Ukraine Blog 32 - Who has the Longest?
Dear friends, family and colleagues,
The initial
Russian punch for the towns of Lyman, Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk seems to
be over. The Russians finally discovered how they can win battles. In short:
heavy armored assaults in a concentrated area, supported by massive heavy
artillery fire. My prediction from a couple of weeks ago seems valid. We are
reaching artillery volleys we haven’t seen since the Second World War and I
suspect some of them are heavier. Entire areas in the Donbass area have now
been transformed in a cratered moon landscapes that will be contaminated by
heavy unexploded ordnance (UXO) pollution for many years to come. However, the
Russians are far certain from victory in the Donbass. It actually becomes clear
that the Russians still didn’t managed to solve their logistic problems. The
Ukrainians also are fighting against the time. What’s happening right now is a
strategic chess game that we haven’t seen since the Second World War. I will
explain why.
What we saw
being unleashed against the town of Lyman is one of the most massive artillery bombardments
in recent history. The Russians have a clear advantage in the number of
artillery they can concentrate. To give you an impression how incredibly devastating
the Russian artillery is, please look at the clip below of Russia’s TOS-1A thermobaric
rockets impacting in fields that are already moon cratered.
There’s nothing
that can withstand a TOS-1A volley in an open field. There’s very little
Ukraine can do against this. Thanks to this superiority in artillery, Russia
was able to advance effectively around Svitlodars'k, Popasna and Lyman. The
gains that Russia made there are significant. However, already we can see again
the familiar shortcomings that the Russian army has re-appearing.
1. After the Russians advance more than
five kilometers, their supply lines become stretched and less secure. The units
in the front start to go short on supplies and the artillery support they need
start to become less effective.
2. According to reports today, shelling
in Lyman and Slovianks (the supposed next target after Lyman) has almost
ceased. This is because of their advance, the Russians have to reposition their
artillery units to bring the new target areas under fire control.
And
especially the last point is the crucial window of opportunity for Ukraine here.
Ukraine already has a few artillery systems in use that outrange the Russian
artillery. Around 90 M777 howitzers and since last week, around 12 of the
formidable French CAESAR howitzers, allowing the Ukrainians to provide highly
accurate “shoot and scoot” firepower. In other words: shoot and then move quickly
to another position, rendering any Russian counter battery fire ineffective.
These
systems are both very good. Problem is, the numbers are too small to turn the
tide. But there is hope now. According to the latest diplomatic rumors, the
Americans have finally approved the delivery of the M270 and the M142 HIMARS
MLRS systems to Ukraine.
Even just a
couple of HIMARS batteries can obliterate entire Russian battalion units. Especially
the HIMARS is an extremely dangerous weapon. It’s highly mobile, it’s rockets
have a very long range and can be equipped with GPS guided rocket assisted
munitions. The Biden administration was long reluctant to deliver these systems
to Ukraine fearing they could be used to strike targets deep in Russia (which
is a totally valid thing to do).
It appears
that the Biden administration finally understands that without these systems,
Russia will likely win the battle for Donbass. But as a whole, the M270 and
HIMARS are absolutely necessary to change the course of the entire conflict decisively
in favor of Ukraine. Rumor is that the HIMARS systems that have already been forward
deployed in Romania for US army deployment, will be the ones send to Ukraine.
The only
constraint is that Americans still need political approval. As soon as this has
been done early next week, the systems can be delivered to the Ukrainians. It’s
a race against time. The Russians are now re-deploying their artillery. In this
short timeframe, the Ukrainians absolutely MUST deploy their HIMARS systems. I
simply don’t understand why the Americans don’t bring their politicians back
during the weekend. This matter simply is too important to wait. The fate of
the entire continent depends on it.
Why do I
say that? Well, it appears that the Kremlin is still convinced that after
winning the battle of Donbass, they will be in a position to strike and capture
Kyiv.
That shows
how disillusioned they are. The Russian army is on its last legs, there’s no
way they can even reach Kyiv right now. I’m convinced that they truly believe they
can do this within the Kremlin. This has to do with the fact that the Kremlin
is fed with complete inaccurate information. I will dedicate an entire presentation
about this topic to my work department this week, but the topic itself will be
too elaborate for this blog.
