Ukraine Blog 23 - Kharkiv: Kyiv on Repeat
Dear friends, family and colleagues,
We are
slowly building up to what inside sources in Russia already call the big “Spring
Offensive.” All signs point to a continuing massive buildup of Russian troops
to Izium and the Donbass. However, it’s also clear that Ukrainians don’t give
the Russians any rest during their buildup.
Reports and
footage from the East are very scarce, but all signals point to the Ukrainians
absolutely giving everything they have to attack the Russians on all points
possible before they reach their staging areas for attack. This is necessary
for three reasons
1. The Ukrainians want to destroy as
much as equipment as possible before it reaches the front lines.
2. When the Russian soldiers are
already under attack the moment they cross the border and are not even in the
battlefield area, will have a heavy impact on the morale. After all, we are
entering week 8 of the war and many of those soldiers were brought in from the northern
front and are not in a good mood to fight again in this very different part of
Ukraine.
3. It makes the Russians realize that
they can’t secure their supply lines. This is very dangerous from a military
standpoint. You have to keep your supply lines secure. Otherwise, don’t even
start thinking about an insurgency.
According
to the scarce reports, the Ukrainians use two tactics:
1. Special forces and/or partisan units
behind enemy lines. We already saw before in Sumy (where the Russians have now
withdrawn) that Ukrainians partisans could lay havoc on Russian units. I think
this is happening to an even more significant extent in rural Kharkiv. There’s
even evidence Ukrainian sabotage units are executing missions in Russia itself
as seen by this heavily damaged railroad bridge inside Russia on the way to Belgorod
Also around Izium, the Ukrainians are causing havoc
2. The biggest surprise to me is the
incredible accuracy of the Ukrainian artillery. It’s raining video’s right now
of absolutely never seen before levels of accuracy of artillery. Before the war,
it was said that Ukraine would have a disadvantage over Russia in terms of
artillery. It was said that Ukraine used the same guns as Russia, but Russia
modernized them and increased the range. As is the case with so many topics during
this war: in the end it’s all about motivation, training and creativity.
Russians only use their artillery to level cities. Ukrainians skillfully deploy
Forward Controllers and drones to guide the projectiles to their targets with
pinpoint accuracy.
Some of the many highlights
What also
becomes apparent in the footage and reports, is that Russia is making exactly
the same mistakes as they did during their disastrous Kyiv offensive. They:
1. Move in a large (this time 15 kilometer)
long column towards Izium. Like the first messages from Kyiv, reports are now
that the column has “difficulties moving.”
2. Stay entirely on the roads where
they are sitting ducks for the Ukrainian artillery and partisan units with NLAW’s
and Stugna’s
The condition
that will make it worse than Kyiv, is that the snow has now definitely melted
and all the surrounding fields are now oceans of mud. This means they can’t
move their artillery in field positions. The fact that is happening in around
Izium and the areas all the way to the Russian border, means that Russia has
not been able to capitalize on its new central commander and the capture of Izium.
Once again: once the Russian army has advanced more than 150/200 kilometers
from its border, it becomes very vulnerable.
The only
thing were Russia seems to be in a genuine more favorable position, is air
superiority. I have seen many video’s of very low flying Russian SU-25’s in the
Donbass and no footage at all of Ukrainian air activity (not even Bayraktars)
I think it’s
plausible that Russia has brought in sufficient mobile Surface to Air Missile
systems to deter Ukrainian air assets from that area. Close air Support is definitely
something that may help incompetent ground forces. But quite frankly that’s all
I think Russia can achieve with its airpower.
Today
Russia again threatened to attack NATO convoys bringing weapons into Ukraine.
They already threatened one month ago. Till now, not a single airstrike has
been carried out on a NATO convoy. I seriously think this hasn’t happened for
two reasons:
1. Russia is not able to deploy the
required air assets that far into Ukraine. The center and West of the Ukrainian
airspace is now firmly back under control of Ukraine. Russia only strikes there
right now with cruise-missiles and surface to surface missiles. You simply can’t
attack convoys with cruise missiles. You need aircraft or attack helicopters to
do that.
