Ukraine Blog 55 – Dieppe came before D-Day
Dear friends, family and colleagues,
Time
intervals grow longer, I know. However, it doesn't mean that Ukraine’s path to victory
becomes less clear. I spent a lot of time last month surveying the front lines
and the logistical situation on both the Ukrainian and Russian side. After
contemplating for a month, I can say with confidence: the Russians are FUCKED
(no censor here this time). Let’s dive into this.
Just as I
stated in Blog 53 that the Russian offensive already stared, the Ukrainian
counter offensive has already started. There are two main indicators for this.
1. Dieppe style probing raids: So what
does “Dieppe” mean? On the 19th of August of 1942, the Western
allies invaded the French town of Dieppe on the shores of the North Sea. The
raid failed miserably and after one day almost half of the 6000 strong landing
force became prisoners of war of the Nazi’s. However, the point of the raid was
not to capture territory, but to test whether a cross Channel raid was feasible.
The Dieppe raid totally proved to the allied powers that an amphibious raid across
the Channel was possible. Most of the landing force successfully reached the
landing beaches and some of the Churchill tanks even reached urban build-up
areas. In that sense, the raid was a total success and the allies proved that a
successful naval invasion was possible.
The Dieppe raid ultimately resulted in the successful
invasion of Normandy. The invasion to which we owe our freedom. The Ukrainians
for the past couple of weeks have been executing Dieppe style probing attacks. They
have been executing frontal reconnaissance attacks, that were at first sight 100
percent defeated, but I believe their value is immense.
However, multiple Russians sources went in panic
mode with reports that Ukrainian forces were able to deploy right in front of
the Russian trenches could maneuver there without problems
Rest assured that the Ukrainians are doing multiple
probes of enemy fortifications without any successful outcome. However, these raids
will provide the Ukrainian armed forces with invaluable information on whether
or not the Russian defenses are penetrable or not.
2. SAM-hunting. For many weeks right
now the Ukrainian air force has been hunting Russian surface tot air (SAM)
sites. Every day in the Russian losses sheet of the Ukrainian armed forces,
there have been multiple Russian SAM sites on the hit list.
Ukrainian SAM hits have become way more aggressive
over the past couple of days.
I can tell you what’s happening here: the
Ukrainian air forces is clearing air corridors here deep into enemy territory.
This is most likely to clear the path for Bayraktar TB2 drones (we almost
forgot about them) once the counter offensive starts.
As we know by
now, the Russian offensive miserably failed. You know it, Ukraine knows it, the
Russian know it. It might have been lost in the media blur, but over the past couple
of weeks, the Ukrainians have been amassing large amounts of modern Western equipment
in huge numbers in the same way as the Russians have been amassing equipment just
before their disastrous invasion of Feb 24th 2022.
The
Ukrainians are putting everything into place to perform a quick NATO combined arms
style breakthrough just as it happened in Operation Desert Storm against Iraq
in 1991. The Ukrainians are using state of the art updated NATO combined arms
tactics here. The Russians stick to old fashioned Soviet doctrine layered defenses
with so-called cope-Toblerone’s. The Iraqi army used the same tactics in 1991
with disastrous results. The Russians know these tactics and the Ukrainians know
them as well
As much as
a I like to ridicule the Russian defense lines and I have confidence in the Ukrainian
offensive capabilities, there are two components in the Russian defense that
worry me.
1. The TM-62 mine: this is the primary Soviet anti-tank mine.
Without you probably knowing this, this has become
a golden oldie of yours over the past couple of months. This Soviet mine was responsible
for destroying hundreds of Russians vehicles on the Avdiivka and Vuhledar
frontlines over the past couple weeks.
That the Ukrainians have success with this, doesn’t
mean the Russians can’t score a hit with this device. The Russians laid hundreds
of these anti-tank mines in front of their lines. The only way the Ukrainians
will be able to successfully penetrate Russian lines, is when the clear their
advance routes with the earlier discussed MICLIC’s. Why is the TM-62 so
dangerous? It’s purely the fact that once a heavy vehicle touches the mine,
there’s no escape from it. The explosive power of the TM-62 is amazing. To give
an illustration of its explosive power: After the United Stated disposed of
Saddam Hussain, they had to dispose of 600.000 tons of obsolete ammunition of Saddam’s
army. The primary ammunition that the U.S. army corps of engineers used as a
booster to dispose of ammunition like mortar and artillery shells, were TM-62 mines.
If you want to clear TM-62 mines while doing an
armored advance, the MICLIC is the only
tool available. When a TM-62 hits a Challenger or Leopard II, the crew will
most likely survive without serious injuries (as opposed to a hit on a T-72/T-80),
but the vehicle will be lost. This will ultimately result in an unsuccessful
breakthrough an and an unsuccessful deployment of Western assets.
2. If the MICLIC doesn’t do the job, it’s likely
the Ukrainian advancing column will be stuck, while disarming the TM-62 mines.
At this point, they will be at the mercy of Russian Anti-Tank-Guided-Missile teams
(ATGM). I’m totally convinced, the Russian tank and APC/AIFV units are no
longer a threat against soviet equipped Ukrainian army units. Ukrainian T-64
units are superior against Russian T-72 and T-80 units. However, my worry is
with the Russian ATGM units like the Konkurs, Metis and Kornet is that once
Ukrainian Western Leopard/Bradley equipped armored units will become bogged down
by the TM-62 mines, Russian ATGM units will open fire on the advancing Ukrainian
units. I know all the bolstering about the superiority of the Leopard/Challenger
and Abrams tanks in the media, but the Islamic State was able to kill quite a
lot of Abrams tanks with the Konkors missile (title says, RPG7, impact says
Konkurs 😊 )
War in Iraq 2014 RPG 7 and Mine destroy M1 Abrams Tank Abrams M1 vs RPG 7 - YouTube
I have the
full confidence in the Ukrainian war planners: they know Soviet defensive
planning and rest assured that they have been training extensively on how to by-pass
Russian defenses. However, the combination of the TM-62 and Russian ATGM team
is cause for concern. As long as the Ukrainians manage to perform a quick breakthrough
with the help of MICLIC’s and perform a speedy advance, there’s no cause for
concern. However, as soon as the TM-62 mines will slow them down, it’s quite possible
we will see a Kherson scenario, where Ukrainian troops will only be able to advance
at the cost of heavy losses.
I’m not
worried about the Ukrainians being able to penetrate the Russian lines. I
studied the lines over the past couple of months and I KNOW (I know it’s a strong
statement) where the Ukrainians will break through. This will be the first time
I will adhere to the OPSEC guidelines of the Ukrainian military and will NOT
disclose where the breakthrough will take place. The Ukrainians right now have
an excellent battlefield awareness. The only factor that’s holding them back is
the weather. After the thaw initially set in, the frontlines were again packed
in a thick layer of snow. This snow has started to melt once more. This means we
won’t see a massive Ukrainian advance for at least three weeks, because it’s simply
impossible to advance for armored vehicles.
When looking
the urban battlefield of Bakhmut of the past couple of weeks, I know the
playbook of the Ukrainians: No Challengers, Leopards and Bradley’s are there. Ukrainian
second and third line troops equipped
with old Soviet equipment are fighting against
first line Russian troops. While the Russians bring their elite troops to the
front, the Ukrainians are quietly preparing three army corps equipped with the
most modern NATO equipment. The Orcs have no clue what’s coming to them. In
three to four weeks you will all know.
Слава Україні!
Niels
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