Ukraine Blog 53 – Entering the Grey Zone
Dear friends, family and colleagues,
I know it
has been quiet for a while. In part this had to do with the new job, in part it
had to do with the insanely dynamic battlefront in Ukraine. Besides all the
developments like mobilization, Western arms deliveries, there is also an insane
amount of disinformation. Not only from the Russian side, but the Ukrainians
put a fair share of disinformation in the net as well. This means that the fog
of war, or the Grey zone as both parties call it, is very thick. Thicker than
even the first days of the war. I had to go through a lot of information to create
a picture what’s going on and what we can expect. Let’s dive into it:
First of
all: the feared Russian offensive that everyone talks about: I’m one hundred
percent convinced that it already. I think it started at the end of January.
Why is everyone waiting? Well, people still have the memories of the first days
of the war, when there was still a relatively capable Russian army, where large
armored formations, supported by VDV airborne troops where approaching Kyiv in
a large combined arms operation. The hard fact is: Russia is no longer capable
of conducting such operations. They were not able to complete it successfully last
year, which means right now it’s not even possible for them to conduct the start
maneuvers for such an operation. Where Russian forces until last year had some
form of air support, the Russian air force right now is almost completely
absent, except for some close-air-support SU-25 strikes directly on the frontline.
Large sections of Ukraine’s airspace are now covered with modern Western air defense
weapons, including the German IRIS-T with a one hundred percent kill rate. The
biggest confusion is that when Western news reports speak about “Russian elite”
formations like the 155th naval infantry brigade or the VDV: these
formations used to be manned by more elite Russian troops, but due to high
losses, the Russians started to man them with mobilized “mobiks.” The first
evidence came from the prisoners of war that the Ukrainians took after the
failed Vuhledar offensive in the south.
This used
to be composed of the best of the best and it’s now comprised of malnourished mobiks
with little or no training.
However,
there’re still capable Russian troops. The only capable formation left, is the
VDV’s 76th Guards Air Assault Division. They held the line in Kherson and were
responsible for the Soledar breakthrough. The big mistake that Russia makes
right now, is that they use them on the Luhansk front to force a similar breakthrough
near Kreminna. The grey zone around Kreminna is the biggest of all the grey zones.
There are Ukrainians source that say that the Ukrainians army is fighting in
the suburbs of Kreminna and there are Russian sources that claim the Russian’s
pushed 15 kilometers west. Only yesterday I found the first indications that it’s
likely not going well for the VDV boys. Russian channels confirmed an unusual
high amount of death VDV soldiers including some very senior officers
This is a
very stupid move that will cost the Russians dearly. They should withdraw the
76th to Russia immediately. In case they want to have some chance to
decently train troops, these are the guys to do it. It begs the question: why is
Russia sending everything into the meat grinder regardless whether they are
mobiks or elite units. The answer is simple: Russia for now has limited initiative,
but that window is closing rapidly with Western arms deliveries. Will they invade
from Belarus or the north east. Rumors are yes, but I saw the Russian troops in
Belarus declining from 11.000 to around 5.000 and all major troop movements
seem to take place in Luhansk oblast and around Mariupol.
So let’s
take a look a the Ukrainians side. Everyone is worried that “the tanks” will
not arrive in time. The thing that shouldn’t be on everyone’s mind are the
tanks. What should be are the M2 Bradleys. Let me explain why:
I’m
convinced the Western generals advised the Ukrainian army to put any planned
offensive on hold. The Russians for now will keep on coming and Putin will get away
with his piecemeal mobilization efforts. Not even 200.000 death Russians will
move the Russian public. I put my bet on half a million now (remember, I was wrong
with the 30.000 figure which was based on pure rational force logic). We will
need a whole separate blog on why Russians are so apathetic, but this has a
very good reason. The hard truth is, although fighting a war with badly trained
Mobiks: if you throw sufficient mud (or meat) against the wall, eventually
something will stick. If there’s one weapon (and there’s only one) that was designed
for killing large amounts of Russians and at the same time having a superior
anti-armor capability, it’s the M2 Bradley. It has a very powerful long range 25
mm chain gun and on top of that very powerful retractable launchers for TOW
anti-tank missiles. It’s highly maneuverable and can deal with all kinds of
terrain. While it was designed to kill Russians in the Fulda gap in Germany, it
was equally good in the deserts of Kuwait. The Bradley could really deal well
with the desert sands, where the M1 Abrams had severe problems.
Everyone talks
about the Abrams arriving by the end of the year and the Leopards and Challenger
II’s at the March end earliest: well, the Bradley’s are already on the way.
