Ukraine Blog 16 - When You Sign A Deal With The Devil... There's A Price To Pay
Dear friends, family and colleagues,
One month
has now passed since the Russians started their “adventure” in Ukraine. For the
past two days it can be decisively said that the Ukrainians have gone on the
offensive around Kyiv and Kherson. Russian troops are exhausted there and
either suffering from frostbite around Kherson (ironically like the Wehrmacht
who were sent to Russia in summer uniforms) and wet feet around Kyiv where the
Ukrainians flooded the main area they hold.
It was
already clear to me that especially around Kyiv the Russians gave up hope on
proceeding with further offensives. Three days ago footage emerged that the
Russians where moving their equipment in defensive earth berms.
This might have
worked in conventional warfare thirty years ago, but against the very skilled
Ukrainian artillery and Bayraktar drones, this is absolutely suicide. When you
are in the position where the Russians are right now in the north-west of Kyiv,
you need to stay mobile and continuously change your position to stay alive. I
would like to emphasize that Russian troops are likely not encircled in the north-west
of Kyiv as Western media reports, but their supply lines do have serious
problems. @Western media: when an army approaches a city, it doesn’t mean that
it’s immediately encircled. This is a circle ○. This is not a circle Ↄ! So
Kyiv, Kharkiv, Bucha and Hostomel = Ↄ,
Mariopol = ○
On the East
of Kyiv, the Ukrainians managed to beat back the Russians quite far of the
city. Below video is from Lukyanovka, around 30 kilometers east of Brovary,
which till now has been the main Russian pressure point East of Kyiv. It’s not clear
Brovary itself, has also been cleared, but at the very least the Russian supply
lines are under great threat.
The
Russians seem to have lost the initiative everywhere in Ukraine, except around
the Donbass and most notably Mariupol. All their efforts seem to be focusing on
capturing Mariupol as soon as possible. They go all in on this front and I
think they will eventually capture the city. Although that will free up
resources for deployments to other fronts, the Russian (and Ukrainian) manpower
losses have been devastating. For the Ukrainians besides the souls lost, it’s
less of a problem. As long as there’s resistance in Mariupol, it means that the
rest of Ukraine can breathe. Therefore, I don’t see the Ukrainian resistance in
Mariupol as a lost cause.
I get a lot
of questions whether the Russian generals don’t feel ashamed to turn a city
into rubble and deport its civilians. Short answer: No! The Russian generals
are now in absolute overdrive suck up mode to boss in the Kremlin. The commander
who gets Mariupol will undoubtedly receives the “Hero of the Russian Federation”
reward. Too bad Putin will immediately give him another reward: take the next city:
Either Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia or Dnipro. Good luck with that. As always when
aligning with Putin: There’s a price to pay (more on that later)
Are the
Russians capable of creating new colossal fuckups on the Southern Eastern front
every day? Oh yes, they can! Yesterday, they extended their level of
incompetence to the navy. They had the brilliant idea to supply the troops in Berdiansk
via three of their Landing Ship – Tank (LST’s) and show on television the disembarkment
of equipment. Of course the Ukrainians were watching as well.
Two days
later, this was the result of an Ukrainian attack (likely Bayraktar). Please
enjoy, this is 10 minutes of HD footage of Russian incompetence. One of their
LST’s completely destroyed and two others fleeing to the sea while on fire.
БЕРДЯНСК: взрывы и пожар в порту 24 марта 2022 года - YouTube
Many of my
fellow OSINT analysts dismissed the importance of the hit as “minor.” However,
I can’t stress how important this strike is for the following reasons
1. Russia obviously has great difficulties
performing even a limited amphibious operation. In order to succeed they are
absolutely dependent on specifically this type of ship of which the Russian
navy has only 21, nine (now eight) of which are deployed in the Black Sea. It means
that when they lose just one ship, their capabilities suffer a great setback.
2. Russian naval infantry absolutely
was not eager to go on an amphibious adventure on the shores of Odessa. The
sinking of one of their main assets won’t make their appetite bigger and will
for sure cause a further drop in morale.
