the first time very clear
evidence of concrete war crimes
United Nations Office on Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect
I’m not going to link to photos and videos of the atrocities. They are
absolutely horrific, but in case you want to see for yourself: go to Twitter
and type “Bucha executions.”
The Russian
defeats show to me that we are seeing the first signs of a total disintegration
of the Russian army. At the moment the central command structure appears to
show early signs of a complete collapse. The situation is so bad that Putin now
is seriously considering appointing a central commander for the war effort in
Ukraine. This is something he should have done in the first place, as opposed
to four regional commanders who are competing for resources and influence. It's
likely Putin didn’t want there to be an individual who could surpass him
politically. The appointment of a central commander is both a good and a bad
thing for Ukraine and the West.
-It’s a bad thing, because this will actually
make commanding and coordinating the Russian army was easier and might give
them some results. This is what happens in every Western war effort and it’s crucial
to centralize the command of your war machine. Look at Norman Schwarzkopf in
Desert Storm and Tommy Franks in Operation Enduring Freedom
-It’s a good thing, because it shows that Putin
(as opposed to Hitler) still has some ability to reflect on the situation and
to change his approach. For me this is THE confirmation that Putin didn’t
completely lost it as a maniac in isolation. He more or less acknowledges: “Ok,
I’m not good at this, now I need to give the job back to the professionals.”
For the people who are scared of the nukes: this for me is a very comforting
signal.
But of
course, Putin needs to find a guy for the job. And I don’t think there will be
any senior Russian general who will volunteer for this job. In addition, I
think it’s simply too late for such a move.
1. He will have to deal not only with
Putin (bringing him many bad news messages), but also with Shoigu and Gerasimov.
This is like walking on a political minefield.
2. The first thing this new central
commander needs to do is making new organized units out of the remnants of
units that came out of the north and north-east of Ukraine. Some of them will
have to be completely reconstituted and re-equipped. The situation is so bad,
that remnants of various units need to be consolidated in temporary new units.
This needs to happen fast, otherwise you will be in the situation where, like Hitler,
Putin and his generals will be moving around formations on a map that no longer
exist.
3. I think there’s very little time left.
I believe we are witnessing the first phase of a complete disintegration of
frontline formations. Please don’t forget, the focus is on the seven generals
that Ukraine killed, but there are dozens and dozens of medium level officers
(kolonels and lieutenants) that were killed. We are now starting to see the
first cases where Russians soldiers simply get out of their uniforms and leave
all equipment and supplies behind.
More and more very old dilapidated Soviet
equipment starts to appear in videos where Ukrainians capture equipment, like
this ancient ZSU-23 Shilka anti-aircraft gun from the sixties. It shows that
Russia need to go deep in its equipment storages to replenish the losses.
I stated before
that Russia absolutely must achieve a tangible result before the end of April.
By the end of April all its resources will have been exhausted. However, I didn’t
anticipate a full collapse near Kyiv. I think we might see a total collapse
even sooner. If Russia doesn’t achieve a tangible limited victory by the 9th
of May, it means that their grand victory parade on the red square will become
a very humiliating display for Putin.
At the
moment of writing this, there’s very heavy fighting around Izium. According to
sketchy battlefield reports, the snow has started to melt and the fields next
to the roads changed into oceans of mud. This means Russian armor can’t leave
the roads. Based on earlier experiences it means that they will be extremely vulnerable
to Bayraktars and Javelin/NLAW missiles.
There’s one
other topic to talk about since it was mentioned in the previous post and it
concerns the supposed Ukrainian attack on an oil depot in Belgorod, Russia.
Like I said: the fog of war is thick, but interestingly enough, the Ukrainians
are denying that they carried out the attack and are hinting towards Russia as
planning a false flag attack.
I still think
it were the Ukrainians who carried out the attack and for the following reasons:
1. That oil depot is a high value strategic
military target. According to the laws of war, this is a target that can be
targeted under the current circumstances. The impact can already be felt for
Russian troops around Sumy and Izium.
2. In case Russia would have gone for a
false flag attack, it would have gone for a high casualty civilian target like
a train station or shopping mall.
I simply
can’t come up with a reason why Russia would for any reason sacrifice such a
very important strategic target. In my assessment only two scenarios could have
happened
1. The site was attacked by Russian
helicopters, but by Russian deserters. Like I said: we are now entering a phase
where Russian units starts to desert and actively resist deployment to Ukraine.
Hitting exactly this site, will make it hell of a lot more difficult to
transport troops to Ukraine and will likely contribute to saving at least some Russian
lives.
2. The attack was carried out by the
Ukrainians, but they want to keep it mysterious to prepare for future similar
attacks. Footage that I also shared in the previous blog showed that helicopters
were flying very low, below the radar. It’s quite possible that Russian air
defenses have never identified the helicopters. Therefore it’s quite possible that
Ukrainians want to keep the Russians in a state of uncertainty. Was it Ukraine
or did deserters do it?
Points to
watch for the next week will definitely be the continued fighting around Izium
and Kherson. For a very, very reliable source from Kherson, please follow the
Twitter account of Leo de Lange.
(1) Leo de Lange🔱🇺🇦 (@delangeleo) / Twitter
Leo is a
Dutch guy, who was until recently living the good life in Kherson. He now suddenly
finds him in the position of the Twitter member who is the most reliable source
of information on the ground in around Kherson. As seen so often in this war, life
can evolve in mysterious ways.
Best regards and "Slava Ukraini!"
Niels
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