Ukraine Blog 37 - The Battle for the Black Sea and Birds in the Sky
Dear friends, family and colleagues,
At the time
of the last blog over a week ago, Russia made the last advances of their
disastrous adventure in Ukraine. The Russian advance is now completely stalled
and what’s going on right now is nothing less than a relentless Operation
Desert Storm like strategic campaign of strikes to prepare the battlefield for
what’s next. But there’re bigger things at play here. Let’s take a look at all
the different components.
First of
all, Russia’s advance has completely stalled. Russia has taken all of Luhansk
oblast, except literally one place, called Bilohorivka. This is the same
Bilhorivaka (there are many more) known for the disastrous Russian river
crossings. The Russians are still trying to advance, but in small groups and
during each of their attempts they suffer horrific casualties. Ukrainian
counter artillery and the Ukrainian fortifications are simply too strong. The
Ukrainian HIMARS strikes resulted in the number Russian shells fired dropping
from 45.000 to 60.000 to 15.000 to 20.000. Still an enormous amount, but
Russian artillery fire completely lost its effectiveness. Where the Ukrainians
can now hit targets with a single Excalibur or BONUS round, the Russian still
need hundreds of artillery rounds to hit a single target.
It's clear
that the Russians absolutely have no answer to the HIMARS. And more HIMARS and
M270’s continue to arrive. Yesterday the first footage of a full M270 volley
appeared. You definitely don’t want to be at the receiving end of this
IgorGirkin on Twitter: "Этот звук https://t.co/HzdHfrKld1" / Twitter
Russian air
defense systems desperately try to shoot the HIMARS rockets down, but they fail
and they shoot down their own aircraft in the process. Two just in the past two
days.
Ukraine in
the meantime is drastically expanding the list of strategic targets. Railway
junctions, electronic warfare sites, vehicle motor pools, fuel depots and now
bridges are all in the HIMARS target list and hit with devastating accuracy. If
this goes on for another three weeks, the Russians even won’t have the means to
transport their exhausted troops from the frontline back home. It’s clear now
that again the Russians fail miserably in their logistics. The only risk is:
Ukraine needs to use their HIMARS rockets wisely. Their stock is very limited
and production of the advanced new rockets takes time. The Ukrainians don’t
need more launchers, they need to carefully watch their rockets. And at one
point Ukraine must go on the offensive or all will be for nothing.
Ukraine even
uses the HIMARS to strike targets that are very hard to hit or need to be hit
precisely because of potentially severe collateral damage consequences. Ukraine
struck the bridge near Kherson with ten HIMARS rockets that all hit within a 15
meter radius. In addition the Russians used their old tactic of moving military
equipment and soldiers close to civilians or sensitive installations, in this
case a nuclear powerplant. HIMARS had no problem with this.
But there’s
more at play here. I think the Pentagon has decided that the main objective of
the campaign has shifted from just liberating territory to ensure that the
global supply chain for food will be restored. The first sign is the Russian
defeat (not a gesture of Goodwill, folks) at Snake Island. Many experts and
OSINT individuals dismissed the strategic importance of Snake Island, but now
that the Russians have been driven out, Ukraine for the first time since the
start of the war is able to export limited amounts of grain again via sea.
Now that
the Russian fire positions on Snake Island are out of business Ukrainian ships
can enter Ukraine via the Danube through Sulina in Romania. Capacity is by far
not as large as Odessa or Mariupol, but it’s important that this process is
again started up. And things are not looking good for Russia in the Black Sea
either. The Americans announced that they are going to supply the Ukrainians
with the 300 kilometer range ATACMS missile which uses HIMARS and M270 as a
launch vehicle. This puts the Black Sea Fleet homeport of Sevastopol right in
the firing range. Russia knows what’s coming and already moved a significant
part of the Black Sea Fleet out of Crimea to Novorossiysk.
I always
believed that a sustainable Ukrainian victory can only be achieved with
expulsion of Russia from Crimea, Transnistria and a coup in Belarus. Based on
the target HIMARS are hitting right now, Ukrainian troops movements and the
rhetoric coming out of the Pentagon, it’s clear that the first objective right
now for Ukraine is to open the Black Sea again.
