Taiwan Blog 01 - The Tables Have Turned
Dear friends, family and colleagues,
Yes! You
read it well. I moved my geographical attention to THAT other part of the
world. And I moved it because of a reason: It’s linked to the war that our blue
yellow European brothers are fighting in Ukraine. However, it’s not related in
the way you think it is.
First of
all: I’m very aware of the quote I made in Ukraine Blog 02: “The most
important one will be Taiwan: even when Russian miraculously regains the
initiative and conquers Ukraine in one week from now, a Chinese invasion of
Taiwan will be off the table! “
The problem
is: the tables have turned and they have turned dramatically. Let’s have a look
at why the tables have been turned.
1. China (the People's Republic of or
“PRC”) has been touted as the new 21st century superpower. Those of
you who have known me over the years know that I NEVER EVER bought into this
narrative. I was never convinced that China has the potential nor the
capabilities to operate in a superpower role. I always viewed the PRC as a
giant Ponzi-Scheme that accumulated into the biggest house of cards ever known
by mankind. Their road construction, the economic development in conjunction
with a destruction of nature and corruption, the likes of which the planet has
never seen before never convinced me to believe that the PRC would be the
dominant power of the 21st century. And as I predicted many years
ago, the pillars of power of the PRC are crumbling now, they are not crumbling
one at a time, but the whole house of cards seems to come down at once.
a. The Chinese real estate market: In
over a period that stared just 10 months ago, the Chinese real estate bubble
started a complete meltdown. And when I’m talking real estate: I need to
explain something: Real estate in the PRC is nothing like buying a home in the
West. Real estate in the PRC is an investment or currency. You buy and staple
it as leverage against other investments. The way you staple your investments
is also based on traditional Chinese traditional beliefs.
Even before Mao-Zedong
times, it was a custom in the PRC to completely strip a newly acquired home of
all furniture and decorations, because you need to clean the house of negative
spirits from previous owners. That’s why up until this day, an apartment in the
PRC is valued more as a concrete shell as opposed to a completely furnished
apartment. Citizens of the PRC as such never new a down spiral, they only know
the times, when their investments increased in value. Now that major real
estate companies like Evergrande are collapsing, their return on investment is
no longer guaranteed. And all of a sudden you see people who manage mortgages,
including some senior Chinese Communist Party (CCP) members, are refusing to
pay off their mortgages. In addition people from the provinces are moving
toward the major banks in provinces to voice their discontent and tanks are on
the streets.
China Brings Out Tanks To Quell Protests? - YouTube
b. Covid: Covid-19 is known to originate from PRC as well as receiving the most effective response with only 80.000 infected till the end of 2021. But is it really the case? Of course not, this is the only point that is really tangible to the Western audience. The PRC did cover up the initial Covid numbers. And only when the rest of the world managed to deal with Covid-19, it became clear that the PRC’s approach to Covid-19 didn’t work. The Sinofarm vaccine turned out to be more ineffective than natural immunity in Europe, Africa and the America’s. In other word’s China’s zero Covid policy turned out to be a disaster and the PRC doesn’t have an answer to it. The only thing they can do now is to desperately try to hold on to lock downs, where the rest of the world has moved on. The purpose of these lockdowns is not to save people’s lives, but to make sure that the CCP doesn’t lose face (not losing your face is a very important aspect of Asian culture in general).
2. The second factor is actually the
consequence of the success of Ukrainian resistance. Where the West originally
intended to send just sufficient Javelin and NLAW missiles to Ukraine to
sustain an insurgency against the Russians, Western powers are now sending
their most modern long range artillery systems to Ukraine to fight against the
Russians. As I stated before, Western nations are now convinced that with their
weaponry they can defeat the Russians on the battlefield. But this also
represents an opportunity for the PRC. Great powers have proven themselves to
be very bad players in performing two front wars. In other words: in case the
United States wants to come to the defense of Taiwan (the official name of Taiwan
is the Republic of China or ROC, but I refer to it as Taiwan. I will later
explain why), it needs to make a choice. With limited conventional weapons it
needs to supply either Ukraine or Taiwan: it cannot sustain both. Truth is: the
PRC is not wrong in this assumption.
