Ukraine Blog 52 – Soledar and Surovikin, nothing is what it seems
Dear friends, family and colleagues,
Especially
regarding the previous update, I was hoping to give you some more positive news
in this update. However, the opposite is true. North of the infamous town of
Bakhmut, there’s a town called Soledar and Russia is causing severe problems.
Problems that could end up in a severe problem for Ukraine and the West, but
not for obvious reasons. Or…? Will it? Let’s dive into this.
What
I’m going to outline here, is based on persistent rumors and not the usual
evidence I provide via Twitter feeds, but we know with quite a high degree of
certainty that the following happened
1. During a rotation of an Ukrainian
brigade in Soledar, the Russians found a weak spot in the Ukrainian line of
defense and pressed an assault. At least they managed to perform a partial breakthrough
of Ukrainian lines.
2. Where it was expected that frozen
ground would give Ukraine the advantage in a winter ground assault, it was
actually the Russians who made the first move.
3. The Russian assault force is not
composed of Wagner prisoner cannon fodder or other Mobiks, but seasoned VDV
paratroopers and regular Wager troops (the ones that are usually sent to
Africa). The VDV guys are most likely the guys that were withdrawn from the
right bank of the Dnipro river in Kherson. Given that no one knew where they
were in the meantime, it’s safe to assume that the Russian force commander
Sergey Surovikin gave them some time to rest and reconstitute.
In
case the town of Soledar falls, things will be a hell of a lot more difficult
for Ukraine.
1. The first reason is obvious: the
Ukrainian supply line from Siversk in the north will be cut. It will be way
more difficult for Ukraine to supply Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut itself.
Bakhmut will become surrounded from the East, South and North. Ukraine can
still inflict a lot of Russian casualties in urban combat, but it would make
more sense to pull out of Bakhmut to save manpower.
2. Soledar is home to one of the
largest salt mines around. The complex has 200 kilometers of tunnels. Any
control would give the Russians easier opportunities to infiltrate Ukraine
behind the lines.
3. The third reason is not so obvious,
but it will make sure that the war will take much longer than anyone
anticipated. A fall of both Soledar and Bakhmut at the same time would by no
means mean that Ukraine will be in great danger. That danger mostly evaporated
when Ukraine took back Kupyansk and Izyum. In case both cities would still be
under Russian control, Ukraine would be in big trouble. The towns of Slovyansk
and Krematorsk would be in real danger from North, East and South. This is no
longer the case and in a scenario when Bakhmut and Soledar fall, Ukraine has
plenty of defense lines to fall back to. Why I think a fall of Soledar is so
dangerous for Ukraine has all to do with the personality of Vladimir
Vladimirovich Putin. The last Russian tactical victory in Ukraine is from the
3rd of July 2022 when Russia captured Lysychansk. Since then, Russia only lost
territory and has been on the defensive. Despite mobilizing 300.000 men, Russia
still lost Lyman and Kherson. A capture of Soledar would provide Putin with the
ultimate !Empirical! evidence that mobilizing thousands of soldiers and
throwing them like meat to the wall, will result in battlefield gains.
I
said it before: Putin is a man that gives very little about a human life. This
man is easily capable of throwing millions of his fellow Russians in the meat
grinder all for the sake of cementing his legacy. Putin thinks along the same
lines as the Great Patriotic War (the Second World War for us). It doesn’t
matter how many men he has to sacrifice, as long as this results in at least a
relative gain, it’s worth the effort.
A
victory in Soledar (and Bakhmut) will be the perfect business case for Putin
for additional mobilization and the implementation of total war. For the
unfamiliar among us: Total war is not a world war (although I think as I stated
before that we are in the Third World War). Total war constitutes the
following:
1. Total purposes (aim of continuous
growth of the power of the parties involved and hegemonic visions);
2. Total methods (similar and common
methodologies among countries that intend to increase their spheres of
influence);
3. Total mobilization (inclusion in the
conflict of parties not traditionally involved, such as women and children or
individuals who are not part of the armed bodies);
4. Total control (multisectoral
centralization of the powers and orchestration of the activities of the
countries in a small circle of dictators or oligarchs, with cross functional
control over education and culture, media / propaganda, economic and political
activities).
I
will discuss a couple of less obvious signs for total war until we go to the
most obvious sign:
1. Russia has a traditional new year’s
show. In all the previous years, the content was like all the new years shows
in all other countries of the world: harmless bullshit entertainment. However,
this year, the show was fully in the light of the military:
Новогодний Голубой огонек 2023 - YouTube
In the light of this, Putin’s new
year’s speech was held in front of a couple of people in military uniform (most
of them are actor’s actually).
