Ukraine Blog 48 – Losses and Lancet’s
Dear friends, family and colleagues,
It has been
a while since the last update. Does it mean that the frontlines in Ukraine are
quiet? Far from it. We are reaching record numbers of Russian casualties. These
increased casualties are not the result of Ukrainian offensive actions, but the
Russians throwing large numbers of mobilized personnel (Mobiks) on the
frontlines in a typical World War I fashion. In addition, the Russians not only
throw Mobiks in the meatgrinder, but also two of their last remaining elite
formations, 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade and the 40th Krasnodar-Harbin
Naval Infantry Brigade.
Especially
the deployment (and destruction) of those two naval infantry elements is
significant. So let’s have a look what’s happening here. Last week, the
Russians launched a big assault on the town of Pavlivka south-west of Donetsk
city. In the day after it, Ukraine reported 950 Russians KIA followed by a
steady amount of around 800 Russian KIA per day in the following week. In the
end, the main Russian trust has been defeated with more than 50 percent of the
155th and 40th Brigades KIA/WIA/MIA. It’s reported the
Ukrainians took positions in high rise building on the high ground and
absolutely massacred the advancing Russian Armor with artillery and ATGM
missiles.
Again, I absolutely don’t doubt the
Ukrainian casualty claims. On Russian Telegram channels I have seen dozens of
videos where the battlefields are littered with Russian bodies. Advancing waves
of Russian troops literally have to step on their dead predecessors to advance.
Rumor is that the Russian military completely ceased to recover the bodies of
their soldiers in order to avoid paying out compensation to families.
So why are the Russians so desperate, that
they throw one of their last couple of “elite” brigades in the Ukrainian meat
grinder in an area like Pavlivka? There are two reasons for this:
1. The impending withdrawal from Kherson: The question that is on everyone’s mind is: Are the Russians going to leave Kherson and if so, when? I think that the Russians already decided to leave Kherson at the end of September. The reason is that the Russians are building extensive defense layers on the Eastern bank of the Dnipro river in a similar way they are dividing Luhansk oblast in two with a similar defensive line. I think the Russian general staff decided to make sure that Russia can at least preserve the land bridge to Crimea.
There’re multiple problems here. In order to keep the land bridge, Russia has to secure a Ground Line of Communication (GLOC). This week it became clear that there won’t be any main rail traffic of the Kerch bridge that Ukraine partially destroyed until September 2022. This means that without a secured GLOC over the land bridge running through Zaporizhzhia oblast, the whole Russian effort in Ukraine will be in jeopardy. Since the Russians lost Kupyiansk as well, there’s only one GLOC candidate in the whole south. This is the railway line from Donetsk city to Volnovakha. Russia already controls this railway line, but it’s well within range of Ukrainian short-range artillery based in Vuhledar and Pavlivka and therefore not usable for the Russians. In other words, before the Russians can think about leaving Kherson and consolidating in the South, they need to secure the GLOC.
The Russians most likely
made a horrible bet here. They assumed that the Naval infantry assault would provide
them with success. They made it worse on two points
a.
The
155th and 40th Brigades were located north of Melitopol
and Tokmak, the most critical breakthrough point in the South. It means that
this critical point, is now only manned by Mobiks. In case Ukraine choses to go
on the offensive there, nothing will stop them.
b. The other remaining elite units, the VDV airborne 7th, 76th, 98th and 106th Divisions are still on the West bank of the Dnipro River and further isolated than ever. These are the last combat capable Russian units, fighting on roughly the same level as regular U.S. army infantry units. Russia hoped to secure a GLOC to withdraw them to safety. As a result, these units are in an even more perilous position.
2.
Regime
infighting: As can be seen across Russian Telegram channels, the surviving
soldiers of the 155th brigade are absolutely spitting blood and
fire. Excerpts of it can be read on the excellent Twitter feed of
WarTranslated.
The problem for
the Kremlin is, that these are not expendable Mobiks, but elite soldiers that
are related in some case to quite some important figures high up in the
Siloviki command chain. We spoke a couple of weeks ago, how Yevgeny Prigozhin faction
(chairman of the Wagner PMC) is slowly, but steadily increasing his influence
as a parallel state in Russia. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov is part of that
faction. Prigozhin is increasing the influence the influence of Kadyrov by
convincing Putin to appoint fellow North-Caucasian decision makers in key
positions. One of these appointments, was the appointment of Dagastani general Rustam
Muradov as commander of the Eastern Military District… exactly the district the
155th and 40th brigades of Naval Infantry fall under. The
surviving soldiers and milbloggers specifically target their criticism towards
Muradov. Prigozhin and Kadyrov took a good lead after mobilization was
announced, but Sergej Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov and a large part of the FSB
are striking back. Prigozhin in the meantime is steadily building up his
parallel state. In Saint-Petersburg Wagner opened a brand new tech center.
Wagner Mercenary Group Opens Tech Center in St. Petersburg - The Moscow Times
And Prigozhin is
openly admitting that he interfered in the past in U.S. elections and is
planning on doing the same thing today. For the first time in 22 years of
Putin, there’s someone quietly building all the tools to challenge him. Putin
is probably aware that at one moment he will be backstabbed, but at the moment
he simply has no choice, but to follow Prigozhin. He can only hope Shoigu and
the FSB will back him up once things will get out of hand (and they will).
So, is it all doom for Russia? No, there’s
one area where lately Russia is performing surprisingly well. And this is the
deployment of home developed ZALA Lancet high precision drones. Over the past
couple of days, the famous Twitter account of a pro-Russian Serbian induvial
that operates by the name 200_zoka published numerous hits of this drone on
numerous very important Ukrainian pieces of equipment.
(1) ZOKA on Twitter: "Lancet UAVs fucking momes this morning https://t.co/cifuTeX8bz" / Twitter
(1) ZOKA on Twitter: "2 M777 hit by Lancet https://t.co/VB6s1N4zIj" / Twitter
(1) ZOKA on Twitter: "Ukranian BUK get Lancet https://t.co/EGFzlRVG43" / Twitter
(1) ZOKA on Twitter: "driver was not lucky https://t.co/uPP1sv1wQB" / Twitter
I’m not going to lie. These are some
impressive hits we are seeing here. The best targeting the Russians have done
during the entire war. I can also confirm that all the equipment types and
marks, match those of Ukrainian units. Part of the hits are high end Western
equipment like AHS Krab and M777 howitzers. The problem with the Lancet, that
it’s a small and agile device with a very maneuverable camera that’s very hard
to detect by radar. For this reason, Ukraine absolutely needs more
anti-aircraft guns like the German Gepard and Soviet ZSU-23 quadruple guns with
modernized radars. At the moment I’m writing this, it’s reported, Ukraine asked
the U.S. for the delivery of C-RAM systems. As discussed earlier: this would be
the weapon for the job. Weapons like these are needed with high prio. In
addition, I expect the first use of Iranian medium range missiles any moment
now.
Will the
Lancet be sufficient to derail a Ukrainian victory? Well, I don’t think so,
but it certainly will help to prolong Russian aggression and can do an
incredible amount of damage to the Ukrainian military machine. On the other hand, has Ukraine finally managed
to deal with the Russian artillery. There are days that Ukraine destroys more
than 30 Russian artillery and MLRS pieces per day. Losses that are absolutely
unsustainable. Russia’s defeat is inevitable, but it turns out even in a later
stage they are able to come up with new tools and methods to cause significant
problems.
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