I
absolutely can’t understand this incredible level of incompetence. Why not
supply the troops via commercial cargo ships? The Russians have plenty of them.
I suspect they wanted to shoot some very cheap propaganda clips. The only good
action was to send the other two Ropucha class LST’s to the sea while burning.
That for sure saved them. Later satellite footage showed they indeed managed to
put out the fires.
In the West,
NATO has absolutely waken up and has performed some very important and necessary
force postures during the past couple of days.
1. The US military deployed its very
advanced Stryker brigade right to the Belarussian border. This is absolutely
necessary to deter Russia from starting any offensive to take the Suwalki gap between
Belarus and Kaliningrad. Russian state propaganda (usually a good indicator of
what the Kremlin’s plans are) touted ideas during the past couple of days to
take on Poland and Lithuania. The deployment of the Stryker brigade is essential
in posing an effective deterrence.
2. The French deployed three of their Strategic
Ballistic Nuclear Submarines (SSBN’s) at once. Normally there’s just one on
patrol at any given time. The last time more than one was on patrol was during the
1980’s. Again: this deployment is very important to show the Russians that NATO
means business. Like I said before: we should show strength, not weakness to
the Russians.
And this is
part of what will be a more realistic “new normal.” For the foreseeable future
we will be in the situation that will have 100.000 battle ready NATO troops on
the Eastern flank, nuclear assets on constant alert and that NATO members will
be spending a lot of money on re-armament.
The Russians
on the other hand seem to tend more and more towards mobilization of their
reserve troops and possibly the population. It becomes clear right now that
Russia’s allies, which Russia saved from disintegration during the past ten
years are not eager to return Putin’s favor. Both Lukashenko and Assad seem to
step back from sending their forces to the Ukrainian meatgrinder. And this
shows the true nature of classic dictators: they are all opportunistic in
nature and they come to realize that when they signed a deal with Putin, they
sold their souls to the devil. For Putin it has always been: “I will save you,
but there will be a price to pay in the future.” Now that Putin comes to
collect, his friends don’t want to join in. Let’s have a look at the Syrians
that might after all still be send in. In case they go, they will likely make
things worse for the Russians on the battlefield.
1. Syrians in Ukraine will fight on
completely unknown terrain against and army and population they are absolutely
not familiar with. Already Russians who know the cold are suffering from
frostbite. I can’t imagine how that will go for the Syrians.
2. Only some Syrian officers speak a
little bit of Russian. All the troops on the battlefield only speak Arab. The
Russians already have enormous problems sending orders in Russian to their own
troops. When they mix the Syrians in, they will likely maneuver like headless
chickens in the Russian lines causing more damage than good.
3. Arab armies can for sure crush an
insurgency, but they have a notoriously bad track record against well motivated
and equipped conventional armies like the Israelis and the Americans. On
unfamiliar terrain against the fanatically defending Ukrainians they wouldn’t
stand a chance.
4. The Syrian rebels smell blood. Most
notably Suhail Muhammad Hamoud , a.k.a. “Abu TOW” already indicated very early
on in the conflict that he’s willing to go to Ukraine to kill as many Russians
as possible. Abu TOW, get’s his nickname from his experience with Saudi-supplied
American BGM-71 TOW anti-tank missiles on the Syrian battlefield. Abu TOW is
the most experienced guided anti-tank missile operator in the world, with over
140 confirmed kills.
Meet Abu TOW!
أبو التاو مقاتل متخصص بتدمير دبابات نظام الأسد - YouTube
I think
Assad really doesn’t have appetite in sending his forces to far away Ukraine,
but in case it would happen, we will see the Syrian civil war being played out
on an European battlefield. Just when you think it can’t get more crazier…
Let this be
a lesson for everyone: weak appeasement towards dictators or making deals with
dictators means you’re signing a deal with the devil and your signature will be
in blood. The deal may seem really good: there will always be a price to pay. I
will close with a quote from the man that created many famous quotes: Winston Churchill
“An
appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile-hoping it will eat him last.”
Best
regards and "Slava Ukraini!"
Niels
Comments
Post a Comment