Ukraine Blog 29 - The Global Theatre and the Eurovision Battle
Dear friends, family and colleagues,
Updates become
less frequent. That’s because we are seeing the Russian offensive reaching its
climax. But that doesn’t mean there’s not a lot to talk about. The Ukrainians
have decisively defeated the Russians north of Kharkiv. Bringing the Russian
supply line at Vovchansk well within range of their new M777 American supplied
howitzers. This already put Russia in the position that it absolutely has to
make decisions right now on how to proceed with the war. And although I see a
hint towards which decision they are going to make, no clear path forward has
been presented yet.
The offensive
north of Kharkiv has forced the Russians to bring Battalion Tactical Groups (BTG’s)
from the Donbass, to the Kharkiv and Belgorod regions. Ukrainian artillery has
proven to be devastating in the areas of Kharkiv and Izium. Those two reasons are
now in the same phase as just before the Russian collapse in Kyiv. I expect the
Russians to abandon the Kharkiv and Izium fronts within days to focus entirely
in an all or nothing offensive on Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. This is the
last area in Luhansk oblast under Ukrainian government control. The Russians did
make an important advance there. After months of fighting, they finally
captured the city of Rubizhne, north of Sievierodonetsk. It has to be said
here: this is a very important victory for the Russians and will definitely
worsen the Ukrainian position. They also captured the town of Popasna, south of
Lysychansk. They captured both towns against horrific losses. When looking at
the map, it’s clear what’s happening here. Did the Russians originally planned
to encircle the Joint Group of Forces from Izium to link up with forces from
the Southern front advancing from Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia oblast, the scope
has now been narrowed to a miniature encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Sievierodonetsk
and Lysychansk, by linking up forces from Popasna and Rubizhne. A total encirclement
of the Joint Group of Forces is now off the table. Very good news for Ukraine.
The
Russians are now down to their last reserves for offensive operations. The Sievierodonetsk
will be the last offensive the Russian army will be able to conduct for a long
time. And it’s really very prevalent Russian capable manpower has reached the bottom
of the pit. I watched (and I’m still watching) in amaze the absolute insane
level of incompetence the Russian army shows when trying to cross the small
Siverskyi Donets river at the village of Bilohorivka. Time and again they tried
to build an army bridge on the same spot, only to be devastated each time by
very accurate Ukrainian artillery fire, losing two complete battalions in KIA
(1500 men) and hundreds of pieces of equipment. At one moment about 30 vehicles
had crossed the bridge when it was destroyed, leaving them completely isolated.
Ukrainian defenders massacred all of those Russian troops. The Russians absolutely
made the most basic military mistake here: never cross a river or perform a
naval landing without having a minimal of two bridgeheads secured.
You have to
see this incompetence of the bigger picture what’s happening here. I get a lot
of questions asking “Are all Russian people really this stupid?” No, of course
not. Many Russians are very smart and intelligent. The problem is that we are
seeing how devastating a brain drain can be to a nation. A significant part of
the highly educated and skilled Russians have left the country, it’s most
capable soldiers have been killed. What’s left now in Russia are the non-educated,
non-skilled hordes from the countryside and Siloviki families. Yes, the Russian
Rubble is still doing surprisingly well, but that won’t save the nation. You
need brains besides money.
Whereas we
reached rock bottom with regards to trained soldiers, the same cannot yet be
said for the equipment stocks. Russia is still able to bring sufficient older
model T-72 and T-80 tanks from storage into battle and they won’t have problems
doing this for at least a couple of months more. The main indication that we
start to hit the bottom of the pit in terms of equipment will be when we will
start seeing T-64, T-62 and ’50’s T-55 tanks on the battlefield. If the war grinds
on, we will reach this moment by autumn.
