Ukraine Blog 47 – Nukes (not) again (please)
Dear friends, family and colleagues,
Over the
past week everything was about dirty bombs, nukes and Armageddon. A lot of you
approached me in utter fear. Rest assured, there’s not going to be a bomb, not
even a dirty bomb. Actually, the nuclear vocabulary is not directed at us, it’s
not even directed to the Russian population: it’s directed towards a couple of
key competing players within the Kremlin. Let’s all sit down and relax: Let me
do the job of translating Kremlin speak to normal speak.
So today
you will find a surprisingly low amount of links in the blog. This is because what
you will read today is almost entirely based on me observing the Kremlin for
over more than 20 years. The whole fuzz about the supposed dirty bomb to be
dropped by Ukraine started last week. First of all, we need to understand two
things:
1. What’s a dirty bomb? This simply is
a conventional explosive device that has radioactive materials attached to it.
It produces a conventional explosion and contaminates a certain blast radius.
This radius can only be estimated since a dirty bomb was never used in anger. It’s
estimated that a dirty bomb detonated around three kilometers above the ground will
contaminate around 50 square kilometers. The rule is: the lower the blast altitude,
the smaller the contaminated area is, the higher the contamination is in the affected
area. But even in a relatively very high contaminated dirty bomb theater, radiation
will not be sufficient to cause radiation sickness among people. Therefore, its’s
more a really effective terror weapon, but an effective battlefield weapon?
Well, not so much.
2. It’s not in Ukraine’s interest to
drop a dirty bomb. It will simply slow down the advance of the Ukrainian armed
forces. It’s a saying that Russia often is going to do exactly what it’s accusing
its opponent is planning to do. Many analysts in the West suspect Russia will
fire a dirty bomb above Kherson, accusing Ukraine of dropping the bomb and fire
real nuclear weapons (the mushroom cloud ones) as a retaliation.
However, I
do think (and I’m one of the few to do so) that the nuclear risk (dirty bombs
and real nuclear weapons) is DECREASING. Please let me elaborate on my thinking.
I see clear indications that for the first time in the 22 year old rule of
Vladimir Putin, there are certain people in his circle that start to prepare
for the end. Make no mistake: at this moment Putin is still the undisputed
ruler, but some people in the Kremlin mob now for the first time have a sense
that they need to prepare for a period after Putin. I have a sense that this
moment started after Putin announced the (partial) mobilization in Russia. This
after all is the moment Putin broke the contract with the Russian people where the
Russian population outsourced politics to Putin in exchange for individual
freedoms. Opposition for the first time is growing and the contenders feel this
weakness. Let’s have a look at the contenders:
1. Yevgeny Prigozhin/Ramzan
Kadyrov: The party most vocal after mobilization was the Prigozhin/Kadyrov
camp. Especially Prigozhin as CEO of the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) voiced
a lot of criticism towards Putin about the military. Prigozhin is really favored
by Putin, because Wagner PMC is the only military formation on the Russian side
that until recently managed to book some very marginal military successes
against the Ukrainians around Bakhmut. This lead to rumors that Putin was about
to fire his defense minister (and longtime friend) Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff
Valery Gerasimov. However, the arrival of the Ukrainian 93rd Kholodny Yar
brigade changed the fortune of the Wagner PMC into disaster. Months of slow
progress have been undone by this crack Ukrainian brigade in just a couple of
days.
2. Sergei Shoigu/Valery Gerasimov: I believe
Shoigu is still the man of influence here, where I think Gerasimov is simply
kept in place by Shoigu. The talk about dirty bombs began almost immediately after
the first battlefield defeats of Wagner PMC. It was Shoigu who contacted
multiple Western defense ministers for calls (that’s right, he approached
them). With the U.S. secretary of defense Lloyd Austin, he even requested a
follow up call.