Make no mistake about the meaning
here: The message is: “Russians, you’re all part of this. YOU chose this and
everyone is going down with it
To give you a very weird impression
of the same show in 2013:
Первый Новогодний вечер 2013г - М.Галкин - YouTube
Yes, that’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy co-hosting the Russian new year’s show.
In the audience are all the current Russian propaganda big shots, including Vladimir
Solovyov.
2. Russia has created on giant database
connecting data from all major government agencies. It should be operational by
April 1st 2023, but it’s allegedly already operational.
3. Russia has banned eight million
people with debts from leaving Russia. After the prisoners (of which Russia is
running out), they are the next group that can pay their loyalty to Russia in a
different way. Ironically this is how Putin sees the deployment of prisoners
and people in debt. In this famous speech just after the launch of the
invasion, Putin goes for the first time full fascist and talks about the
cleansing of society from traitors.
Putin Says He'll Get Rid of 'Scum and Traitors' - YouTube
The current actions fit perfectly in this. For Putin, gaining land in Ukraine
with the help of prisoners, people in debt and other outcasts of society, is a
win-win situation. Russia loses its worst people while Ukraine loses its best.
What Putin doesn’t realize is, that he needs all segments of society to keep
Russia’s disastrous demographics afloat.
4. However, the clearest and most
obvious signs that total war is coming, are the massive weapons deliveries that
the West announced over the past couple of weeks. M2/M3 Bradley Fighting
Vehicles, AMX-10RC reconnaissance wheeled tanks and additional Patriot
batteries. I believe we’re very close to the delivery of German Leopard II
tanks and British Challenger II tanks. It’s just that German Chancellor Scholz
shows his last expressions of the weakness of a man he is. All these weapons
(especially the Bradley’s will kill many Russians) were a taboo until a few
weeks ago. I believe the West has read the signals and is convinced total war
is around the corner.
In
addition, I fear that Russia will after all again try an invasion from Belarus.
For weeks I was skeptical, because I only saw trucks and armored personal
carriers arriving on the trains in Belarus. Such equipment usually signals that
soldiers only go there for training. However, in the past two weeks, massive
trainloads of 2S19 Msta Howitzers, BM-21 MLRS systems and tanks have arrived.
Yesterday’s shipment.
I had a
look at all the equipment on the trains. Almost all of it is from the ‘60’s and
‘70’s. Mobilized personal will have to operate these and as opposed to February
2022, no airborne VDV or air force support will be available. In addition, back
then the road to Kyiv was open. This time Ukraine has prepared very elaborate
defenses and has put NATO trained troops in position. Any push from Belarus
will go disastrous for Russia and mark my words: this time Ukrainian troops
will not stop at the border.
…And this
is where I wanted to leave today’s blog two days ago. And then this news
happened:
Putin
replaced really the only competent person he put forward during the entirety of
the war. Sure, Surovikin is brutal and a war criminal, but absolutely a
competent soldier and commander who until now has done everything right with
the limited resources Russia has available. What’s even more interesting is
that Putin replaces him with one of the most incompetent senior officers Russia
has, Valery Gerasimov, a man responsible for most of Russia’s operational battlefield
failures. And a couple of things fall into place here looking at the past
couple of days:
1. The very aggressive push by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s
Wagner group and Prigozhin’s emphasis that only Wagner troops participated in
the assault on Soledar (despite a major component of the assault force is
composed of army VDV troops)
2. The dismissal of the only competent
commander, Surovikin
3. Putting back in Gerasimov and
Russia’s defense minister Sergey Shoigu back in the spotlight.
For me it
means that the power struggle is on and out in the open. I strongly believe
that when looking at Putin’s character, he is of the opinion that both Prigozhin
and Surovikin become too powerful or too popular. For a dictator like Putin
(and the likes of Saddam Hussain, Stalin and Hitler), loyalty and committing to
loyalty is more important than competence. This was the chance for Gerasimov
and Shoigu to get revenge and get back on the stage. This is good news for
Ukraine and the West. When looking at history. Fighting an offensive war while
your senior commanders are in a power struggle always results in defeat.
After
Surivikin in charge and Wagner’s Soledar success I became worried for a bit,
but it seems that Putin’s pride and incompetence will again help here.
Слава Україні!
Niels
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