And it will
likely go on till autumn. Not only in Ukraine, but is slowly becomes clear what
the global battlefields will become in this new world war (like I said in the previous
blog, that’s what it is right now). So first of all: Ukraine updated its strategic
battlefield objectives. Ukraine is absolutely convinced (and me as well) that
they will win this war. Multiple Ukrainian officials now openly stated the
complete expulsion of all Russian forces from all of Ukraine is now the
strategic objective. And considering recent developments I agree with this.
Russia also has to be removed from Crimea for the following reasons:
1. Removing Russia from Crimea, blow up
the Kerch strait bridge and destroying the Black Sea Fleet will remove one of
the most dangerous fronts of attack for Ukraine. It will make Ukraine much more
easy to defend in the future. Ukraine can for its defense concentrate entirely
on the Eastern border.
2. Even if Ukraine retakes all of
Ukraine, minus Crimea, the Russian navy can still cause trouble for years in blockading
Ukrainian ports and cause a threat to the global food supply. Only a total destruction
of the Black Sea Fleet can open up the Ukrainian grain supply again.
Also on the
global theater it becomes clear what the battlegrounds will be. Both Russia and
the West are making preparations for escalation. These will be the most likely candidates
for fighting beyond Ukraine.
1. Moldova: in the current state of the
conflict, Russia will see Moldova as a target of opportunity. As soon as there
will be an option, they will start to cause trouble in Moldova. However, once
Ukraine stabilizes the Southern front, I will expect the Ukrainian army to
invade Transnistria as well. This area has been a source of instability for 30
years and eliminating any Russian threat beyond the Eastern border is essential
in any Ukrainian long term security strategy.
2. Abkhazia, South-Ossetia. Russia has set July 17th
as a date on a referendum on the accession of South-Ossetia (internationally recognized
as part of Georgia) to the Russian Federation.
Russia is keen on provoking
the Georgians here and drag them into this conflict. Although the ruling authoritarian
“Georgian Dream,” party has been quite pro-Russian, Russia still sees more benefits
in further escalation. And Russia has shrugged off all cloaks of trying to
present itself has a protector of Russians who want to live in their own
independent states like the Donetsk People’s Republic or a projected Kherson
People’s Republic. Russia is now conducting an old fashioned 19th
century colonial war, focused on the annexation of territory wherever it can.
3. Karabakh: Azerbaijan will intervene
at the earliest possible opportunity. We already saw some limited advances. The
Azeries are just waiting now.
4. Syria: Yes, I expect the Syrian Civil
war to heat up again and it will become very hot. The most important indication
is that the Americans exempted the Kurdish controlled territories from the crushing
sanctions they put on the Assad regime. This will enable the Americans to pour
in huge amounts of aid into the area controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces
(SDF) and will lead to economic competition the SDF will definitely win.
Let’s not forget that Putin
humiliated the West in Syria and caused the flow of millions of Syrian refugees
to Europe. Elimination of the Russian presence in Syria will be crucial in any
strategic defeat of Russia. The groundworks are now clearly being laid.
5. Finland: Nobody missed this obviously.
Finland and Sweden will both apply for NATO membership. And although I don’t
expect open warfare of Russia against Finland (they don’t have the capabilities
to do this right now), I do expect a fair amount of hybrid warfare against Finland,
like cyber-attacks, sabotage and bringing immigrants to the border in the same
fashion as Belarus his president Alexander Lukashenko did last year.
6. Belarus: Speaking of Luka, well his fate
is now entirely tied to that of Putin. The day Putin goes, so will Luka.
However, I expect unrest to increase as the sanctions start to bite. There are
already major state enterprises on strike without Opposition coordination. This
has never happen before. Social unrest will definitely provoke a Kremlin reaction.
Putin can’t afford to lose Belarus.
7. North-Sea: this is pure speculation
on the training I have seen the Russians performing in the North-Sea over the
past 20 years. I expect very aggressive Russian naval maneuvering from Russia’s
Northern Fleet and quite possibly harassment of trading routes and supply
convoys in the coming months. Russia’s navy has been training for years for
this.