And there’s
more Ukrainian firepower ahead. The Americans announced that they are going to
train Ukrainian pilots on F-15’s and F-16’s. We all know how this will end. The
HIMARS program also started with Ukrainian soldiers receiving training on those
platforms long before the official announcement that they would be delivered to
Ukraine. And F-16’s is exactly what Ukraine needs. These aircraft will enable
Ukraine to hit the Russians with very effective high precision bombing. Moreover,
the Ukrainians will be able to perform SEAD and DEAD strikes where they can
effectively take out Russian air defenses. The Americans and NATO allies have
hundreds relatively modern F-16C/D’s in storage. Especially since many
countries start to replace their fighter fleets with Rafale’s Gripen’s and F-35’s.
However, delivery of F-16’s leads to multiple challenges:
1. I think Ukrainian pilots will be
able to fly an F-16 within weeks. The problem is that F-16’s need extensive
ground support. As opposed to Russian fighters that can operate from grass
strips when they have to, F-16’s need a clear flat runway or well maintained
road to take off. Ground technicians need to be trained on the advanced software
of the advanced on board computers and weapons guidance systems. This training
is on the same level of what senior software developers need to conduct.
2. To perform bigger maintenance, F-16’s
need a fully equipped maintenance facility outside the conflicts zone. So in case
F-16’s will be operated by the Ukrainians, they likely will operate from
Ukrainian airbases, but maintenance will have to take place on airfields in
Poland and Slovakia.
3. Just 24 F-16’s will give Ukraine dominance
in the domestic airspace. However, F-16’s alone are not enough. Ukraine will
also need early warning aircraft. Not an E-3 AWACS, but the Brazilian Embraer
R-99 and Swedish Saab 340 AEW&C are perfect candidates for this. These
aircraft in combination with AMRAAM equipped F-16’s will make Ukraine practically
undefeatable in the skies.
I think we
will see Ukraine operating the F-16’s in around six months.
Russia
absolutely has no answer to all of this. In a bizarre and desperate move,
Russia is now turning to what is normally considered a client state for help.
Putin arrived in Iran yesterday to beg the mullah’s for armed drones that
supposedly can track and strike the HIMARS systems. This shows that Russia is
neither a superpower nor medium power. I don’t expect much of it. Iran used
their drones in large numbers against the United States in Iraq and against
Israel in Syria and Lebanon. Both countries dealt decisively with the Iranians
drones that are often nothing more than fancied up versions of commercial
drones. With Ukraine having NASAMS batteries and a lot of Stingers and S-300
SAMS’s I expect any Iranian drone to suffer the same fate.
But the
Iranian factor is something to watch. I stated multiple times before that this
is World War III. It’s just that many people don’t recognize it as such. And
something major is brewing here. Just as I despised the appeasement policies of
the Bush and Obama administrations towards Russia, I equally despise the
appeasement of the Obama and Biden administration towards Iran. I’m not afraid
to admit it: I loved Donald Trumps approach towards Iran. It was effective and
shivered the mullah’s with fear. Just like Putin, the mullahs understand only
one language: STRENGTH.
One of the
main reasons the oil prices in the West are currently so high, is that
Saudi-Arabia didn’t increase oil production. Not because they like Putin so
much, but they absolutely hate (like Israel) the approach of the Biden
administration towards Iran. But finally it appears that the Biden
administration starts to come to its senses with regards to Iran. The
negotiations about a nuclear deal between Iran and the West, the JCPOA, seem to
have reached a dead end. Biden recently visited Saudi-Arabia begged the Saudi’s
to increase production. The Saudi’s agreed to a temporary increase of 10
million barrels to 13 million barrels daily, but it’s clear that they want more
from the Americans. I think in the end some kind of more sustainable deal will
be reached.
In the
meantime Israel is preparing on multiple fronts for something big against Iran.
Israel launches low-altitude air transport exercise over Romania | The Times of Israel
It’s clear
that Israel sees no other option than to strike Iran with a leader that’s
called the butcher of Tehran and now openly admits on attempting to produce
nuclear weapons. This is going to heat up soon, especially now that the fates
of the butcher of Tehran and the butcher of Bucha are so closely related.
Слава
Україні!
Niels
Comments
Post a Comment