Ukraine Blog 42 – Russia is heading for Disaster and fast!
Dear friends, family and colleagues,
It has been
silent from my side for a while, right at the time not only Ukraine, but the
whole ex-USSR exploded in flames. Most of you know this is because I visited Serbia
for the wedding of my very dear friend (Brat Moj!). But we have got a lot to catch
up. It’s going to be a long one, so buckle up! In short Russia has entered the irreversible
road of complete disaster. I’m confident enough to tell you that the end is in
sight and it will not just end with a complete Ukrainian victory, but with a
complete, very violent, disintegration of the Russian Federation. In special number
2 I stated that there’s a less than one percent chance that U.S./NATO special
forces will move in to recover Russian nuclear weapons.
Ukraine Special 02 - Defining Strategic Goals (spectraltransition.blogspot.com)
I now
increased this possibility to sixty percent! So let’s break down how we got
here. The big news that was of course on everybody’s mind, was the partial (it’s
actually a full mobilization, but we will get there) mobilization announced by
Putin and Sergei Shoigu, the minister of defense. I was always convinced that
at some point the Russians had to enter the stage of mobilization and I was
also convinced that a good mobilization would actually help the Russians to
stabilize the front. Russia right now has tried to fight a major conventional
war with a peacetime military that they deployed to create piecemeal solutions
for major challenges. However, the extremely poor execution of the mobilization
has ensured that in one week the narrative changed from “Russia escalating” to “Russia
on the path of disintegration.” On February 24th, Putin opened Pandora’s box. On September 21st
he removed the lid, so that it can’t be closed again. Let me explain why.
When Shoigu
gave the details, he said that mobilization would only apply to men with
previous military experience. Based on the footage that has come out now,
actually everyone the recruiters can get their hands on will be mobilized, making
it in fact a full mobilization. The reasons for this are as follows
1. The Soviet-Union operated in all
aspects of society on a quotum system. Grain production, steel production and also
military recruitment need to make quota. And the ones that are accountable for
when these are not met, are political officers (at the time the Communist
Party, now the Siloviki gang of Putin). This means that the political officers
will do everything to recruit in the fastest, but also most inefficient way.
2. A lot of people with proper military
experience are closer to the regime. For now they are for a large part exempted
from military service.
3. This is yet another opportunity for
the regime to get rid of ethnic minorities like North-Caucasian people,
Baskhirs, Buyratians and Tuvans. However, now it’s not professional “Kontraktniki”
soldiers who will be sent, but normal people. And the first reactions have been
full of anger.
So why is this so dangerous for Putin. To understand a little bit, we have to look at Russian society. It consists roughly of three components. I took these components from in my view brilliant political philosopher Vlad Vexler. Please watch the video as well Putin's Partial Mobilisation (it's disastrous) - YouTube
1. The radicals: they are highly politicized,
are organized, mobilized and quite often far more radical than Putin. They constitute
around 20 percent of the population. Examples are Igor Strelkov Girkin, known
for his quite realistic view on the battlefield.
2. The anti-establishment: This is a
mix of liberal, moderate left wing and moderate conservative opposition. This
is the group to which Boris Nemtsov belonged and Alexei Navalny belongs. This
group is against the Siloviki system and against the war, but completely demobilized,
because of prosecutions, arrests and assassinations. No form no real treat to
the system. They form another 20 percent of the population.
3. The passive silent majority: This is
by far the largest group of around 60 percent of the population. Putin made a
silent deal with them. The deal roughly is: “Putin, you can play superpower. It’s
ok, we will even cheer for you, but don’t ask us to join, leave alone to die for
it.”
And it’s
this last group that’s going to be the problem for Putin: He broke the
contract. Suddenly the Russians that have been cheering for years and months behind
their TV’s when Syrians and Ukrainians were killed are asked to join and pay
with their lives.
And this
fits perfectly in the mind of Putin. In blog 16 (Ukraine Blog 16 - When You Sign A Deal With The Devil... There's A Price To Pay (spectraltransition.blogspot.com)) I wrote that Putin is the devil that will always will come back to ask
for a payment after you sign a deal with him. It turned out brutal dictators
like Bashar al Assad and Alexander Lukashenko came away with saying no. Even North-Korea
issued an official statement, the likes of which I have never seen in its more
than 70 years of existence, where they denied delivering ammunition to Russia
North Korea denies supplying weapons or ammunition to Russia | North Korea | The Guardian
For once I
believe Kim Jong-Un, for the simple reason that he only has to lose from this kind
of deal. He will become part of the problem and as such risk being sucked into
the madness that will arise. By staying on the sidelines, Kim ensures that his
regime can exist many years more. Kim is perhaps crazy, but not stupid.
So the only
party that signed up with Putin where the devil can still collect the dues, are
the passive silents. This is the group that now needs to make a choice:
1. Agree with the cause, go to Ukraine
and face a certain death. If you’re lucky, you will be captured by the
Ukrainian army
2. Rise up and fight the monster
To all the “poor
Russian men” that are trying to get out to Georgia, Kazakhstan and Mongolia. I
don’t have sympathy for them. They had months to get away or do something. They
only decided to run when their time came. If they were like real men, they
would fight like the Iranian women are currently doing on the streets of 130
cities in Iran.