2. I noticed for the past two weeks
that Russia no longer dares to raise a serious fist towards NATO. Their
response to upcoming Finnish and Swedish NATO membership is very moderate. I
seriously start to think now that they don’t even consider to strike NATO
territory anymore. NATO is continuing to deliver weapons and now finally they
are even sending in much needed tanks and artillery. NATO starts to understand
that Russia can’t do anything about this and that they can raise the stakes. And
heavier weapons is what Ukraine need right now. In case the Russians manage to
get Mariupol and consolidate in Izium, they can move south and north on flat terrain.
This is wide open terrain in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts where you
absolutely need tanks to stay alive and defeat the enemy. The Poles started to
deliver 100 older model T-72’s and the Slovaks deliver self-propelled Zuzana artillery.
And
airpower also won’t make a difference around Mariupol. They are now desperately
deploying propaganda measures to convince the Ukrainian defenders that “the end”
is near. Russia deployed the following (amongst other measures):
1. Posting fake footage of surrenders
(discussed before)
2. Hacking the facebook site of the
Ukrainian marines posting a message that this would be their last day of combat
and they were expecting hand to hand combat soon.
Truth is
that the Mariupol defenders are under severe pressure and they for sure are
starting to get low on ammunition. Still they manage to regroup as is shown
below by the video below where we can see the confirmation that they Ukrainian
marines broke through the lines to link up with the Azov battalion for a joint
defense.
The most
severe headache for the Russians right now are the two massive factories in
Mariupol, Azovstal steel factory and Azovmash engineering factory. Ukrainian
resistance is very stiff and small units can maneuver through the industrial
installations with ease. Under Azovmash is a giant underground bunker complex
where the Ukrainian soldiers have the ability to safely rest and replenish.
The Russian
should how difficult it is to conquer such a vast industrial complex. During
the battle of Stalingrad, the Germans and Soviets fought for Dzerzhinskiy
Tractor Factory for months in a row. It’s quite ironic it happens again in
2022. However, this time the Russians are the attackers…
So how are
things meanwhile in Russia. Well, I saw some crazy propaganda during the past
years, but I think they either start to lose it or they don’t give a damn
anymore
1. Maria Zakharova, the famous press representative of the Russian foreign affairs, declared (obviously drunk) that the war started because Ukrainians didn’t want to share borscht (for Western readers: this is some kind of very nice sour soup) with her. Kirill Martynov on Twitter: "At this speech the official representative of @MID_RF Maria Zakharova declared that the reason for war was Ukrainians didn't want to share borscht with her. Also she is apparently absolutely drunk https://t.co/fHmWsim59H" / Twitter
2. Vladimir Solovyov, the front runner
of the Russian propaganda machine (and whose assets in Italy, including a villa
at lake Como, have been seized) tried to perform some kind of devil’s exorcism
on Russian state TV.
I googled
both videos and waited multiple comments from native Russian speakers to
confirm that it’s actually real footage and not some kind of deep fake. To be clear: it's absolutely real! It
shows how incredibly deep the Russian state has sunk. Both performances would
be hilarious under normal circumstance, but I’m frightened by its dark
undertone:
1. Besides the lies, it will be very
hard to ever take Russia serious again, even in a post-Putin era. It shows not
only he needs to go, but the entire system he represents. The entire system of
Siloviki should be dismantled.
2. It shows that Russia doesn’t care
about its image anymore. It’s a confirmation that for them it’s “us against the
rest of the world.” On the one hand it means that any negotiation with Russia
is useless. We really shouldn’t waste any effort on it anymore. On the other
hand it begs the question: do people like Zakharova and Solovyov really believe
in the system or did they simple stop caring and simply try to go along by giving
these insane performances as part of the system?
What’s
becoming clear right now is that Russia is facing an unprecedented brain drain.
Close to half a million young (that Russia desperately needs) and highly educated
people left Russia since the start of the war and many more are making plans to
follow. Hardly anyone returns to Russia. This means that the share of
uneducated people from the old generation is increasing. While we can certainly
use the brains of smart, young Russian professionals in the West, it also means
that voices of resistance become increasingly more weak in Russia. I said it
before: Putin will only truly be gone as soon as the last of his generation
also passed away...
Best regards and "Slava Ukraini!"
Niels
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