Ukraine Blog 21 - The Donbass Front and the Tiktok Army
Dear friends, family and colleagues,
We are approaching
the end of the sixth week of Russia’s invasion and all signs point towards a grand
battle of Donbass that’s about to begin. Russia is literally moving every piece
of equipment that’s still functioning and every soldier that’s able to pick up
a rifle towards the front in Donbass.
Like I said
before, it’s all or nothing now for Putin. He abandoned two of the four fronts
and there needs to be a victory before Victory Day on the 9th of
May. And this is where the problems only become bigger.
1. Most people who are not familiar
with military deployments need to understand the following:
a. Russia is now re-positioning troops
from the former Northern and North-Eastern fronts to the Donbass. This doesn’t
mean you can deploy them immediately.
b. Those forces have suffered heavy casualties
and equipment losses. The first thing that needs to happen, is that the remnants
of these forces need to be reconstituted in new deployable units. They need to be
re-armed and re-equipped. This is only happening on a very limited scale.
2. The forces that were sent to Kyiv were
promised a warm welcome, flowers and Kyiv girls and now they will be send to a
very barren territory composed of coal mines, where there already was a war for
many years, inhabited by pensioners in the Donbass. I don’t think the mood
among them will be very good.
3. Russia has really pushed hard on the
Izium front and today they were advancing south, trying to make the push to encircle
the Joint Group of Forces in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Truth is that they are
pushing forward, but they have to deploy an insane amount of troops and
equipment to achieve that. They really have to scrape the bottom of the
cauldron right now to get equipment. The video below says it all. The paint on
the vehicles they are bringing in, is from the time of the first Chechen war.
They are really emptying the storage areas right now
The danger of deploying
this old equipment is, that no maintenance has been performed on it for many
years. Shooting an artillery round with this type of old crap can be very
lethal for the crew itself. I think we will see a dramatic increase in
operational fire accidents. But trust me: the Russians will throw an insane
amount of equipment against the Donbass. We will likely see fire volumes
comparable to the battle Berlin. Artillery, though old, can still be very lethal.
4. One would think that the Russians
learned from their experiences around Kyiv. That they would start maneuvering off
the roads in a coordinated manner in the surrounding side roads. This army is
so stuck in the Soviet mindset, that they will probably never change. I was
watching the advance south of Izium in amaze. The Russian tanks still advance
on the main roads, only to be picked off by guys with Javelins or NLAW’s.
Compare this how the
Ukrainians perform a tactical mobile maneuver:
And this is where I
started to notice a change in general on the Ukrainian side. The Ukrainians
move away from defense with NLAW’s, Javelins and Stingers to old fashioned
mechanized warfare in fields to conquer territory:
The main differences compared to the
Russians is, that the Ukrainians operate in closely coordinated units and cover
their backs. It’s very well visible that they were trained by American mechanized
cavalry regiments. And this is the thing: If the Russians don’t change their
tactics, their efforts in the East will be just as disastrous as in the North
and North-East
What makes
things especially difficult for the Russian is that Mariupol is holding out.
And it’s still standing strong. Yesterday there was this footage of 267 marines
that supposedly surrendered in Mariupol. This would be a major thing, since it
constitutes a major surrender.
However, besides
the Ukrainian marines denying it, I have many other reasons to believe this
footage is fake.
1. It was posted on Russian Telegram
channels only (that’s usually a very good indication that it’s fake)
2. Only the first guy wears the distinctive
blue armband (those to identify the Ukrainians on the battlefield). Most other
soldiers don’t wear armbands at all and throughout the video you will notice
some red armbands. These are mostly associated with DNR and LNR soldiers fighting
for Russia.
3. The uniform could be Ukrainian, but definitely
doesn’t match with the uniform of the Ukrainian marine corps.
4. The men in the video look clean and
shaved. I definitely wouldn’t expect that from a city that’s bombarded in a World
War II style with close quarter combat.
5. Follow up footage was posted by
Chechen soldiers under command of Ramzan Kadyrov. They are known for staging
great videos to impress their supporters.
And we definitely
need to talk about the Chechens. In the run-up to this war, I was also anticipating
great battlefield actions from these units. I actually considered them more disciplined
and capable than regular Russian soldiers. After six weeks of Special Military
Operation war it can be safely said that the only thing Kadyrov’s army is
good at, is window dressing. They are now already called the Tiktok army. Apparently
they perform very poorly in battle, but they shine on Tiktok. Here are some of
the highlights:
1. Kadyrovky shooting at windows:
2. Kadyrovsky shooting at traffic
lights
3. Kadyrovsky shooting without aiming
4. Kadyrovsky versus “building”
5. Kadyrovsky showing new toys to the
boss (who staying in Grozny during the whole war by the way)
Here they
are actually fighting running for cover
This of
course would have all been very funny, if it was not for the extreme brutality
of these guys. Slowly more and more horrifying images come out of Bucha, Vorzel
and Hostomel that very clearly show a systematic pattern of war crimes. I expect
that the Chechens are responsible for the worst war crimes. They have very
limited fighting skills, but once the battles are over they shine in the worst
way.
And that is
what it has come to unfortunately. Every year on the 5th of May we
say in the Netherlands: “Never again.” And yet we let it happen again. Rest
assured that Bucha is only the tip of the iceberg of these atrocities. One can
only imagine what happened in the north-east and in the south. And yet, we
still keep consuming Russian gas. The Germans are saying: “we are not yet ready
for it,” the Bulgarians are willing to pay in Rubbles. And this is our problem.
We are addicted to Russian gas. And I’m pretty sure our governments don’t make
the choice for us. They are junkies that can’t be helped anymore. And then it
comes down to us. What are we willing to sacrifice for the Ukrainian people?
Fellow citizens of the West: are you
1. willing to spend the winter without heating
under a blanket on the couch?
2. willing to spend at least two more years
working from home to reduce our energy consumption?
3. willing to park your car at home on
Sundays and go out with your family on foot and on bicycle?
The
Ukrainian people are giving everything for you, including their lives. This is
the least you can do to help them. I’m gonna be very open about this. With the
current knowledge: when you use Russian gas, you’re drinking Ukrainian blood… literally.
When we stick to the three points I mentioned, we should be able to reduce gas consumption
by 50 percent. 40 percent from European gas comes from Russia. We can beat
them! Think about it!
Best regards and "Slava Ukraini!"
Niels
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