The West is
now in full swing to counter Russia in a global theatre. Sweden and Finland
will be joining NATO soon. So is all well now? No we still have two troublemakers
in the Western alliance. French president Emmanuel Macron and German chancellor
Olaf Scholz are still having their regular calls with Putin. Macron came back with
the statement that “we shouldn’t humiliate Putin.” Scholz called for an “immediate
ceasefire.” Well, humiliate Putin, that’s exactly what we need to do. The only
thing Putin understand, is strength, not weak beta-male behavior. Only a total
complete defeat of Russia will end this war. A call for a ceasefire is equally
dangerous: as soon as Putin agrees, he will have won. It will be an acknowledgement
that he’s still part of the world community and he will have time to replenish
his forces. Western politicians should understand that negotiations work when
solving tensions or to diffuse limited skirmishes. Total war (that’s what we’re
in right now) only ends with the complete surrender of either one of the two
parties involved. The following statement done a couple of weeks ago is so true
in this context:
Latvian
Defense Minister Artis Pabriks: “We are afraid not of Russian tanks, but of
Western weakness.”
Although clear
evidence of their weakness, I’m not afraid of Scholz and Macron anymore. For
Ukraine there’s simply no incentive to negotiate for the very simple reason
that Ukraine is winning on all fronts. Russia will also not start negotiations
for the simple reason that their leadership is stupid and still believes that
it can get a total victory in Ukraine. And that’s the truth for Russian on both
a micro and macro level. "We're very lucky they are so f*cking
stupid". This is what a Ukrainian Special Forces soldier said when a Russian
war criminal put his Instagram account on a wall in Bucha so he could be
tracked down. And although the Ukrainians fight like lions, Russian stupidity
will also be a major contributor to their defeat.
The final
words for this blog will come as a surprise to many of you: it will be about
the Eurovision Songfestival. For me the Song Festival always was more about the
showbiz than the music. It was really fun experiencing it once in one of The
Hague’s gay bars (a big recommendation!), but it never got me fully. I’m not a
sudden sympathizer of the Song Festival just because Ukraine is now in this war
situation and “I have to feel sorry.” However, Ukraine over the past three
years really put its mark on the evolution of this event. Were the Ukrainian
contributions to the Eurovision until 2014 were mostly focused on acts that
were mostly in line with the Eurovision standards, the Ukrainian contributions
over the past three years all focused on
1. Slavic history
2. Pre-Christian pagan history
3. Musical innovation (combining techno
and hip-hop with ethno-music with traditional instruments like the sopilka and the
telenka)
There are
no definitive answers to this evolution, but it’s no secret that Ukraine’s
president Volodymyr Zelenskyy background in the showbiz, his historical
awareness and his willingness to promote Ukraine on the world stage to the very
least are helping here. Rest assured, this is only the start of what Ukraine
has to offer the world for the rest of the 21st century. Below some
Ukrainian musical achievements (not all Eurovision. You guys know I'm a rock/hip-hop guy and there're some good suggestions here). Although not militarily, it's a victory for Ukraine and it will help.
Go_A - Solovey - Ukraine 🇺🇦 - Official Video - Eurovision 2020 - YouTube
Go_A - SHUM - Ukraine 🇺🇦 - Official Music Video - Eurovision 2021 - YouTube
Kalush Orchestra - Stefania (Official Video Eurovision 2022) - YouTube
JINJER - I Speak Astronomy (Official Video) | Napalm Records - YouTube
Океан Ельзи - Не твоя війна (official video Okean Elzy - Ne tvoya viyna) - YouTube
ТІНЬ СОНЦЯ - НА НЕБЕСНИХ КОНЯХ (full album 2020) - YouTube
PROBASS ∆ HARDI - ДОБРОГО ВЕЧОРА (WHERE ARE YOU FROM?) - YouTube
Бумбокс. Таємний код: Рубікон /Full album/ - YouTube
KARNA - Party на Прикарпатті (Official video) - YouTube
Доброго вечора, ми з України!
Niels
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