Ukraine Blog 26 - The Looming Battle for Belgorod
Dear friends, family and colleagues,
It has been
a while since the last update. This is because the Ukrainian meatgrinder worked
overtime and as a result the frontline changes have been minimal. Russia has
captured some villages around Kreminna and Izium, but against insane battlefield
casualties. We are talking about 300 to 400 KIA per day. For comparison: the
Americans in the worst period of Operation Iraqi Freedom, suffered 150 KIA per
MONTH! Russian losses are insanely high and totally unsustainable. The
Ukrainians now have the opportunity to perform very good defense in depth. The
Ukrainians are in complete control of the situation right now and are just playing
with the Russian columns.
In the latest
sign of desperation, Putin sent Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov to Izium to
personally oversee the battle. This not only means that the new central commander
Aleksandr Dvornikov has been bypassed, rest assured, he will be high on the target
list of the Bayraktars. In the meantime, NATO started a true airbridge to Rzeszow.
Literally dozens of flights are arriving every day and supply ships are
prepared to cross the Atlantic Ocean in World War II fashion.
The Biden
administration authorized 33 Billion USD in military aid for Ukraine. To put
this in perspective. Multi-year aid packages for large U.S. arms importers like
Saudi-Arabia are usually around 15 Billion USD. As part of the previous package
the M270 MLRS system is already operational by Ukraine.
This is a
very advanced and highly accurate MLRS system, that has a longer range and
higher accuracy than any of the Russian MLRS systems. Details about the 33
Billion USD package have not been released yet, but rest assured, that the full
force of very advanced NATO weaponry in high numbers will go to Ukraine. I
expect the Leopard II and M1A2 Abrams tanks to be part of it. It’s now also
official that this will be part of a lend-lease construction, which means that
after the war Ukraine will need to give back the weapons to the West. Let’s be
clear about this: Western support evolved from “let’s arm Ukraine as best as possible
for an insurgency,” to “let’s provide Ukraine with the most advanced armament
to provide a strategic knockout blow to Russia” in a matter of weeks.
I’m totally
convinced right now that the main strategic goal of the West is to completely
remove Russia as a strategic actor from the international arena for the rest of
the 21st century. One of the main indications of what’s about to come
next is the following: The Ukrainians have been pressing very hard in the north
of Kharkiv. At the moment, the last villages between Kharkiv and the Russian
border are being cleared or Russian forces. All indications are, so Ukrainian
movements and Western weaponry, that the Ukrainians will go on a full blown
offensive towards Belgorod in Russia. This has a large number of objectives:
1. By assaulting Belgorod, the Russian
population will get their share of war. War for them was relatively far away,
now it will finally reach them.
2. Belgorod is the main logistics hub. When
the Ukrainians manage to occupy it, Russia is deprived of a major railway hub,
oil and gas logistics and military bases close to Ukraine.
3. Russia will be forced to move troops
out of Ukraine for the defense of the motherland. Ukraine will get some much
needed air.
4. As opposed to what you might think,
Ukrainian troops fighting on Russian soil will be free from the thread of nuclear
weapons. When Russia needs to deploy nuclear weapons on its own soil, it will
kill first and foremost Russians and it will look even weaker.
5. When Ukraine manages to capture a significant
chunk of Russian territory, it can be used to trade it back against occupied
Ukrainian territory. This last point is important, because the war in Ukraine
will then for the first time becomes an even chess play.
I was
observing these movements over the past couple of days, when by accident I also
noticed that there were updates on the FSB letters, published by Igor Sushko.
We discussed them earlier in “Ukraine Blog 12.”
This exact
scenario is also mentioned there. To me this is proof the FSB letters are legit,
since the behavior on the battlefield evolves pretty much along the lines of what
the FSB files predict.
I think indeed
that Putin will announce a full mobilization on the 9th of May.
Especially when the Ukrainians will indeed attack Belgorod. But this will be
his biggest and last mistake. I simply don’t see how a completely untrained,
demotivated male population with ancient dilapidated weapons from the sixties
and seventies can fight against a well-motivated army that’s now in possession
of the most modern Western weapons.
As a matter
of fact, since about two days, I can’t think of any scenario (including
nuclear) where Russia can win this war. The Ukrainians are in control of the
battlefield, the Russians are lightyears away from encircling the Joint Group
of Forces. This has given them the time needed to ship in very large numbers of
very modern Western weapons right into the Joint Group of Forces area. The only
weapons Russia can bring in are very old ones like these ancient artillery
guns.
Russian now
has 92 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTG) in Ukraine. 20 more are in the process
of being completely rebuild from scratch from remnants of combat ineffective BTG’s.
Russia started the war with 132 BTG’s. That means that the equivalent of 20 BTG’s
were completely annihilated.
I
originally planned to write another special today, but this update was simply
to important to wait. It will be about why I think I was wrong about the low likelihood
of a Russian action in Moldova. I was very disturbed about this tweet.
In the special
I will explain why I became so disturbed and we will have a look at very
dubious figures like Wargonzo and Graham Philips.
Best regards and "Slava Ukraini!"
Niels
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