Ukraine Blog 50 – Turkish Delight
Dear friends, family and colleagues,
When you
read the media in the West, it appears that the war in Ukraine has come to a
standstill after the fall of Kherson. I can tell you, that’s far from the truth.
All parties involved are setting the stage for the next play which will be very
brutal.
Since
Ukraine liberated Kherson, both parties have been bringing the troops that have
been freed up as a consequence to other theatres. The Russians have about 20.000
extra troops available now and the Ukrainians about 40.000. Besides that the
numbers are in favor of Ukraine, they are also better equipped, trained and
motivated.
However, I
don’t expect the Ukrainians to start their big attack on Melitopol before the
hard frost really sets in. Over the past few weeks it has been raining in
Ukraine and the ground is muddy and wet. It’s almost impossible for wheeled vehicles
to move in and also tracked vehicles are having a very hard time. When the
frost really sets in, the ground will freeze and this will give the Ukrainians
the opportunity to restart their now famous mechanized combined arms
operations. But there’s another reason why the Ukrainians are waiting right
now. When temperatures drop to below -10 C, combined with the very strong
seasonal wind coming from the Carpathians, more Russians will killed by hypothermia
than the Ukrainian army ever will. The Ukrainians already asked their allies in
the summer to start producing and delivering winter uniforms for their army. In
the Baltic countries and Poland many people, including the elderly, have been
working overtime to produce as many winter uniforms as possible.
The Russians
on the other hand, didn’t put any effort on equipping their soldiers with even
proper summer uniforms. Some of the mobilized “Mobiks” are being sent without
uniforms. Although the frost has been light so far in Ukraine (this week, we can
expect the first dramatic drop of temperatures), already many videos have come
out of Russians that are lying in the field, still alive and barely reacting to
exploding grenades around them.
This has to
do with your body essentially starting to give up on vital functions. Once you
pass a particular point, it will be very hard to recover from hypothermia even
after you start to wear proper winter clothes. I do expect the Ukrainians to
give the Russians at least two weeks of hard winter before they start to
advance. By that time, the basic function, like reacting to simple instructions
will be gone for most Russian soldiers. I absolutely do expect the Ukrainians
to make a move on Melitopol. Especially since the liberation of Kherson, most
of the logistical routes coming from Crimea are within HIMARS range with the exception
of the town of Heniches'k. However, there’re two initiatives going on to bring Heniches'k
within range.
1. Boeing offered the Pentagon to deliver
the brand-new Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) to Ukraine. This is a
combination of a GBU-39 aircraft delivered munition, that thanks to an added
glide package can be launched from an HIMARS or M270 MLRS platform. The
explosive yield is far bigger than an M30/M31 HIMARS rocket and the range is around
150 kilometers, bringing Heniches'k easily within range.
2. Turkey started to deliver TRLG-230
MLRS systems to Ukraine. Official range is 70 kilometers, but unofficial range
is around 120 kilometers. The accuracy is similar to HIMARS, so less than a
meter. They have already been supplied and confirmed to have been used in
action.
And we need
to talk a bit more about Turkey. To me it was always clear that Turkish
president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is the biggest hater of Putin. The relationship
between the two is hard to follow for some outsiders. In 2015 Turkey shot down
a Russian SU-24 plane above Syria that violated Turkish airspace (already, despite
all the bravado, Russia never executed any response). However, barely two years
later, Russia delivered one of its most advance air defense system, S-400, to
Ankara. Also during the Ukraine war, Turkey continued to deliver Bayraktar TB-2’s
to Ukraine, while at the same time Erdoğan continued to meet with Putin regularly.
There are
two leaders that have always been a headache for Putin, Belarussian president
Aleksandr Lukashenko and Erdoğan. For the simple reason that both of them are as
escalatory as him and even more unpredictable. Where Putin was perfectly able
to deal with incompetent and appeasing leaders like Angela Merkel and Emmanuel
Macron, Putin always wore special gloves when dealing with Lukashenko and Erdoğan.
When it comes to Erdoğan, I’m convinced, he hates Putin to the core and he
always did. What’s also known about Erdoğan, is his iron patience. He waited
simply for the moment that Russian weakness was out in the open for everyone to
see in order to take his chance.
This became
clear to me last month when Erdoğan absolutely humiliated Putin. In the first
months of the war, Ukraine wasn’t able to export any grain because of the fear
of the “mighty” Russian Black Sea fleet. In the summer, thanks to mediation of Erdoğan,
Russia agreed to Ukraine exporting food via Odessa. On the 29th of October,
Ukraine attacked the Black sea fleet in its home base, Sevastopol. Russia was
so angry that it cancelled the grain deal and threatened to attack the ships coming
out of Odessa. This is when Sevastopol Erdoğan flexed his muscles and
ensured Turkish naval protection. Dozens of ships ventured out of Odessa, went
through the Bosperus and none of them were attacked. This was a moment of
absolute humiliation for Putin and once again showed that Putin can easily be
stopped if you show that you have balls.
