SpectralTransition - Views and Updates on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Dear friends, family and colleagues, It has been a while since the last update. This is because the Ukrainian meatgrinder worked overtime and as a result the frontline changes have been minimal. Russia has captured some villages around Kreminna and Izium, but against insane battlefield casualties. We are talking about 300 to 400 KIA per day. For comparison: the Americans in the worst period of Operation Iraqi Freedom, suffered 150 KIA per MONTH! Russian losses are insanely high and totally unsustainable. The Ukrainians now have the opportunity to perform very good defense in depth. The Ukrainians are in complete control of the situation right now and are just playing with the Russian columns. In the latest sign of desperation, Putin sent Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov to Izium to personally oversee the battle. This not only means that the new central commander Aleksandr Dvornikov has been bypassed, rest assured, he will be high on the target list of the Bayraktars. In the meantime...

Dear friends, family and colleagues, We have arrived at a point that I can say with confidence that the war will result in an absolute strategic defeat for Russia. This might be hard for the mainstream media follower to see this, but the moment is actually very close. Let me explain why. 1.        Yes! Russia is still advancing in Luhansk and around Izium. However, Russia should focus on consolidating what it has already conquered in Ukraine and the last thing they should do right now, is to advance further. The Russians have to fight incredibly hard battles for even the smallest village that they want to conquer. Everywhere in the area of the “Joint Group of Forces” (the Ukrainian army formation responsible for the defense of Donbass) is deeply entrenched and the Russians are losing dozens to hundreds of casualties for each village or city they conquer. This is absolutely draining the last operational reserves of the Russian army. After this, there is ...

Dear friends, family and colleagues, As promised in my last blog, it’s time for a new special. A very important one, because we are rapidly approaching a climax in this conflict. NATO members are now sending in very heavy weapons. Yesterday it was revealed that my country, the Netherlands, will be sending Pzh-2000 Howitzers, this is the most advanced artillery in the world and can have devastating consequences for the Russians. The Russian army is in serious danger of reaching breaking point soon and this will have implications that will shake the security balance for the 21 st century. Although NATO members are now sending in very heavy and advanced weaponry, NATO as a whole should still do one more thing: namely defining the strategic goal. Like when you start a project or start writing an essay, you should always start with a goal or a research question. When you fight a war, you need to have a strategic objective alike. Although totally unrealistic to reach them, Russia define...

Dear friends, family and colleagues, Been out for the Easter to take a break from this total madness that’s going on and to clear my head (in which I succeeded very well). A lot has been going on. Most notably the sinking of the Black Sea flag ship, Moskva of course, but also Russia’s failure to capitalize on Izium, the Ukrainian counteroffensives in the area and the Russians chickening out in their nuclear talk. But first the Moskva. I’m happy to have waited some time before I put it in the blog, because now we have footage available. (7) C4H10FO2P on Twitter: "The damaged #Russia'n cruiser #Moskva before sinking https://t.co/9LRoYH8vGf" / Twitter (7) Woofers on Twitter: "Clip of the Moskva taken before she sank. Not in a good situation! https://t.co/NiKkgYoXyV" / Twitter Forget all the Russian bullshit talk about an accident. I can clearly see from both the video and pictures that the Moskva has been hit below the deck by at least two projectiles. On...

Dear friends, family and colleagues, We are slowly building up to what inside sources in Russia already call the big “Spring Offensive.” All signs point to a continuing massive buildup of Russian troops to Izium and the Donbass. However, it’s also clear that Ukrainians don’t give the Russians any rest during their buildup. Reports and footage from the East are very scarce, but all signals point to the Ukrainians absolutely giving everything they have to attack the Russians on all points possible before they reach their staging areas for attack. This is necessary for three reasons 1.        The Ukrainians want to destroy as much as equipment as possible before it reaches the front lines. 2.        When the Russian soldiers are already under attack the moment they cross the border and are not even in the battlefield area, will have a heavy impact on the morale. After all, we are entering week 8 of the war and many of thos...

 Dear Friends, Family and Colleagues, At the moment of writing, the stage is being set for the grand battle of Donbass. If you’re appalled by the images of Mariupol and Bucha, I have some sad news. The worst is yet to come and it will get a whole lotta worse. Russia is emptying its depots of old equipment and finally started mobilizing 60.000 reservists (of questionable quality). The whole Russian army is essentially going to the Donbass region. I expect that we will start to see artillery and MLRS volleys of World War II Battle of Berlin levels. If you want to know how incredible destructive the East Front of the Second World War was: there’s a ton of history books about it. The Russians right now seem to have picked their guy for the Central Command position. It will most likely be Alexander Dvornikov. A four star general, that was previously in command of Russia’s Southern military district. And with this guy, they picked the only guy that I seem fit for the job. Dvornikov h...

Dear friends, family and colleagues, We are approaching the end of the sixth week of Russia’s invasion and all signs point towards a grand battle of Donbass that’s about to begin. Russia is literally moving every piece of equipment that’s still functioning and every soldier that’s able to pick up a rifle towards the front in Donbass. Like I said before, it’s all or nothing now for Putin. He abandoned two of the four fronts and there needs to be a victory before Victory Day on the 9 th of May. And this is where the problems only become bigger. 1.        Most people who are not familiar with military deployments need to understand the following: a.        Russia is now re-positioning troops from the former Northern and North-Eastern fronts to the Donbass. This doesn’t mean you can deploy them immediately. b.        Those forces have suffered heavy casualties and equipment losses. The first...