SpectralTransition - Views and Updates on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Dear friends, family and colleagues, The initial Russian punch for the towns of Lyman, Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk seems to be over. The Russians finally discovered how they can win battles. In short: heavy armored assaults in a concentrated area, supported by massive heavy artillery fire. My prediction from a couple of weeks ago seems valid. We are reaching artillery volleys we haven’t seen since the Second World War and I suspect some of them are heavier. Entire areas in the Donbass area have now been transformed in a cratered moon landscapes that will be contaminated by heavy unexploded ordnance (UXO) pollution for many years to come. However, the Russians are far certain from victory in the Donbass. It actually becomes clear that the Russians still didn’t managed to solve their logistic problems. The Ukrainians also are fighting against the time. What’s happening right now is a strategic chess game that we haven’t seen since the Second World War. I will explain why. What we ...

Dear friends, family and colleagues, Today was a very bad day for the Ukrainian defenders. Russia is pushing extremely hard to put Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk under a full siege. And the Russians are definitely advancing. Today and yesterday they took many towns in the Donbass area. All the way it’s Russia’s artillery that seems to tip the edge. South of Popasna, Russia took Svitlodars'k and Myronivs'kyi. Both towns were for years heavily contested. On the northern axis, Russia is pressing hard to take the town of Lyman. Ukraine is still holding a large part of the town, but Russian artillery is absolutely obliterating the town. Russia’s famous TOS-1A thermobaric rocket launchers were again put to use, but this time in front of the camera against a dense population center. You know that I’m very careful with proclaiming everything a war crime, but this is together with the Bucha atrocities one of the few instances where there’s clearly a war crime happening in front of t...

Dear friends, family and colleagues, I received a lot of questions on where we are currently with the war. All eyes are currently on the last part of Luhansk oblast not occupied by the Russians, Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. Truth is that it doesn’t look good for Ukraine there. Not that the situation changed to any point that it will lead to a Russian victory in the war, but be prepared for my most negative update since this all started. Ever since the Russians withdrews from Chernihiv, Sumy and Kyiv oblasts, the focus has been on the development of a “cauldron” where the Russian army would encircle Ukraine’s Joint group of Forces. The encirclement would start from Izium in the north and Huliaipole in the south. Due to a ferocious Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv oblast and relentless Ukrainian artillery strikes in Izium, the Russians have now abandoned this plan. They now further downscaled their objective by encircling only Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. The Russian bre...

Dear friends, family and colleagues, Updates become less frequent. That’s because we are seeing the Russian offensive reaching its climax. But that doesn’t mean there’s not a lot to talk about. The Ukrainians have decisively defeated the Russians north of Kharkiv. Bringing the Russian supply line at Vovchansk well within range of their new M777 American supplied howitzers. This already put Russia in the position that it absolutely has to make decisions right now on how to proceed with the war. And although I see a hint towards which decision they are going to make, no clear path forward has been presented yet. The offensive north of Kharkiv has forced the Russians to bring Battalion Tactical Groups (BTG’s) from the Donbass, to the Kharkiv and Belgorod regions. Ukrainian artillery has proven to be devastating in the areas of Kharkiv and Izium. Those two reasons are now in the same phase as just before the Russian collapse in Kyiv. I expect the Russians to abandon the Kharkiv and Izi...

Dear family, friends and colleagues, My Whatsapp and Teams at work have exploded with request for my opinion with regards to Putin’s speech. To jump straight into it: I saw a confused, weak boomer that’s not sure of the action that needs to be taken. As I predicted: no word about a (partial) mobilization. However, I did expect at least a proclamation of a partial victory, but not even that. The relevant thing Putin told in his ten minute speech, is that Russia’s current war is a sacred as the Great Patriotic War of the Soviet-Union. For the people in the West: it’s hard to comprehend the importance of the Great Patriotic War. Yes, we also fought Nazi’s, but for the Soviet-Union, it was really the single most important event that shaped the Soviet-Union as a nation, made it went through dark depths and its victory made it reach great heights. The Eastern Front in the Great Patriotic War is still by far the single most intense war ever fought on the planet. 27 million Soviet (so Russ...

Dear friends, family and colleagues, For one week we have seen Russian grinding its last operational reserves against a couple of non-strategic villages in the northern part of the Donbass. In the process they have lost tens of thousands of soldiers in dead and wounded. They managed to takes some towns, but as expected the Russians ultimately got stuck. Now the Ukrainians are launching big counter offensives northeast of Kharkiv and around Izium. Around Izium (the most important of the two fronts) the Ukrainians maintain a strict regime of Operations Security (OPSEC) for obvious reasons, but around Kharkiv the Ukrainians are making huge gains. The city is now outside the range of Russian artillery. That doesn’t mean that the artillery is out. This battle will be the battle of all battles when it comes to long range artillery and it’s the Ukrainians who now have the advantage. Something caught my eye a couple of days ago. In their daily Russian losses publication, the Ukrainians con...

Dear friends, family and colleagues, I stated in “Ukraine Blog 25” the following: “Although still unlikely, I think it’s plausible that we are going to see some action in Moldova, but not against Ukraine, but against the country of Moldova.” I now come back from this statement. A couple of hours after I posted Blog 25, the following Tweet appeared. Gregor Martin on Twitter: "And now this: Wargonzo seems to be in Tiraspol already. He claims "the air strip near Tiraspol was hit by 60-mm mines dropped from drones..." https://t.co/yCwSe8rVCf" / Twitter This rang all alarm bells inside me and I now know for sure trouble is definitely on the horizon in Moldova. So why would I be disturbed by the presence of this individual “Wargonzo?” Well, there is a general rule for all conflicts that Russia is involved in: As soon as the Youtube channels of Wargonzo and Analytical Network News Agency (ANNA) appear in a particular place, rest assured that the Kremlin will start so...