For me it’s
clear, Turkey sees the moment is now (just as with countries like the Baltics
and Poland). It’s no secret that Erdoğan always dreamed of a pan-Turkish dream
where all the Turkish speaking countries (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan,
Uzbekistan and certain Russian republics) are aligned in one big economic and
political power block similar to NATO and the EU. Russia was always the main
barrier to achieving this goal.
So are the
Russians completely down and out. Unfortunately still far from it. This all has
to do with the fact the Russians finally have unified force command that actually
is able to put his mark on the Russian war effort, Sergey Surovikin. This man
is absolutely ruthless and has zero value for a human life. However, as a soldier
he’s really professional. I have the impression that unlike commanders like Sergei
Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, he stays out of politics and focusses purely on
the mission. The first Russian commander to that. Surovikin understood that
holding on to Kherson was hopeless. But to dive a little bit into what Surovikin
is up to, we need to dive into Ukrainian loss reports.
1. Since the liberation of Kherson, the
Ukrainians report very low Russian equipment losses, one or two tanks a day,
but still very high personal numbers (500 to 700 per day). I don’t think that
Russian equipment levels are that low yet. What I think Surovikin is trying to
achieve, is the following: he tries to plug the front with massive infantry
assaults that are not supported by armored vehicles. In the meantime, more
Mobiks are being trained in Russia on real equipment. Though still large
numbers of Mobiks are being send untrained, there are now also large training programs
taking place in Russia. I do expect these regenerated units to deploy to
Ukraine in the medium term that are again equipped with a fair share of armored
vehicles. Not that this will make a difference though. Training is not even a
fraction of NATO basic standards and the equipment keeps on getting older and
older.
2. Since Surovikin’s previous main role was commander of the air force (he still officially is, a fair share of his attention goes to air force. It’s pretty well known in the Western media that his strategy is to target Ukrainian critical infrastructure in order to exhaust the Ukrainians. That’s certainly the case, but when looking at the Ukrainian daily loss reports, something else is going on. From August till early November, the Ukrainians reported between two to five helicopter and aircraft losses per day. Since the fall of Kherson till today (we will come to that a little later) none. I think that Surovikin is taking the most modern part of the Russian air force out of the fight for now to perform much needed maintenance. Russia’s SU-30, SU-34, SU-35 and older SU-25 have been in war operation for 18 months. This will take a heavy toll on the air frames. All of the surviving aircraft (a lot of them have been lost) need at least a mid-life overhaul right now. The clearest indication of that, is the Ukrainian loss report of today. For the first time an older SU-24 was reported as an in theatre loss. This type hasn’t been seen before on the Ukrainian battlefield and was thought to have been largely replaced by the SU-34.
Just as with the Mobiks on the ground, I
suspect Surovikin wants to plug the holes with older planes in order to repair
the newer aircraft for future operations. It has to be said: his moves are not
dumb considering the circumstances. Considering the fact that he’s been the
commander for little over a month and already managed to put a positive mark across
the boards, is rather impressive.
So, will it
make a difference? No, Russia simply lost to many junior and medior officers to
execute sustainable force regeneration efforts. In addition, Surovikin won’t be
able to fight against the suffocating corruption that strangles the Russian
military. And I have the perfect example below.
Remember that
in the previous blog (49), I was worried about the Zala Lancet loitering drone
strikes? Russian sources posted many videos, mostly coming out of the Pavlivka
theatre.
It now
turns out, that although the camera and guidance system are impressive, the
payload delivery and explosive yield is laughable. As can be seen in the
following footage, something is very seriously wrong with the Lancet drones.
What we are
seeing is a post-strike assessment by Ukrainians in the field. Just to be
clear: we are talking about an unarmored ancient D-20 152 mm howitzer. The only
damage the Lancet managed to inflict, is a flat tire. When you look closely,
you don’t even see shrapnel damage near the barrel and the front plate. The
payload supposedly consists of metal rods used for reinforced concrete. We have
also seen a hit on a French CESAR howitzers. Considering this is an armored
modern mechanized howitzer, I’m very much convinced that all equipment hit by Lancets,
can easily be recovered and repaired. The only serious damage a Lancet can
inflict is probably when it manages to hit the ammo compartment within a self-propelled
howitzer. This was also a learning moment for me. Russian propaganda strikes
might look impressive, but it’s the end result that counts. One of the few
worries I had, is now mitigated. Up to victory!
Слава Україні!
Niels
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