And this is
where rationality sets in. I said many times before: Putin IS and REMAINS a
rational actor. Based on the Russian interests and the information that has
been made available to Putin, I would have made exactly the same decision:
namely, to invade Ukraine. Xi Jinping is very much similar to this mindset.
Putin and Xi are not the same type of idiots like Khadafi and Kim Jong Un: they
are rational actors that base their decisions based on rational information
input. And based on the events, described above, that happened over the past six months, I
would make the decision to invade Taiwan based on the information that’s
available and rational to me and that I described in the points above. I don’t
believe Putin and Xi are aligning on this or this is part of a great masterplan.
Under the current circumstances, invasion is the only rational thing to do here
for Xi.
But then,
rational or not: how would a Chinese invasion of Taiwan go versus the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. Well, that’s a hard cookie to crack. I have a strong
believe that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) made the decision to invade
Taiwan a couple of years ago. However, I do believe that the CCP put the
timeframe to invade somewhere in the 2030’s. However, right now, due to the
circumstances described above, a unique opportunity arises from where roughly
four scenarios can be abstracted
1. I observed the Chinese supply of equipment coming up to the coast. This immediately resulted in eerily familiar scenes that I observed early and late last year where the Russian social media accounts produced massive amounts of TikTok videos of Russian armored trains supplies moving towards the West.
I believe the PRC
closely observed what the Russians have been doing in April 2021. Bringing
supplies to the West under the pretext of military exercises, withdrawing the
troops and leaving the equipment behind for a follow up stage. One of the
reasons I don’t think this will be a full blown invasion of Taiwan (scenario
4), is the second video. In case you really want to perform an invasion you
want to have clear OPSEC procedures in place. In case of the video, the
People’s Liberation Army (PLA) clearly wanted the public to see their
deployment. I think it’s highly likely that when exercises end, the troops will
go back to the barracks, but the equipment will remain on the coast.
2. Not that many people know this, but
Taiwan still owns a couple of islands very close the Chinese mainland coast and
I mean not more than 20 kilometers. These are most notably the Quemoy and Matsu
Islands, amongst a few other smaller ones. They are still to be considered part
of the Taiwanese Fujian province (the PRC has a Fujian counterpart) and
illustrate Taiwan’s resolve that they have never given up on protecting Taiwan
from the CCP’s rule. A Chinese invasion of these islands is feasible from a
military perspective. Just 20 percent of the Taiwanese military is stationed
there and all the islands are within range of PLA short range artillery
rockets. The PRC can just easily occupy these islands by continuously putting
them under 24/7 artillery bombardment for a couple of weeks. For Taiwan they
are not of vital strategic importance and they might want to abandon these
islands. This would constitute very easy quick wins for the PRC. Main indicator
is the type of equipment the PLA brought to Fujian province: lots and lots of
short range MLRS systems. For a full blown invasion of Taiwan the emphasize
should lay on tanks not on these systems.
3. The PRC launched unprecedented
military exercises in the seas around Taiwan. It’s clear that the PRC sees the
reception of the U.S. speaker of house as a very insulting move by the United
States. It sees Taiwan as integral part of the PRC and continuously talks about
“reunification.” This this despite the fact that Taiwan never FOR ONE
MILISECOND was part of the PRC. Let’s remind ourselves of the fact that the CCP
never set one single foot on Taiwanese soil. A logical scenario of the PRC
conducting exercises 360 degrees around Taiwan is to force Taiwan into a
blockade, with the purpose of maneuvering Taiwan to the negotiating table.
4. A full blown PLA invasion of Taiwan:
Like I said: I believe the CCP has already made the decision to invade Taiwan,
but the timelines for execution should be far in the future. The People’s
Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is by far not on amphibious landing strength. As a
matter of fact: in case you would put the U.S. Navy on the Chinese mainland:
Even they would not be able to conduct an amphibious invasion of Taiwan. I
think it’s likely that the CCP pulled the timelines for an invasion further to
the near future. And the West sending their most modern weapons to Ukraine is
the main motivator for this. This presents the PRC with a window of opportunity
of let say two years where the West will be low on weapons it can supply to Taiwan.
