SpectralTransition - Views and Updates on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Dear friends, family and colleagues, When you read the media in the West, it appears that the war in Ukraine has come to a standstill after the fall of Kherson. I can tell you, that’s far from the truth. All parties involved are setting the stage for the next play which will be very brutal. Since Ukraine liberated Kherson, both parties have been bringing the troops that have been freed up as a consequence to other theatres. The Russians have about 20.000 extra troops available now and the Ukrainians about 40.000. Besides that the numbers are in favor of Ukraine, they are also better equipped, trained and motivated. However, I don’t expect the Ukrainians to start their big attack on Melitopol before the hard frost really sets in. Over the past few weeks it has been raining in Ukraine and the ground is muddy and wet. It’s almost impossible for wheeled vehicles to move in and also tracked vehicles are having a very hard time. When the frost really sets in, the ground will freeze and...

Dear friends, family and colleagues, Kherson and the watermelons. The question on everybody’s mind was: why I changed my Whatsapp profile picture to a watermelon. Three months ago, I promised myself to do that one day before Ukraine would liberate Kherson. The reason: the Kherson region is known across all of Ukraine because of its watermelons. In the city of Hola Prystan there’s even an annual water melon festival and every Ukrainian will get the connection. I was wrong about the timeframe, but the way Ukraine liberated Kherson was exactly how I expected it to be. From blog 40: “But the strategy of Ukraine is clear here. Everything is aimed at degrading Russian capabilities in order to avoid costly assaults on Russian strongholds and most of all: to avoid urban combat. ” In the end Ukraine didn’t fire a single shot while retaking Kherson city. The city is mostly intact which means no new Mariupol. This makes the liberation of Kherson not only a symbolic heavy moral boast, but ...

 Dear friends, family and colleagues, It has been a while since the last update. Does it mean that the frontlines in Ukraine are quiet? Far from it. We are reaching record numbers of Russian casualties. These increased casualties are not the result of Ukrainian offensive actions, but the Russians throwing large numbers of mobilized personnel (Mobiks) on the frontlines in a typical World War I fashion. In addition, the Russians not only throw Mobiks in the meatgrinder, but also two of their last remaining elite formations, 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade and the 40th Krasnodar-Harbin Naval Infantry Brigade. Especially the deployment (and destruction) of those two naval infantry elements is significant. So let’s have a look what’s happening here. Last week, the Russians launched a big assault on the town of Pavlivka south-west of Donetsk city. In the day after it, Ukraine reported 950 Russians KIA followed by a steady amount of around 800 Russian KIA per day in the following ...