Ukraine Special 04 - Let’s talk ammo stockpiles
Dear friends, family and colleagues,
I know it
has been a while since my last update. I needed to let some steam off. I
enjoyed weekends with you my precious friends, family and colleagues and I
enjoyed myself in Bucharest. In the meantime, the war in Ukraine went on and it
evolved in a brutal vicious war of attrition that the world has never seen before.
The brutality of the war is insane and it evolved into a battle of long range
artillery with unprecedented long range volleys of very heavy artillery. It’s
really a question now of which side has the longest breath. Russia has an abundance
of artillery. Ukraine still has no shortage of manpower and the Western high
precision ammunition comes into play.
The time
has come to present you with unique insight into the stockpiles of ammunition
of both Russia and Ukraine. I scouted the twitter channels and I’m confident to
present you with a unique insight in how the cards are shuffled right now when
it comes to ammunition stockpiles and a such, who has potentially the longest
breath.
First it’s
important to understand that both the Ukrainian and Russian military were until
30 years ago part of exactly the same army, the feared Soviet Red Army. This
army prepared for over 40 years to combat the combined NATO armies on the plains
of Germany. The Red Army prepared over 25 million tons of ammunition for this
scenario, which was at the time more than the ammunition stockpile of all other
armies combined. Just as it’s a mistake to think that Putin immediately would
grab for the nukes, the Soviet army doctrine was primarily focused on fighting
the NATO via conventional warfare. Focal point of this doctrine was to destroy Western
European cities in hug volleys of artillery and MLRS fire. The Red Army cared
even less about liberating. As long as socialism would be there, victory was
assured. After the fall of communism, this huge Soviet army needed to be withdrawn
from East Germany (GDR), Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and the Baltic States,
back to the territory of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). An enormous
part of these Red Army formations ended up in Ukraine and Belarus. As a result
both countries inherited huge stockpiles of ammunition and arms.
Ukraine inherited
a total of 2,5 million tons of Soviet ammunition. The vast majority of which
degraded over time. This why Ukraine asked for NATO assistance to dispose of
these large quantities of increasingly unstable ammunition. For years NATO was
involved in many Eastern Europe nations, trying to dispose of these ammunition
stockpiles. Even after those effort, large quantities of arms and ammunition
ended up in Third World countries. If you want to know more about this, please
watch the most realistic Hollywood movie I have seen so far, “Lord of War” with
Nicolas Cage. For a comprehensive overview of all NATO Trust Fund ammunition
destruction projects, please see the overview below.
The problem
with expired ammunition is that you really can’t use it safely anymore. Ukraine
is very aware of this. They suffered from many explosions in ammunition
stockpiles (some are suspected to ignited by Russian GRU units). This week
Ukraine revealed that its Soviet artillery ammunition stockpile is almost expired.
This is sooner than I expected. To put things into perspective. Ukraine
revealed this week that it fires between 3000 and 5000 shells per day. When we
take the heaviest commonly used Soviet shell, the 152 mm caliber, those are 50
kilo’s each. This means that since the start of the war, Ukraine used (50 kg x 5000
rounds x 107 days) = 26750 tons of artillery ammunition. This is only a
fraction of the 2,5 million tons of ammunition (by far not all artillery
ammunition of course). Ukraine is very aware of the dangers of firing expired
ammunition since it can destroy much needed artillery guns and kill personnel.
According to the Ukrainian general staff, more than 50 percent of the rounds
fired per day are Western 155 mm rounds. The M777 towed howitzers are very
useful, but the most destructive Western artillery in the battlefield right now
is the French CEACAR mobile shoot and scoot howitzer. Just 12 of these systems
destroyed over 80 Russian artillery pieces in little over three weeks. Pretty
good score right? Yes, a damn good score. Sad truth is: it’s not enough
Where the
Ukrainians take great care of the ammunition they use, the Russians absolutely don’t
care. Ukraine’s 2,5 million tons of ammunition stockpile is absolutely dwarfed
by Russia’s insane 12 million tons of ammunition in store. This means that
Russia has the capability to sustain an almost constant artillery bombardment
for over a year. Ukraine has destroyed more than 900 Russian artillery and MLRS
pieces. Problem is that Russia has around 10.000 more and they absolutely don’t
care about the safety of their personnel.
Many Russian
artillery guns are now exploding because of firing expired ammunition.
The truth
is that Russia can afford this type of recklessness. They have plenty of guns
and an insane amount of ammunition. With their stockpile, Russia is capable of
sustaining the war for at least another year.
That’s why
it’s of vital importance that the HIMARS and M270 MLRS systems are delivered as
soon as possible by the British and the Americans. Just 20 of these batteries
can cause absolute mayhem among the Russian artillery batteries. Their range is
far bigger than any of the Russian artillery (and as such they can operate at
safe distance) and their ammunition very accurate. Already with the CEACAR’s it
can be seen that the Ukrainians only need to fire twice to destroy a target.
One round for target adjustment, one for target destruction. I agree with the
Biden administration that there’s currently no need for the ATACMS long range
heavy rocket, but it’s of vital importance that Ukraine gets the GMLRS and MARS
II rockets for the HIMARS and M270. Those are absolute artillery killers and
will make Ukraine win the war easily. Without those, Ukraine will still win,
but the cost in human life on the Ukrainian side will be far and far bigger.
And it’s of
vital importance that Ukraine destroys as much as Russian artillery as
possible. Last week I gave a presentation for my department where the main message
was that Putin is moving forward with the war, because he’s fed by false information.
My believe that this is still the case has only become stronger. I think Putin
is absolutely convinced he’s winning and that after Ukraine he can move on the West.
This week he lifted the mask of a reasonable statesman and really compared himself
to Tsar Peter the Great, claiming that he should take Sweden because it’s rightfully
part of the Russian world.
He might
need to hurry though, although the Russians still have an abundance in
artillery, the stocks in Siberia are emptied of Uragan MLRS systems and Giatsint
152 mm guns.
But I think
Vlad forgets something: Yes, his troops are making progress, but the town next
door, Kharkiv, still hasn’t been taken
and I doubt it will ever fall.
Доброго вечора, ми з України!
Niels
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