For the first time in the history of the PRC, it can actually afford to gamble.
I’m
convinced the current uproar will make at least scenarios 1, 2 and 3 a reality.
Scenario 4 is really unlikely right now, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has
shown, nothing can be ruled out. Let’s have a look at scenario 4. How will the
PRC currently perform in a full blown invasion?
1. Training: last time the PRC went to war was in 1979 to punish Vietnam for deposing the Pol Pot regime in Cambodia (bless Vietnam for that). And it went disastrous. In not even one full month, the Chinese lost 60.000 soldiers in senseless human wave attacks and managed to penetrate Vietnamese territory only for 100 kilometers. Even the Russians “only” lost 40.000 soldiers in five months of war. Like the Russians, the Chinese upgraded their army with a lot of fancy looking tools, but they completely failed to upgrade their training accordingly. The PLA trains in an even more scripted way than the Russians and their air force pilots perform the same reckless interceptions as the Russians do over the Barents sea and Baltic seas. As we know now: this is not an illustration of good training of bravery, but the lack of it!
Ukrainian pilots have scored large successes
against the Russian air force, completely driving it of the territory Ukraine
controls, with 40 year old aircraft and very effective U.S. air force training.
Taiwan always trained according to American standards and they have a very
effective high tech air force. Chances of the PLA achieving air superiority are
very slim.
2. Equipment: it’s possible to measure the reliability of equipment by looking at other conflicts. It’s the impression of the OSINT community and myself included that Russian weapons and equipment are lightyears ahead in reliability and effectiveness compared to Chinese ones. And looking at Ukraine, we just know how reliable and effective they are. And there’s a phenomenon present in both Russia and the PRC that’s far worse in the PRC and that doesn’t help it: corruption. It’s literally present in every aspect of the PRC and it’s especially rampant in the military. It’s known that Chinese officers are cutting corners in every possible way. The best way to describe the state of PLA equipment. A lot of you ordered some stuff via Chinese web services like Ali Express. You have an Macbook that looks exactly the same as the original, but breaks down after a couple of months. The same is true for PLA equipment and I believe it’s even worse there.
3. Manpower: this is a topic where the PRC doesn’t have a problem. Even though the PRC’s population is rapidly ageing and will decrease from 1.4 billion now to 540 million in 2100, even then the supply of manpower will be practically unlimited. In addition, although I do believe that the Chinese population is genuinely more enthusiastic about enrolling into the army with the purpose of entering war than the Russians, the instruments available to the PLA to forcefully recruit more manpower are wider than in Russia. In case it’s needed, the CCP will issue the order to forcefully recruit as many as possible people needed for the job.
4. Logistics: as you know, this is the
main failure of the Russian army in Ukraine. And precisely this part is where
the PLA heavily invested in. In the past 30 years, The PRC invested an enormous
amount in the logistics of its army and this yielded considerable results. The
PLA largely follows the Western model of logistics: long flatbed trucks,
forklift trucks and ammunition of pallets. Last week there was a PLA army train
in Russia to participate in the tank biathlon (yeah they have that) and you can
actually see the PLA forklift trucks on the train. Quite ironic, because the Russian
army never heard of these things.
During international exercises the PLA is able
to get its forces in and out way faster than the Russians and in general, the
PLA seems to have a good resupply chain in place.
So bad
training and equipment, but good logistics and a full pool of manpower. So will
the PRC be successful in a full blown invasion? My answer: in 20 years maybe,
right now: no. Where Russian logistics need to be in reasonable shape in
Ukraine, PLA logistics need to be in impeccable state. In case the PLA wants to
take Taiwan, we are talking about the largest amphibious assault in history
against the most difficult terrain possible. Thanks to rough seas and typhoons,
there are only four months per year an invasion can be carried out (interestingly,
two of those months are August and September). Though the Taiwanese army suffers
from the lack of sufficient modern equipment (quite a lot of World War II
equipment is still used), the first two force components the PLA have to fight
against are the Taiwanese high tech air force and navy. And the PLA has a one
time shot only here. In case an invasion fails, they can’t do it again for at
least 20 years.