3. Dmitri Medvedev: Once considered the
heir apparent of Putin and the only person to have performed the role of president
of the Russian Federation besides Putin in 22 years, is Dmitri Medvedev. His
role during the Russian invasion has always been to periodically threaten the
world with the use of nuclear weapons if 1. Russian forces would be resisted 2.
The Crimean peninsula would be attacked 3. Annexed Russian territory would be attacked.
All three scenario’s happened and no nukes have been used till now.
4. Sergey Surovikin: the commander of
the Russian air force, nicknamed the Killer of Syrians or General “Armageddon.”
This guy is famously known for being the only officer who killed civilians
during the 1991 Soviet coup attempt, mercilessly killing Syrian civilians and
using a combination of cruise missiles and drones to target Ukrainian critical infrastructure/to
exhaust the Ukrainian air defenses. In my opinion Surovikin is a kind of a
special flavor. I’m not sure whether he’s a contender of his own or whether he
belongs to either one of the three previously mentioned factions.
Regardless
of their affiliations, there’s one thing all four factions have in common. They
are all showing the world, the Russian public and most important, the Kremlin
insiders, that THEY are machomen. It’s very important to understand that in
Russia, you don’t become a leader by showing compassion, by being an LGBTI
member, being a wokester, or… whatever. You simply need to be hard as a nail, a
macho MAN. There’s a reason why Putin posted pictures of him in the media
riding a horse with a naked chest: Macho!
Let’s get
to the point here: Why did Shoigu contact Western defense ministers (twice) to
warn about Ukrainian dirty bombs? The reason is very simple:
1. Shoigu needs to show he’s the
strongest of all. He needs to show the home audience, the Kremlin insiders,
that he’s the man that’s hard as a nail. The very same reason Medvedev is
constantly threatening the world with nuclear weapons. Both gentlemen want to
show that they are the right choice to succeed Putin and have the balls to
perform the job.
2. The second reason is that Shoigu
wants to pinpoint how far he can go with showing his macho behavior. In other
words: what will be the red line for the West. The main indication for this is
that HE requested both calls with Austin. Rest assured, I know how Austin
operated in Iraq and Afghanistan, I’m sure he assured the Russians their armed
forces will be annihilated before they can even blink with their eyes. Yes, the
Kremlin contender want to show their macho level, but they are actually very
afraid to do it in front of a party (like the U.S. military/NATO) that has real
capabilities.
So what’s
the good and bad news here? The bad news is that all of the four factions are
hardliners here. And way more hardline than Putin I can tell for sure. All the
liberals and doves have long been eliminated or locked up. So forget your dreams
about a friendly democratic liberal Russia. So let’s go to the good news:
Although I think Prigozhin has the best cards, he’s the only one very actively and
efficiently building his own parallel armed force, I don’t think any of the
factions is strong enough to make a serious move for power with Putin in power
and without Putin in power.
In case
Putin will still be alive and any of them will make a move, Putin will relentlessly
crack down. In case he’s gone and one of them makes a move, no one will be
strong enough to emerge victorious. My belief that Russia is heading for a
catastrophic civil war becomes stronger every day for this reason.
So, is there
no risk of nuclear escalation? Yes, there still is, especially since we have
four factions headed by utter cowboys contending for power. However, I do think
that any escalation towards the West (for the purpose of showing artificial
macho Testosterone), will likely take the form of attacking critical infrastructure
like oil/gas installations or undersea internet cables. The type of attack you
would highly suspect Russia of being the perpetrator, but where you can’t
assemble sufficient evidence. I think Shoigu’s dirty bomb commotion will quickly
move to the background. So very soon it's time for Prigozhin to make the next
move and don’t expect him to reach out with flowers and cookies.
So yes,
times will be interesting and might even be a little harder than usual with the
cold winter months ahead, but nukes: no, I’m even less convinced than before.
For the
ones where Putin still manages to scare them with the nukes. Please have a look
at this clip from Family Guy from many years ago. This is exactly what the
Russian factions are doing to you. They want you to react like that and they
enjoy it. Please don’t give them the pleasure.
Слава Україні!
Niels
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