Ukraine Blog 27 - The Big Guns Have Arrived
Dear friends, family and colleagues,
For one
week we have seen Russian grinding its last operational reserves against a
couple of non-strategic villages in the northern part of the Donbass. In the
process they have lost tens of thousands of soldiers in dead and wounded. They
managed to takes some towns, but as expected the Russians ultimately got stuck.
Now the Ukrainians are launching big counter offensives northeast of Kharkiv
and around Izium. Around Izium (the most important of the two fronts) the
Ukrainians maintain a strict regime of Operations Security (OPSEC) for obvious
reasons, but around Kharkiv the Ukrainians are making huge gains. The city is
now outside the range of Russian artillery.
That doesn’t
mean that the artillery is out. This battle will be the battle of all battles
when it comes to long range artillery and it’s the Ukrainians who now have the
advantage. Something caught my eye a couple of days ago. In their daily Russian
losses publication, the Ukrainians consistently mentioned the destroyed around
5 Russian artillery pieces per day. For over a couple of days now, this hoovers
around 20 per day.
As I said
before: I have great trust in the Ukrainian loss reports. This particular increase
tells me that equipment like the Switchblade loitering munitions and/or Western
long range artillery definitely has arrived on the battlefield. Ukraine finally
being able to decisively defeat Russian long range artillery will be the final
nail in the coffin for Russia’s operation in Ukraine. Just as I was giving this
a thought today, the first footage came in of Western artillery and Switchblade
drones in action.
If you thought
images like below of column after column of burning Russian vehicles and personnel
already was bad: Rest assured, the coming weeks will be even more devastating for
the Russians.
(1) C4H10FO2P on Twitter: "https://t.co/3TYL5lDs2w" / Twitter
An item
that doesn’t seem to increase on the Ukrainian kill list, is the amount of Russian
helicopters. It’s steady on 155 downed helicopters for over a week now. And I
think there’s a very good reason for that. Western MANPADS, like Stingers and
Starstreak’s are now available in every Ukrainian front line unit and they wreaked
havoc among the Russian air force. The situation is now so bad that the
Russians no longer fly over the battlefield in their helicopters. Instead they
stay above friendly lines, they lift up their noses and fire their rockets blindly
in the direction of enemy lines like some kind of airborne MLRS system. Just to
be clear: this doesn’t serve any military purpose and simply is a waste of ammunition.
I really
have no clue why they are doing this, but my suspicion is that the pilots are
doing that, just to show their superiors back on the base that they used all
their rockets. Can’t come up with another reason to be honest.
Just as
with draining the Russian army in Donbass and the South, the Ukrainians have
proven to be masters in tactics and skills in other areas. It didn’t escape my
attention that the Ukrainians over the past couple of days have been heavily
targeting the Russians on Snake island (yeah, that island that became famous
for “F*ck you Russian warship”). The Ukrainians struck a wide variety of targets
there including two Raptor class patrol boats.
“Woofers,” one
of the best OSINT guys out there that I have been following for years (his
coverage of the SDF campaign against ISIS in Deirezzor, Syria, is famous) posted
this on the 4th of May
(1) Woofers on Twitter: "🤔" / Twitter
Rarely has
a tweet been so prophetic as this one. Near Snake Island the Ukrainians today
struck a big naval target, most likely the Admiral Grigorovich class frigate “Admiral
Makarov.” This is not an old 1970’s warship like the Moskva cruiser, but one of
Russia’s most modern frigates. It was only commissioned in 2017. It’s not confirmed
yet, it’s indeed the Admiral Makarov. But it’s absolutely certain the
Ukrainians hit something big. Footage below is from a Bayraktar drone. It clearly
shows a frigate on fire with its radar still rotating. The fire on the ship is
on a section where the Vertical Launch Systems (VLS) is located. This means
that the likelihood of a catastrophic ammunition detonation is great.
The sinking
of the Moskva was also a big leap forward for me in terms of experience. When there’s
a claim of a navy warship being hit, you need to look out for the following
things
1. Chatter on communications: check for
distress calls
2. Observe flight radar for an increase
in surveillance flights (and there were plenty of them today)
In case
neither of the two points above occur, it’s very likely nothing happened. (sorry to burst your bubble, but not all
Ukrainian claims of ship hits turned out to be true)
In case
Woofers and myself can come up with this scenario, then why are the Russian still
taking the bait? It’s absolutely clear to me right now that the incompetence of
the Russian military knows no limits. It was rumored that the Admiral Makarov
was promoted to Black Sea flagship after the sinking of the Moskva. If that’s
indeed the case and she was sunk, it means that Russia will be the only nation
in history that lost two flagships against a country with no functioning navy.
And we haven’t
seen the last of Ukrainian tactics. Like I said: the Ukrainians are making big
gains around Kharkiv and all signals are on green for a push towards either Kupiansk
or Belgorod. Like I discussed in my previous blog, Belgorod would be good to
move the war to Russia. A move on Kupiansk would make sure that Russian supply
lines towards Izium are completely cut off and the Ukrainians can encircle a
large chunk of the demoralized Russian army deep in Ukraine. Plenty of options
for Ukraine and time is on their side.
In the
meantime in Russia, the amount of sabotage actions is exploding against a wide
range of targets: powerplants, oil storages, factories and weapons labs and
production facilities. There are a lot of questions on who’s responsible for
this. Ukrainian special forces or Russian deserters?
I think it’s
a combination of both. Around Belgorod I think Ukrainian drones and sabotage
units are for the biggest part responsible. However I think it’s unlikely that
Ukrainian special forces travel to Sakhalin to destroy a power plant there. I
think dissatisfaction over the war is bigger than the Russian propaganda displays.
At this points I suspect there are even sections in the military that are
executing sabotage actions. Among the targets was a highly secured missile
research facility. You just don’t walk in as a saboteur or Ukrainian special
forces guy. In case those targets are hit, rest assured it’s an inside job.
Then of
course there’s one other question: What happens on the 9th of may?
There are a lot of rumors about a general mobilization. I don’t think that’s
likely. Putin knows he will lose everything when he chooses to do that. In addition:
for a mobilization he doesn’t need to wait till the 9th of May. And
I can tell you: Russia is in real need of a mobilization now. I think it’s very
likely some partial covert mobilization will be carried out. In addition Putin
will declare victory over the Crimea corridor and the parts of Donbass he holds.
He did that before in Syria: declaring victory and the bombing, well, it continues
to this day. To be honest. That would be the smartest thing to do for him.
Consolidating the territory he gained and continue his aggression. The only thing
he forgets: Ukraine is not Syria. He will have to maintain a war of attrition
against an enemy with superior and highly accurate long range artillery.
Доброго вечора, ми з України! (look up
the song please)
Niels
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