Ukraine Blog 18 - The Battle for Helm's Deep
Dear friends, family and colleagues,
We have started to arrive on the point
where we can roughly determine where this will lead to on the battlefield. Over
the past couple of days the Ukrainians managed to achieve some stunning
battlefield victories in Irpin (Kyiv), Mykolayiv and the biggest of them all,
Trostianets in Sumy oblast. The Ukrainians absolutely annihilated a large part
of Russia’s supposed elite 4th tank guards division there. The
amount of destroyed and captured Russian equipment on OryxSpioenkop’s Twitter
is simply stunning. Thanks to this action, Ukraine gained back control over a
significant part of the border with Russian in Sumy oblast and the city of Sumy
is no longer surrounded.
The only place where the Russians gained
some ground outside of Donbass, was in Slavutych, a small town less than ten
kilometers from the border with Belarus where the Chernobyl workers live. I
actually thought the Russians already controlled it. At the moment of writing
the Russian defense ministry announced that they “are going to fundamentally
cut back military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernihiv.” Those are
the fronts where they are currently losing big time. Does this mean that the
Russians are giving up? Far from it. Russia is just re-assessing its war goals
and it seems they seem to scale down to just focus on capturing the Donbass
region. This is the minimal thing that Russia needs to achieve to claim some
kind of victory.
All those Russians soldiers will likely be
redeployed to one of the two places that will determine the outcome of the war
and the future of Ukraine, namely the small city of Izium in Kharkiv oblast. Over
the past weeks brutal fighting has taken place in this city. At one point the
Russians almost captured it, but the Ukrainians managed to push the Russians
back time and again. This city is absolutely crucial for both parties. In case
Russia manages to capture Izium, it can push south, link up with troops from
the Southern front and encircle the Ukrainian Eastern group of forces (tens of
thousands of soldiers). These Ukrainian troops are currently holding the line
against the Russian army on the Donetsk fronts. Therefore Ukraine can’t
withdraw these troops to a safer place. It would mean the Donbass front will
collapse.
Both parties have suffered terrible losses
there and it seems that Russia is putting all its efforts on Izium. Every unit,
piece of equipment and every person that’s able to pick up a rifle is going to
that town. Russia seems to put everything on the numbers and not the tactics.
Given that their troops are already demoralized and suffered terrible equipment
losses (and their terrible tactics so far), I give the Ukrainians a good change
to hold the line in Izium. In addition I think it’s really doubtful that Russia
can muster sufficient forces to close the Ukrainian Easter group in a pocket. When
during the Second World War, they allies closed of the Falaise pocket in
Normandy, they needed tens of thousands of soldiers for that. Russia can do it,
but it means that they will have to let go of everything else. I see them
making serious preparations for this scenario.
In case Ukraine can
1.
Hold the line in Izium
2.
Hold the Russians back in
Mykoliyiv and quite possibly even recapture Kherson
The Russian war effort will be in serious
danger. Russia will have essentially withdrawn from all its previous gains to
focus on one big price. If you thought Putin made a gamble by invading Ukraine
in the first place: that was only the start. His bet is really now on making at
least a tangible gain in the Donbass. Putin is desperate for a victory. Mariupol
isn’t going that smooth as well and I think it would still take many weeks
before Russia can declare victory in Mariupol. Please take note of the words of
these Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) soldier.
And please don’t be fooled again by the
negotiations in Turkey and the statement that Russia is withdrawing troops from
around Kyiv to “give peace a chance.” This is only meant to buy time, reorganize,
reconstitute and move troops to the direction of Izium. Russia absolutely can’t
be trusted in any way in any negotiation. The only time when we can trust the
Russians, is when they unilaterally start to withdraw from Ukraine without
putting forward any conditions.
In addition, Russia’s announcement with
regards to a drawdown of Kyiv and Chernihiv can absolutely be interpreted as a
defeat on those fronts. It also means that where I already thought it was very
unlikely Lukashenko would join the war, that chance has absolutely been reduced
to almost nihil.
And Russian perspectives are bleak. We deep
in week five of the invasion and Russia still has no complete air superiority. And
it starts to become more clear to me why by the day. Two interesting mainstream
media reports were published about the Ukrainian air force. Those are must
reads/watch!
1. Ukrainian pilot on the race to prevent Russia gaining full control of the skies above Ukraine - CNN
2. DISPATCH: Interview With a Ukrainian MiG-29 Pilot (coffeeordie.com)
Both articles show that Ukrainian pilots
received training from the best U.S. Air Force pilots. It also indicates that
Ukrainian aircraft moved away from traditional air bases to pieces of road that
could be converted to an airstrip. By flying very low under the radar, only to
sneak up when spotting Russian planes, the Ukrainian pilots are using skill,
creativity, training and motivation in perfect synergy. I was skeptical about
the “Ghost of Kyiv” story, but after seeing this, it sounds way more convincing
to me.
And Russia just keeps on losing three to
four aircraft a day. And this is devastating in a modern air force. Not a lot
of people understand, but in the First and Second World Wars, aircraft losses
could be easily replaced. Building a new aircraft could be done in days on
massive production lines with cheap easily available materials with relatively
low skilled labor. It takes at least six months to build one modern fighter jet
like the SU-30, SU-34 or SU-35. They require high skill labor, extensive
testing and expensive materials that are for Russia harder and harder to get. In
addition, they are full with complex computer systems, that need extensive
training to operate. Russia is currently losing their best pilots that are also
needed for training. If this continues for another month, Russia’s air force
won’t be a the same level within the next ten years as it was before the
invasion.
The ground forces are not doing better. In
my early blogs I wrote that Russia has giant reserves of equipment in storage
that they could bring into the fight when needed. A senior Russian army officer
complained that actually only ten percent of the tanks in storage are in working
condition. This means Russia can bring only around a thousand tanks in storage
into the fight. The rest have no engines, weapons systems, hydraulics etc.
These parts have most likely been sold off by corrupt officers. This once again
shows that is very difficult to perform a sustained military operation under
the leadership of a corrupt dictator with a corrupt army. Putin in that sense
will pay the price for his corrupt reign.
A full scale battle around Izium will
likely start within a couple of days. It feels like a real life battle of
Helm’s Deep is about to start…
Best regards and "Slava Ukraini!"
Niels
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