Ukraine Blog 17 - Kremlin Drama

Dear friends, family and colleagues,

Today a shorter update and one that’s located geographically in Russia, more precisely, in the Kremlin. There’s definitely something going on there. Potential scenario’s that we absolutely need to discuss. Do I think the immediate position of Putin is in danger. Spoiler alert: no I don’t think so.

My observations over the past couple of days

1.       Defense minister Sergei Shoigu hasn’t been seen for over more than two weeks. Considering that Russia wanted to present its invasion as a showcase military operation, this is really rather suspicious. Also Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov hasn’t been seen for an even longer period.

2.       There had been a death rumor of Vladimir Zhirinovsky. Russia’s ultranationalist. Although he is not part of Putin’s United Russia, he has been a very useful toy in the past for Putin in internal politics. The death rumor was even published on an official channel, but quickly removed and replaced by a message that says that he’s in a “critical condition.”

3.       Generals Vladislav Yershov of the 6^th Combined Arms Army and Sergei Kisel, commander of the 1^st Guards Tank Army (a crack unit, considered to be the best of its kind before the invasion) have both been fired and reportingly even have been put under house arrest.

The real red flags are especially apparent when it comes to Shoigu. And to understand this, you have to understand Kremlin speak. The Kremlin released two (not so convincing) videos that he’s alive and well.

(5) NEXTA on Twitter: "After long rumors that Putin decided to remove Shoigu forever, they decided to show him on TV as participant of the government meeting. However, viewers noticed oddities during the broadcast. Pay attention to the top left corner. https://t.co/xZD1wFCbJU" / Twitter

(5) max seddon on Twitter: "It took two weeks, but Russia has finally released a slightly more convincing proof-of-life video of Sergei Shoigu after the defense minister vanished without explanation https://t.co/tt3db5PoyW" / Twitter

In the first video, he’s briefly visible on the top corner of the Zoom meeting before something very odd happens with the camera.

On the second video he’s talking in a normal way to military officials. What’s strange however, is that in the video the “special military operation” in Ukraine is not discussed. Most likely this video is old, even from before the war.

This is all has to do with how to interpret Kremlin speak. Like I said in a couple of blogs before

“Rumors: Over the years I became quite good in distinguishing what the Russians are saying versus what they are doing and most importantly: when they are lying. Basic rules are when there’s a rumor:

a. When there’s a rumor and it stays silent from the Kremlin for the next three days, it’s indeed a rumor.

b. When there’s a rumor, the Kremlin reacts within three days and they deny it: YOU KNOW IT’S GONNA HAPPEN! No exceptions to this rule.”

The fact that the Kremlin puts effort in releasing two videos to show that the old chap is alive, is very telling and a proof that something is definitely wrong here.

This is the classic tactic of putting up a smokescreen in authoritarian and totalitarian regimes. During Stalin’s reign quite a lot of officials suddenly became “ill” or had “accidents.” During a purge in North-Korea in 1990 over 200 officials had car accidents in country that barely had 100.000 cars at the time.

So what’s going on here. Well, I’m not a conspiracy theorist, so I’m just laying down the possible scenario’s

1.       Putin is angry and he wants to punish the people that “lied to him and betrayed” him. This is very common behavior among brutal dictators like Putin. Blame everyone, except yourself. The famous scene of Hitler breaking down in the movie “Der Untergang” is a perfect representation of this behavior.

Downfall (2004) - Clip 1: Steiner's Attack - YouTube

2.       Putin grows paranoid and doesn’t trust the people around him and he’s initiating a purge. There are two very good indicators for this scenario

a.       The isolation that Putin put himself in. The long tables. The speeches in his bunker where he’s alone and likely loses perspective on reality

b.       Three weeks ago there was wild Twitter activity posting rumors of Shoigu planning a coup in the week after

(5) Woros on Twitter: "*Take this with a very large grain of salt - Sergei Shoigu- #Russias MoD is planning to attempt a coup next week - #Putin is distancing himself between his inner circle Shoigu and Putin are best of friends aside from being in his cabinet so I highly doubt this. https://t.co/2oW19vvsq2" / Twitter

At the time I saw it just as the usual Twitter rumor mill and I didn’t post it in the blogs, but considering the current situation, I will 

3.       A variant of number 2: Putin has always been suspicious of the circle around him and he sees the current situation as the perfect opportunity to clean up the ranks. Shoigu and Putin were always seen as best buddies, with Shoigu spending vacations together in nature doing fishing etc. But it’s important to understand: a human life means very little to Putin even the lives of the ones close to him. This is very much in line with Stalin’s behavior, who even had people who fell out of the line and were executed, had their person removed from pictures with the great leader by the propaganda department. 

4.       In one of my first posts, I mentioned that I’m very convinced that the West has infiltrated the Kremlin on a very high level, most likely senior commander or cabinet minister. This because the accuracy of the intelligence coming out of Russia is so precise and on point. Never during the Cold War was the level of intelligence this good. The thing is: this flow of intelligence doesn’t seem to have stopped and the source likely has not yet been compromised. It’s very well possible that Putin and his Presidential Security Service (this is not the FSB!) are actively hunting the Western mole and they are prepared to go to great lengths to find him.

I don’t know which of the four scenario’s is likely, but I do feel comfortable enough to say that either one or a combination of the four scenario’s is currently happening. Only time will tell how this will evolve. However, two things are important to note here:

1.       I don’t think Putin’s position is in danger right now and that there will be a coup in the short term. Putin is still very much in charge and I don’t see signs his grip on power is weakening.

2.       Although Putin’s position seems still safe, a situation like this, is only increasing the problems  for the already disastrous Russian invasion. This will only increase the atmosphere in the Russian command of distrust and competition to suck up to the boss. This will mean commanders will likely cooperate even less with each other and will lead to an accelerating breakdown of the Russian command structure.

Best regards and "Slava Ukraini!"

Niels