To show how
far they are willing to go, we just have to look at the equipment they are
pulling out of storage now. In blog 29 I stated the following:
“ The
main indication that we start to hit the bottom of the pit in terms of
equipment will be when we will start seeing T-64, T-62 and ’50’s T-55 tanks on
the battlefield. If the war grinds on, we will reach this moment by autumn.”
I have been
so wrong about this, because we already reached this point. Russia is pulling
out old T-80BV, T-62 and even ancient T-55 tanks from storage. Especially the
last type was designed just after the Second World War.
T-62
T-55
T-80BV:
look how old and dilapidated they look
The reason to
deploy these old types is, that due to corruption, many more modern types have
been stripped of parts. According to some reports, there are stored tanks that
don’t even have engines anymore. Also, there’s something seriously wrong in the
way Russia stores it military equipment. Please find a must read assessment
about this topic here:
Base for Storage and Repair of Weapons and Military Equipment (BHiRVT) (globalsecurity.org)
TsTRB tsentralnaya tankovaya rezerva baza (globalsecurity.org)
Having said
that: these old tanks can still be used in warfare and can still kill. If they
are smart, the Russians will not deploy them in the front lines, but use them
as rear-guard protection of occupied territories, like Melitopol and Kherson.
The T-55 and T-62 can even be destroyed with a simple shot from an old RPG-7. When
these mobile coffins are hit by a Javelin, rest assured that any Russian
soldier inside will be turned into barbecue meat. They totally lack an active
protection system and ERA blocks. Still, the fact that Russia deploys them,
shows, they will still likely want to go all the way.
The bad
vehicle storage and the surrounding corruption not only has an impact on vehicles,
but also on ammunition. Russia has launched the largest number of cruise
missiles by any country in the entire history of mankind. However, only 40 percent
reached their targets. 20 to 30 percent failed immediately after launch and
another 20 to 30 percent failed in flight.
These missiles
in question are the ones that Russia considers the tip of the spear of their
massive re-armament effort of the 2010’s. These are mostly brand new Kalibr and
Iskander cruise missiles. In the past years I have seen many intelligence
reports that the state of the Russian nuclear arsenal is even worse. And we are
not talking about brand new missiles there, the SS-18 Satan and SS-25 Topol are
approaching the age of forty here. Although the detonation of just one nuclear
bomb in war will already constitute a tragedy on an unimaginable scale, it does
raise the question of Russia’s first strike capability. I think the West will
survive a Russian first strike and sufficient people will survive to continue civilization.
A Western counterstrike on Russia will almost certainly wipe out the entire
country and make it uninhabitable for many generations. But trust me: we are far
off from nuclear war.
After the
bad news of last week, I’m quite more positive again thanks to the news that it’s
almost certain the M270 and the M142 HIMARS will be provided to Ukraine. Still
we have the problem of some surrender monkeys in the Western ranks. Most
notably German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who despite earlier promises to provide
heavy equipment still hasn’t delivered a single piece of heavy weaponry to Ukraine.
Where other countries delivered weapons that were in store for years in matter
of days, Germany has “logistical and bureaucratic challenges.” I find it hard
to believe that the most industrialized country in Europe has difficulties in
these areas. Scholz his earlier remarks about reaching a truce also didn’t help
his image. But the worst surrender monkey of them all turned out to be 99 year
old former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. The old senile idiot thinks
it’s perfectly fine to surrender land to Russia for the “sake of reaching
peace.” It’s a shame that a man with distinguished diplomatic career and many
achievements in his fields lowers himself to this level in the final stages of
his life.
And that’s
perhaps the message: the world doesn’t need old grey men like, Kissinger, Scholz,
Putin and Luka, but a fresh inspiring new generation, like Volodymyr Zelenskyy,
Moldova’s Maia Sandu and Finland’s Sanna Marin.
Доброго вечора, ми з України!
Niels
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