Ukraine Blog 60 – “Our side is doing worse than yours”
Dear friends, family and colleagues,
It has been a while since the last update. For most casual observers, it seems that the front has been stuck for a while now. This is partly true, because of the insane amount of Russian landmines. However, I’m also convinced that Ukraine changed their strategy and this all has to do with some very worrying signs from NATO/the U.S. president.
Already since the start of this year
I fear that at one moment, the West will start to pressure Ukraine to start
negotiations with the Russians. In the United States, election year is
approaching and I think Joe Biden wants to settle the war in any shape or form
before the elections. After the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, Biden
needs a geopolitical “win.” Last month it became clear that Western organizations
have already started to drop soundbites to prepare the public for this
scenario. Jens Stoltenberg dropped this interesting statement, which he
withdrew after widespread criticism.
If the West really starts to push for negotiations, Ukraine will have no choice but to at least consider it. Ukraine’s survival is dependent on arms deliveries from the West. You know my opinion about negotiations with Russia. Any settlement that doesn’t include 1. Ukrainian control of Crimea 2. Moldovan control of Transnistria is not a strategic victory for Ukraine and will only serve as an interlude to a second war around 2028 and 3. Optionally a revolution in Belarus
I think Ukraine got the message and instead of preparing for negotiations, Ukraine has started to shift its strategy from a quick reconquest of territory to a complete obliteration of Russian offensive military equipment and a more gradual reconquest of territory. When the West is aiming for a ceasefire frozen conflict it might be a good idea to rid your enemy of as much equipment and personnel as possible.
It’s only in the past two days that
I see the definite signals of Ukraine’s new strategy. They consist of the
following points.
1. Over the past three months, Ukraine
has aggressively conducted suppression/destruction of enemy air defenses
(SEAD/DEAD), especially on Crimea.
Ukraine claims to blow up
crucial Russian air defences in Crimea - YouTube
The number of destroyed anti-aircraft systems has now surpassed the
number of 500 according to the daily Ukrainian losses report. This is an
incredible achievement for a country with only fighter jets that are more than
30 years old.
I don’t think all anti-aircraft systems were destroyed. Part of it has
likely been redeployed to Russia itself since Ukraine started to successfully
destroy and damage Russian strategic bomber and airlift capabilities deep
inside Russia
Confirmed! Tu-22M3 Destroyed
by Drone at Soltsy-2 Airbase - YouTube
2. It means that now for the first time
in many months, Ukraine’s Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones are back in the fight.
These famous Turkish drones can now operate with impunity in large parts of
Crimea and Kherson oblasts. This coincides with huge amounts of destroyed
trucks in Ukraines daily Russian losses report. For four days we are above 40
trucks per day. We haven’t seen these numbers since the first days of the
Russian invasion when Bayrakar’s were finishing off Rosgvardia columns
consisting of dozens of vehicles at a time.
Moment Ukraine bombs Russian
landing boat and FSB building - YouTube
Ukrainian Bayraktar TB-2
drone Blows up Russian Ural Truck in the South. - YouTube
3. Russia is realizing the situation at
the Zaporizhzhia front is getting very serious for them. This is illustrated by
the redeployment of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division (GAAD) from
Kupyansk/Kreminna to the Zaporizhzhia front. Russia wants to plug these holes
in near Robotyne and Verbove.
As predicted, it took the Ukrainians less than 24 hours to pass the concrete
cope Toblerone’s. What really hurt the Ukrainian army were the minefields.
4. The 76th GAAD is by far
Russia’s most capable division. What I think is happening right now, is that Ukraine’s
HIMARS and Excalibur 155 mm artillery rounds are pounding the exhausted mobiks
in the first Russian lines, while the Bayraktars are hitting the supply columns
with fresh troops. For a long time I thought the Ukrainians were hitting the
bridges connecting Crimea with Kherson oblast to prevent logistics from coming
in. I now believe that they hit them to prevent the Russians from escaping and
completely destroy Russian armored formations. This is something Thomas Theiner
also noted last month. At the time I wasn’t fully convinced that this was the
strategy, but now I am
Remember, I said it many times before and I will say it again: In case Ukraine manages to reach the Crimean border, they will capture it without their ground troops firing a shot.
If Russia can’t replace its air defense and ground artillery cover on the front lines and the Bayraktars will have free space to hunt the Russians, it’s very likely we will see a sudden Russian collapse in a couple of weeks. Russian milbloggers for weeks are now crying about an “Artillery Genocide” the Ukrainian army imposes on them. Every day we see many drone videos coming out of huge numbers of Russian artillery burning. The Russian army is an artillery based army. If this part becomes ineffective, not only units, but the entire Russian war doctrine comes into question.
In terms of information coming from milbloggers from both sides, we are in kind of a unique situation. Normally your own side tends to exaggerate the position of their own. However, Russian channels like Wargonzo and Romanov continuously state that the Russian situation is very bad. On the Ukrainian side, channels like Smart Ukrainian Cat and Tatarigami_UA are saying the Ukrainian side has really serious issues. This is a situation I have never seen before in any conflict and ensures that the fog of war is unusually thick in this war. Opposing bloggers are literally competing to make clear their owns side has the most challenges.
What I can say for sure right now, is that Russia is steadily losing its mechanized and artillery forces. I spent hours scrolling over Russian deep storage areas and all indicators are there that they are getting empty now. Russia can likely still field 150 refurbished tanks per month for another year now, but for all of 2023 Russia only managed to produce 10 T-90M tanks. On the Ukrainian side a lot of Western equipment gets hit by TM-62 mines, but it hardly ever results in personnel losses and most vehicles can be repaired. In addition, 31 M1A1 Abrams tanks are on the way. The only area where Russia can still backfill its losses, is on the personal side. These can be used for defense, but the days of Russia as having an offensive military are over.
Слава Україні!
Niels
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