Ukraine Blog 58 – Game of Thrones

Dear friends, family and colleagues,

For the past two days I have been contemplating about the next blog: battlefield update or the Game of Thrones that’s going on in Russia. You see, we are leaving Lord of the Rings analogies here and entering a true Game of Thrones. As such, I have chosen to focus on Russia, because what happened there on Saturday has severe implications for the global security architecture for the rest of the 21st century and will ultimately lead to the only ticket out of this mess for Ukraine.

So on Saturday very early morning messages started to flow in that Wagner PMC mercenary forces led by Yevgeny Prigozhin captured a couple of cities and were marching on Moscow. After some impressive aerial shootdowns, the march ended as abruptly as it started. I got a lot of you on Whatsapp that were in utter state of confusion. To be honest, it took me a couple of days to figure out what happened. But the picture is clear now and in short, the chaos Russia is heading to will be more apocalyptic and brutal than I could ever imagine. Let’s dive into this.

1.       Why started Prigozhin the march and ultimately accepted a deal that strips him at least from a significant part of his militia and puts him effectively in exile? I think Prigozhin realized that it was game over for Wagner. His main opponent, Russia’s powerful defense minister Sergei Shoigu issued a decree recently that stated that all private military companies must sign a contract with the Russian ministry of defense, effectively ending their existence as independent entities. It was clear that Shoigu had broad support for this move from Putin. For Prigozhin there was essentially no escape from this. Realizing it was over, Prigozhin likely decided that he would go down, but not without exposing Vladimir Putin’s ultimate Achilles heel with a march on Moscow. Knowing that he would likely not be able to capture Moscow, exposing the Czar is worth a private army.

2.       I saw a lot of messages on the internet speculating whether this might have been a plot by Prigozhin and Putin together for the purpose of putting on an internal political show. I think this is very unlikely by simply looking at Putin. In the 23 year that I have studied this individual, I have never seen him so angry and losing his cool. In the two short pre-recorded speeches that he gave, I saw a man frustrated with pure anger and rage. This is because Prigozhin hit Putin exactly in the one spot where it hurts most. Putin’s greatest fear is being betrayed. Not that this has not happened before, but this is the first time in Putin’s entire life that he was betrayed in public out for the whole world to see. This is the first significant visible crack in Putin’s regime (though we need a couple more). Although his public performance of the past three months was already weak, it was nothing compared to what we have seen over the past week. I think the events affected him in such a way that for the first time I have doubts whether he is still a rational actor.

 Putin’s presentation as a rational actor was always crucial in my analysis of him. It could explain even the worst decisions Russia has made on the ground in Ukraine. So why do I start to have doubts: In my view, there were only two Russian commanders that showed some form of intelligence while fighting in Ukraine: Prigozhin and the commander of Russia’s Aerospace forces, Sergey Surovikin. Both achieved tactical successes and were able to conduct relatively effective military operations (by Russian standards). With Prigozhin going into exile, there are persistent reports that Surovikin (who is an honorable member of Wagner PMC and chose the side of Prigozhin in the past, has been arrested. This means that the only two capable guys that Russia ever managed to field its military adventure in Ukraine will now be removed from the plot. This all has to do with what Putin finally displays with what many scholars suspected for many years: Putin only cares about loyalty and nothing else. To him it doesn’t matter whether you achieve something in your role. You only have to be loyal to him. This explains why a military incompetent man like Shoigu can get away with almost everything

1.       Shoigu in his role as defense minister never made on one single instance impact on the battlefield

2.       Billions that could have been used to actually create a functioning Russian military disappeared in the pockets of him and his family. Shoigu is known to have built dozens of lavish mansions in Tuvan style (his ethnic background) and the showbiz presentation of his family members

3.       When Prigozhin, he completely remained silent, disappeared (reportedly even fled) and in the end the day needed to be saved by Belarussian dictator Alexander Lukashenko.

The only reason Shoigu is allowed to stay is because he still kisses the ring of the Czar. 

In the days after Prigozhin’s march, Putin’s gang of Siloviki (the elite) tried everything to show that everything was back to normal or even denying that something happened at all. This will likely work for Russia’s depoliticised majority of the population, but inside the Russian power structures, all bets are on. Everything that happened on Saturday for the first time opened the question: “Could there be an alternative to Putin?” How was it possible that a convicted hot-dog seller, turned caterer, turned mercenary, managed to shake the entire system of power in the Kremlin.

Where we already had players like Prigozhin, Ramzan Kadyrov, Shoigu and Gerasimov, a whole new range of actors are now popping up. 

1.       Aleksey Dyumin: the current governor of Tula and Putin’s former bodyguard and former deputy minister of defense (something with loyalty). Tula is the province where Prigozhin ended his march. It’s rumored that Dyumin played a crucial role in persuading Prigozhin to give up the march. Given Putin’s shaky position, there are all kinds of wild rumors going on that he might become the designated successor of Putin. He might be loyal to Putin, but I think he lacks the required universal approval of the Siloviki

2.       Viktor Zolotov: The equally incompetent commander of Russia’s National Guard (Rosgvardiya). As part of the deal, the heavy equipment of Wagner PMC (tanks, APC’s and artillery) will go to Rosgvardiya. I think Putin realized that since his whole army is in Ukraine, he needs some kind of Praetorian Guard to protect his regime against potential insurrection. Although Rosgvardiya had some heavier units, it will now transition to a more army-like force. This means Zolotov will command the single best armed ground army on Russian soil given that Wagner will be eliminated and Russia’s regular army is being destroyed on Ukrainian soil.

3.       There are various other PMC’s that need to sign contracts with the ministry of defense. For example Gazprom company created a PMC to protect its staff/secure new gas extraction areas. They will likely be encouraged by Prigozhin’s act.

Can the Russian Federation still survive? Well, even if (and it’s a big if) Putin gets his stuff together and starts acting as a leader again, he will have to seriously think about appointing and grooming a successor. However, I think it’s far more likely more actors will make an effort or will start to secure their interests now that the cloak of strength has been removed from Putin. Problematic for the Russian Federation is that none of the actors I described is strong enough on its own to secure a victory in a fight. Russia is heading for a disastrous, incredibly destructive civil war. I don’t see a way to avoid it anymore. 

In short, what we have seen has not ended, it was only the beginning. The only party for which this whole drama was good, was Ukraine. More about that in the next (battlefield blog).

Слава Україні!

Niels