The last
capable Russian army units are currently cut off and fighting for survival in
Kherson. So how does the mobilization goes after just six days? In one word: disastrous
1. Discipline is a mess. Recruits that often never had any military
experience, arrive on the training ground, completely drunk and have no respect
for officers
2. I already suspected in the past
couple of weeks that Russia is finally getting low on equipment stocks. On the
trains of vehicles, we only see old World War II era trucks. There’re still a
few tanks and artillery pieces on them. However, there are usually only a
couple of them per train and the models are ancient. The new mobilized troops (or
Mobiks) are issued old AKM and AK-47 rifles that haven’t been cleaned for decades.
There are no medical supplies, so the men have to ask their wives and
girlfriends for tampons.
c. (1) IgorGirkin on Twitter: "Хайтек для мобилизованнных? https://t.co/RawLUskZ5a" / Twitter
3. Shoigu initially said that there
would be two weeks of military training for each mobilized unit (which is still
ridiculously low for even recruits that have some past military experience).
However, it’s now confirmed that most units are already being send to the
battlefield after just one day of training or no training at all.
History
tells us that sending recruits in this condition to the battlefield doesn’t make
them an asset, it makes them a LIABILITY! My favorite clip on what happens when
you put untrained recruits in the firing line, comes from the movie “Der Untergang”
and shows how the Volksstürm actually made the defense of Berlin in 1945 even
harder for the remaining trained soldiers.
Volkssturm Scene - Downfall - YouTube
We already
start to see similar behavior on the battlefields in Ukraine.
Make no
mistake: I’m one hundred percent confident that the Mobiks will generate zero
added value on the Ukrainian battle fields. The difference with the Volkstürm
and the Mobiks is that at least the Volkstürm was motivated. I haven’t seen any
motivation in the Mobik videos. They will have to face the Ukrainian army that
despite being in a war managed to upgrade, train and motivate itself to
probably the best army in the history of mankind. Ukraine has shown, it’s able
to rotate forces in such an efficient way that has rarely been shown in military
history. It’s now an oiled machine, battle hardened and battle tested. Tens of
thousands of Mobiks will be killed in Ukraine and the ones that make it back
will tell the stories that there’s nothing but hell for them waiting in Ukraine.
The first real signs of insurrection have already begun in Dagestan and Kabardino-Balkaria.
I suspect full blown revolts to start pretty soon in these republics.
These
regions have always been problematic for the central government in Moscow and
many are waiting to settle the score. Pretty soon Putin will have to decide
whether he needs to send forces to republics and oblasts in open revolt or to defend
territory in Ukraine.
It seems
like all is coming together now. For the past month it became clear how weak Russia
is on the international stage.
1. Azerbaijan attacked and occupied
territory that’s internationally recognized as Armenia. Armenia is supposed to
be under the protection of the CSTO, the Russian-led equivalent of NATO. All indications
are there that this was a probe attack to see how Russia will react in case of
a real invasion. Besides one written weak statement there was none. Azerbaijan
is now moving everything into place to start a full scale invasion of Armenia.
2. Again, also in the CSTO a large border
conflict erupted between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The latter even advanced
and occupied territory of the other. Again, Russia did and said nothing.
3. Kazakhstan indicated it will close
the border for Russians and will cease important economic cooperations with
Russia.
4. At the summit of the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization, almost all leaders let Putin wait for multiple minutes.
Interestingly enough, it’s Putin that invented this type of behavior.
Russia is
now externally a nobody. Now the inward collapse has started. First of all it
happens way faster than I anticipated. In addition, I expected a more peaceful disintegration
of Russia. Of course it remains to be seen how it goes, but I predict a very violent
long lasting civil war in Russia, the likes of which we haven’t seen since the civil
wars of the Balkans, Afghanistan and Somalia of the nineties. However, I expect
this war to be very brutal, since it will happen after the removal of the only
institution with perceived legitimacy in Russia, Vladimir Putin. It will be a
war (or many civil wars) with no morality involved. And I mean any form of
morality. To explain it more clearly: National Socialism was horrible, but it
was a form of morality. This war won’t be about that. It will be about basic
resources to survive.
So what to
do after we enter this stage:
1. Complete the transformation of the
Ukrainian (and I think the army of a free Belarus as well) to the most modern NATO
force. Though the threat of invasion will be gone for the most part, the eastern
NATO border (yes, they will become NATO members) will be one of the most
unstable borders in the world that need to be protected at all costs.
2. In line with Special 2: remove all
nuclear weapons from the territory that’s now the Russian Federation. I’m
pretty confident that in the event we enter full chaos (my prediction, around
December 2022), the Western (and quite possibly Chinese) forces will be able to
evacuate all strategic Russian nuclear weapons. I’m afraid we will not be able
to get out all tactical nuclear weapons. They are smaller warheads on more
compact delivery vehicles.
Will all of
Russia be cursed? No, I think over the next three years, many new states will
emerge on the territory of what’s now the Russian Federation. Some of them have
a bright future. They have historical links with neighboring countries, like Karelia
with Finland and quite often possess rich natural resources. Some of the territories
will develop into quite rich and peaceful nations. Others will engage in brutal
civil wars for many years (my bet will be on the northern Caucasus).
But first
we have to maneuver Putin to the end game. Ukraine is again advancing fast and
on the verge of defeating major Russian formations (more on that in the next
blog). Putin is upping the game with sabotaging the North Stream pipelines, forced
referenda and nuclear saber-rattling. Plenty of drama, but we’re in the end
game now. And thanks to Putin’s stupidity it’s getting faster than I thought. Well,
for once, thank you for that, Vlad!
Слава
Україні!
Niels
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