Ukraine Blog 65 – Amateurs talk Strategy, Professionals talk Logistics
Dear friends, family and colleagues,
I know it
has been ages since I wrote something about the necessary works of our
Ukrainian defenders. I have been busy exploring new spots in the world and
focusing on personal activities like walking the Nijmeegse 4Daagse. However, I
understand that after last week’s mind blowing offensive and decisive
breakthrough by Ukraine in Kursk oblast, I can’t remain silent.
To be
honest, I had an incredibly hard time trying to determine what Ukraine’s
objective is here. In the press and the blog community usually the following
three objectives are discussed.
- Ukraine will conquer Russian
land to later use as a bargain to get its land back. While every square
kilometer of Russian land occupied will help Ukraine in possible future
negotiations, you have to realize that Russia currently occupies 107.000
square kilometers of Ukraine. Ukraine has now occupied a little over a
1000 square kilometers. It means that Ukraine has to occupy at least the
whole of Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk oblasts to come even close to what
Russia occupies. While the Ukrainians show a masterclass in maneuver
warfare, I don’t think Ukrainian logistics can sustain such a deep
operation. In addition, Ukraine will have to occupy this land and take
care of it for a foreseeable period. I would say this will become a
liability pretty soon for the Ukrainian army.
- Ukraine will capture the Kursk
nuclear power plant in exchange for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
A bit more plausible, but Vladimir Putin really doesn’t care about who
occupies which nuclear power plant (more about that later).
- Ukraine uses the attack as a
diversion or preparation for a breakthrough in Ukraine itself. Again to
the untrained military mind this makes sense. However, last year we saw
Ukraine’s counteroffensive fail because of an immense thickness of
anti-tank mines, Anti-Tank-Guided-Weapons teams (ATGM) on higher ground
that were picking off Ukrainian armor. Russian manpower was not the
decisive factor in the Russian defense. Even if the Russians would
withdraw half their manpower, the chance for a Ukrainian breakthrough
would increase by only 10 percent. I think Ukraine knows that, so why
invest in this.
We’re now a
week into this and there are two interesting observations happening
- Ukraine’s advances coincide
with Ukraine taking massive numbers of prisoners of war (POW’s). This has
not happened before in the war. The reason is that Russia by Russian law
can’t deploy conscripts on Ukrainian territory (even though the same
Russian law declares it annexed territory). So the men deployed in Ukraine
have, although poorly trained and equipped, more motivation to fight
because of financial incentives or simply because they are Z-patriots. The
conscripts are so poorly motivated that they don't even want to defend
their own country. Large numbers of prisoners is good in any case. Every
one of them will save a Ukrainian life.
I think there might be possible three (not
mutually exclusive) reasons for that:
a. Putin and the Russian command
genuinely think they can stop the Ukrainian army in Kursk oblast by keeping
deploying the conscripts: We know from the past that the Russian command and
leadership is very poorly informed about the situation on the ground so they
might think this will stop the leak.
b. The command is actually aware that
the logistical situation of the Russian military is so bad, that starting a
large logistics operation to move massive amounts of manpower and equipment
thousands of kilometers will lead to a collapse of Russian infrastructure.
c. Putin’s mystical vision: The Russian
army keeps pushing incredibly hard in the direction of Pokrovsk, the main
Ukrainian garrison city in Donetsk oblast. The Ukrainian breakthrough didn’t
slow down the push. Actually the Russians are pushing even harder and are not
drawing resources and manpower away. I think this has to do with Putin still
being firmly in charge. And for Putin losing Kursk and Belgorod oblast is not a
disaster. He sees Ukraine as the mythical birthplace of the Russian world.
Ukraine is now on the territory of Kievan Rus, the empire founded by Oleg the
Wise in 880. Putin sees himself as the god given prince to restore this empire
back to its roots. Losing villages or even cities in the rural periphery of
what is now the Russian federation is perfectly fine for him, but abandoning
the restoration of Kievan Rus is not. Please watch the following to videos of
Vlad Vexler for the full context
THIS explains
why Russia starts insane wars (youtube.com)
Will Kursk
Rock Putin's Grip on Power? - YouTube
- Contrary to what the media and
a lot of bloggers expected. Russia is not transferring in large numbers
manpower and resources from the occupied areas of Ukraine
Russia
is not redeploying units from Donetsk region to Kursk (espreso.tv)
- The Ukrainians are not
advancing in one or multiple directions, but instead mobile mechanized
groups are roaming around, hitting the Russians while they are on the move
and disappearing quickly after. Where they can hold territory, they hold
it, but it doesn’t appear to be a main objective for the Ukrainians. This
makes it a nightmare for the Russians to determine where they should
allocate their resources and almost impossible to stabilize the situation.
Russian logistics need to remain on the move and get exhausted.
- The other area where Ukraine
struck very hard over the past couple of months, is Crimea and it very
specifically targeted Russian logistics there, like car harbors and car ferries.
Especially
point 3 and 4 makes me to believe that the Ukrainian course of action and
objective will be as follows:
- Ukraine will continue to push
in Kursk (and later Belgorod) oblast wherever it can. If it can push till
Kursk city, it will push there. If it can push beyond Kursk, it will do
that. But capturing towns and land will not be the main priority.
Pre-condition is that Ukrainian troops remain capable of operating as
highly mobile units.
- Whether it will happen with the
Ukrainians capturing 10 kilometers of territory more or they have to take
Kursk or even beyond. There will be a point that Russia will be forced to
bring in the better motivated troops from Ukraine back to Russia. This is the
moment Russia will have to put an unprecedented strain on its logistics.
And I think this is the main objective for Ukraine. Not to make sure the
frontlines in Ukraine get weaker, but to put such a heavy burden on the
logistical system of Russia that it implodes. We already see the first
signs of this happening.
a. Not a week goes by without at least
one plane falling from the sky in Russia not due to enemy fire, but because of
accidents. Russia is running out of spare parts and it’s running out fast
b. The Russian railway network, which
is the beating heart of its military, is currently already in the state of
collapse. Trains come to a standstill en masse and due to sanctions (which
always had an effect, but the secondary sanctions are really devastating).
Putting just a little bit more strain on this network will force Russia to a
complete standstill. Trent Telenko, who got mocked in the blogger community for
being the “Tire Guy (because yeah he talks a lot about tires)” predicted this a
long time ago and this seems finally happening.
And when
Russian logistics will finally collapse, the whole country will come to a
standstill. And having Ukraine with a maneuver combined arms army on the other
side of the negotiating table could produce an interesting outcome on the
negotiating table.
Every day I
see it more heading in this direction and the saying “Amateurs talk Strategy,
Professionals talk Logistics,” will again prove to be the decisive factor in
this war.
"Slava
Ukraini!",
Niels
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