In case
Taiwan succeeds in destroying 30 percent of the invasion fleet before it
reaches the landing beaches (I believe they will), there won’t be sufficient PLA
forces available to secure a bridgehead and in case they do succeed, there won’t
be sufficient logistics in place to supply a sufficient amount of reinforcements.
The main force component of the PLA will have to be loaded on roll on-roll off
ferries and only in front of the Taiwanese coast, the will board the landing
craft. I expect the Taiwanese air force and navy to make these ferries the main
targets for any preventive strikes.
Even if a PLA
invasion force will secure a bridgehead, it will only be the start of trouble
for them. All landing beaches are surrounded by incredibly high mountains ideal
for the defender. When it comes to terrain, Ukraine should have been a walk in
the park, compared to this island. And I expect the Taiwanese to fight just as
hard as the Ukrainians.
In case the
PLA doesn’t secure a bridgehead, U.S. military intervention is not needed. In
case the U.S. does intervene: it won’t go nuclear. Just as the delivery of
heavy weapons to Ukraine shows: a fight between two nuclear powers is possible
and nobody will even think about using them. The PRC knows that and it’s
willing to make a bet.
So yeah, Taiwan
and Taiwanese, why not ROC or Taiwanese Chinese? It’s true that the 1949, the
Kuomintang regime escaped from the Chinese mainland to establish the ROC on the
island of Taiwan. Like the PRC, the original philosophy of the ROC, was (and
is) still one China. That’s why up until now, Taiwan has not been an official
independent country. But over the years, the ROC started to change and evolved
slowly into Taiwan and for the following reasons:
1. The Kuomintang was a fascist dictatorship
under the leadership of a military man called Chiang Kai-shek. Since his death
in 1975, Taiwan has come a long way. It created a multi-party system with free elections
that ranks among the highest freedom index in the world. The Kuomintang is an
opposition party now and the dominant political party is in favor of independence.
In 2016, the people elected for the first time a woman as their president, Tsai
Ing-wen, a single lady with no kids and a giant love for cats.
2. Taiwan went in entirely different direction
than the PRC. While the CCP often declares itself the protector of Chinese culture
and identity. It’s that very CCP that completely erased traditional Chinese
culture. It’s a giant machine that erases everything that’s not conforming to
it and every place were it goes, it leaves destruction and destroys the natural
environment. Taiwan has cemented itself as the last place where traditional
Chinese culture thrives in addition to heavily promoting sustainability, a
clean environment, social security and LGBTI rights. And as such a new culture
and identity is emerging, completely separate from Chinese on the mainland. The
CCP has corrupted the minds of the average Chinese, who can’t speak out and as
such rarely take initiative and responsibility. Those who do flee or are “re-educated.”
And that’s why there’s a now a Taiwan, where no such thing was there 70 years
ago.
And in that
sense the casus belli for Xi is the same as Vladimir Putin’s one for Ukraine. Taiwan
is everything the PRC wants to be, just as Ukraine is everything Russia wants
to be. And where I never denied that Russians and Ukrainians are culturally and
historically wise perhaps 90 percent the same people, Taiwanese and Chinese are
100 percent the same in that sense. But in both cases, the argument that people
should be ruled by corrupt, brutal and fascist dictators, simply because they
are part of the majority ethnic group that that dictator rules over, is madness.
The fact that both Ukraine and Taiwan are under attack and under threat by two
large dictatorial regimes shows that both of them are doing something right.
They are not blinded by history, stand up for their right and identity and are
willing to fight for it. I did never hide that I’m a huge supporter of Taiwanese
independence and anyone who’s on the side of Ukraine right now, should also be
on the side of Taiwan.
For those of you who really want to know how the PRC works down to the deepest layer of society, please follow the channel of ADVChina. I read a lot of books about the PRC and CCP, but this channel was an eye-opener: ADVChina - YouTube
出頭天 (Chhut-thâu-thi)*
Niels
*(this means:
“‘lift up [your] heads towards the sky’ or ‘[we shall] emerge with only the sky
above [our] heads’, which means something like ‘we shall have our day’”).
This is the main slogan of the Taiwanese independence movement
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