Ukraine Blog 33 - Will Russian Stupidity Really Save Us?
Dear friends, family and colleagues,
The brutal
war of attrition in the east of Ukraine is grinding on. This is truly brutal
warfare the world hasn’t seen since World War II. Many bloggers are now openly
discussing the possibility of Russia winning this war. Although I do agree that
Ukraine is suffering a lot of battlefield losses, I think chances of Russia
winning this war actually become stronger by the day. But whereas in the first weeks
of the war, it was Ukrainian tactics and fighting spirit that helped the
Ukrainians, I think right now, the Ukrainians are helped significantly more by
Russian incompetence and stupidity. Let me explain why.
Two times
in my blogs I wrote about crucial Russian victories where in case Russia would
win the battle, their chances of winning would increase significantly.
Izium
Ukraine Blog 18 - The Battle for Helm's Deep (spectraltransition.blogspot.com)
And Popasna
Ukraine Blog 30 - Popasna Popped and the Melitopol Mess (spectraltransition.blogspot.com)
In both
cases, Russia won the battle. What puzzles me with both places is that in both
cases Russia fails to capitalize on these victories. In both cases, as soon as
soon as the Russians got the town, their advance stopped and a vicious war of
attrition began. In both instances, any military would be in such a position to
initiate a strong and deep advance into enemy territory, but the Russians fail miserably
at it. Especially at Popasna, they had the golden opportunity to close the
siege of Sieverodonetsk and choke any Ukrainian forces in a slow death without
significant losses. Instead the Russians chose to directly storm Sieverodonetsk
and committing their forces to a costly battle of attrition with high casualties
on both sides. For the Ukrainians there’s not much to lose. In as siege they
would have been the only ones with high casualties, but right now they have a
golden opportunity to drain the Russians. They are doing this while the supply
lines to Sieverodonetsk are still wide open. Though all bridges to the city
have been destroyed, it’s still accessible because the water in the river is low.
Please don’t
think that the Ukrainians have any illusions about keeping Sieverodonetsk. They
will make the Russians get it, but in the process they will drain the Russian
manpower. Russian losses are now so high that the Ukrainians are essentially
safe from encirclement. They can evacuate at the time of their choosing.
Near Izium
the Ukrainians are currently conducting a ferocious counterattack. The Russians
like their counterparts in the Popasna/Sieverodonetsk front were so stupid to
put their focus too much on the city of Sloviansk. This completely exposed their
flanks and the Ukrainians are currently decimating the Russian units in a big
forest west of Izium in a battle that can only be compared to the 1944 battle
of Battle of Hürtgen Forest. The fog of war is thick, but according to reports
the Ukrainian artillery (American M777 and French CEASAR artillery reportedly
in the forefront) are absolutely annihilating Russian forces in the forest.
Only evidence for this, is the absolute insane amount of FIRMS (fire detection)
detected in the forest
Although
everyone complains about how little artillery the West sends (and of course it
should be more), there are signs that Western artillery is already making an
important impact. The Russians moved their counterbattery fire positions so
close to Ukrainian positions, that they can even be struck with the feared
Ukrainian Stugna Anti-Tank Guided Missile. It’s very rare for longer range artillery
to be hit by this type of weapons.
In
addition, the M777 and CEASAR’s managed on multiple occasions to annihilate
complete Russian MLRS batteries
However,
the most sophisticated Ukrainian counteroffensive is taking place in the
Kherson region. The Ukrainians have to advance over mostly open terrain here.
The Ukrainians are advancing very incrementally over five fronts here and are
reportedly less than ten kilometers from the city’s outskirt. It’s a mystery
why the Russians don’t went on to capitalize on their strategic gains, but I
suspect the Russian army is suffering heavily from Putin’s micromanagement.
But the
most significant development caught my eye thanks to this article from Forbes
(yes, good reporting from mainstream media for once):
Russia will
still not mobilize it’s reserve forces. Because then “the special military
operation” will officially become a war. Instead Russia will do the following
for which you will first have to understand the following:
The main
distinctive maneuvering formation in any army is a brigade. Larger major
theater deployments are usually done per brigade. A brigade usually contains
three battalion, or in Russia’s case Battalion Tactical Groups (BTG’s). Two of
these Battalions are usually meant and set up for operations. The third one is
usually the training battalion. This battalion, although fully combat equipped,
has as a main task to train new soldiers and conscripts. It also has a more
central role in logistics and administration. Until now it was a mystery how
the Russians actually deployed their brigades. It turned out till now they stuck
to common accepted doctrine which meant that the training battalions (around 40
in total) stayed behind in Russia.
Right now the
training battalions are getting fully staffed and equipped and will be send to
Ukraine. I think that the Russians central command realizes that they have to
rotate out some of their most exhausted soldiers from Ukraine and quite some of
the units need to be completely reconstituted. This is an incredibly risky (and
stupid if you as me) move. I don’t see why these units will fare any better
than the ones that are now deployed. When the training battalions will suffer
the same catastrophic battlefield losses as the units that are currently
deployed (and I don’t see a reason why they won’t), the Russian army
essentially will commit suicide by stabbing itself with a giant Katana. Not
only will it be impossible to regenerate the existing force structure, it will
be absolutely impossible to execute a (feared) mass mobilization of the
population. The training units will be better trained, but will also have to
fight with ancient equipment. The old rusty tanks and artillery that I saw on
the trains over the past couple of weeks are essentially giant steel coffins.
The fact
that Russia is actually executing this insane plan shows that the Russians themselves
think it’s far from certain they win this war. For me the first two weeks of
the war were decisive. The Russians lost their best units there. Though I fully
agree the situation is very difficult for Ukraine, it’s certainly also extremely
difficult for the Russians. Please West, just send these guns to tip the
balance.
Доброго вечора, ми з України!
Niels
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