Ukrainian
troops also started training on the Bradley very early in January
It’s a very
capable vehicle that I believe the Ukrainians will master in no time. I think we
will start to see Bradley’s on the battlefield in a couple of weeks from now. This
makes me confident to make a couple of predictions. We can divide the future of
the war in roughly three phases
1. Defense against the human waves:
Make no mistake. The next two months will be the hardest of the war. The
Russians will likely breakthrough in a couple of points and Ukraine will likely
have to withdraw from Bakhmut and most likely in the North of Luhansk oblast as
well. A thing overlooked in the media: since the Western arms deliveries were
announced, the Ukrainians pulled some of their best units from the frontline:
they will have to be trained on the new arms. Most of the defense in the Donbass
is now being performed by Territorial defense forces supported by some Ukrainian
airborne forces. Like the battle for Severodonetsk, Ukraine is trading space
for resources here. This is ok as long as it translates in major gains elsewhere
(Kharkiv offensive, Kherson). Once the Russians breakthrough, they will have to
deal with longer Ground lines of communications and then their logistical
challenges (which are far worse than last year) will become evident. This is the
moment the Ukrainians will kill tens of thousands of Russians with the help of
the Bradley’s. By that time, the Challenger II’s likely also have arrived. They
will function as an operational reserve in case support is really needed.
2. I do expect the Russians to advance
maybe for 30 kilometers in some places, but the Bradley’s will likely keep them
pinned down for a long time. By that time, the heavy tanks have started to
arrive. I still think the Ukrainians will go for Zaporizhzhia, simply for the
fact that it will severe all major Russian ground lines of communication. Just I
think the Russians already started their offensive, I think the Ukrainians already
started preparations for the Zaporizhzhia offensive. Over the past two weeks we
have seen a large amount of Ukrainian high precision Excalibur strikes on very noticeable:
(very rare) air defense targets. We saw something similar just before the start
of the Kherson and Kharkiv offensives.
The logistics in the south are very bad for the Russians and they suffer the highest losses in this area around Vuhledar
3. Ukraine will get the occupied parts
of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia back. Either via force or Russia will leave them voluntarily
as part of a “good will gesture.” Kremlin channels and Russian propaganda
already speaking about a full conquest of Luhansk and Donetsk oblast after which
Russia will leave Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Presumably to make a good offer in
negotiations. However, I think Russia will simply leave them because of the
precarious logistical situation. This will likely be the state where Putin
says: take it or I will press further. Question is: will this be enough for
Ukraine. I don’t think it will be. As I stated before: Ukraine has three
strategic goals for the future defense of its territory and one of them has to
be fulfilled at all costs: 1. the reconquest of Crimea, 2. the elimination of
Transnistria and 3. removal of Lukashenka. The conquest of Crimea is an
absolute must. It will eliminate the Russian Black Sea Fleet and remove one of
the three fronts from which Russia can attack. All signs are on green that the
Americans will give Ukraine everything they need to get Crimea back. The most
notable weapon the Americans will provide is the Ground-Launched-Small-Diameter-Bomb
or GLSDB.
This is a weapon that can be launched from an
M142 HIMARS or M270 MLRS system. It has double the range of normal M30/M31
rockets, but about half the range of the much discussed ATACMS longer range
missile. As opposed to the high-tech ATACMS, the GLSDB is a Vietnam war-era
dumb aircraft bomb, with rocket assistance and a small GPS kit for guidance. In
other words, an unexploded one falling into Russian hands, is not such a big
deal. However, this weapons will absolutely annihilate the already precarious
logistical situation for the Russians in Crimea.
Although I’m
pretty sure Ukraine will get Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Crimea back, I’m not so
sure about Donetsk and Luhansk. The problem is Russia’s big air defense layer
there. It’s impossible there for Ukraine to launch a large offensive there
without proper air cover. This will only be possible in case the West supplies
Ukraine with modern fighter jets. Thanks to the Netherlands, this option is
seriously on the table. The Netherlands, like most long standing NATO nations,
like Denmark, Belgium and Norway are in full speed replacing their F-16 fleet
with F-35’s. Most transitions will be completed next year, which means there
will be a large amounts of F-16’s available for Ukraine. However, I do see it
as a serious option that by that time many of the West will have become tired
and they will give Putin Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts as a much discussed off ramp.
where Putin will build the new iron curtain. Although it will be great
injustice, it will mean that Russia will become responsible for the most
destroyed part of Ukraine that has natural resources that no one in the West
wants anymore (coal). All depends on how many Russians the Bradley’s can kill
and the ease of which Ukraine can take back Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Crimea.
If the costs are light there, the Ukrainians will try for sure. However, let’s
not forget when Russia is losing 20.000 soldiers per month as they do right
now, even with a KIA ratio of 1 to 6,5 in favor of the Ukrainians, it still
means that Ukraine is losing thousands of soldiers per month, more than the United
States lost in 20 years of Afghanistan…
Слава Україні!
Niels
Comments
Post a Comment