Ukraine Blog 14 - Russians
Dear friends, family and colleagues,
Updates
have been less frequently, since major events on the battlefield have largely
come to a standstill until today. Today was the first time in three days major
developments occurred.
1. The Ukrainian counteroffensive west
of Kherson is gathering steam and is very successful. The Ukrainians drove the Russians
from Snihurivka and Chevchenkove and are steadily approaching Kherson. They
launched a very successful strike against Kherson air base, destroying a lot of
equipment and a Russian command post that’s suspected that it had multiple
generals inside. Next blog will be a special on how to do as a civilian Battle
Damage Assessment (BDA) and verification of materials using OSINT. The advances
on the Kherson front are really good news. It means that they are driven from
the vicinity of the second nuclear powerplant and even more important: the
border of Moldova.
2. The Russians on the other hand did
make large advances in northern Luhansk. It can be said that Luhansk oblast is as
good as lost. Very sad, but Ukraine holding out there for three weeks is more
than I expected. The Russians seem to throw everything in the fight for
Mariupol. Today they took over the Western part of the city. Russia is desperate
for a victory in Mariupol
a. It gives Russia a much needed
victory of capturing a city. (How can you call it a victory though when you
levelled it with artillery in order to get it though)
b. It completes the land bridge between
Russia and Crimea.
c. Russia is putting an insane amount
of resources on Mariupol. When they have a victory in Mariupol they can
allocate those forces for other operations. I think in Mariupol they actually
can do that, since there will be DNR forces available to act as an occupation
force.
But the
hidden tale over the past couple of days is that Russia’s manpower and material
stocks are dwindling faster than I expected. There are many signals for this
1. I already voiced rumors in my previous
blogs, but it’s now confirmed: Essentially the complete Russian army goes all
into Ukraine. Units from the Pacific, peacekeepers from Karabakh, and even the
armies of the unrecognized republics of Abkhazia and South-Ossetia. I
especially don’t get the last. It essentially leaves both unrecognized states
open for Georgia to retake.
2. Russia started much earlier than I expected
to deploy its very old equipment that was officially decommissioned and stored
for sometimes 25 years. Most notably these very old Tochka-U tactical missiles
below.
It really shows that
Russia is running out of more modern Iskander and Kalibr missiles.
3. On April 1st each year,
new conscripts have to report to army bases to start their service. This year
125.000 boys (they are literally boys) are supposed to turn up. Changes are
high, they will be send to the battlefield with only very basic training or no training
at all
Especially
the combination of point 2 and 3 will be disastrous for the Russian army. Sending
untrained conscripts with old worn-out equipment is recipe for failure.
And there’s
something that needs to be understood, why Putin’s current actions are so
dangerous for Russia’s future as a viable state.
Russia (and
Ukraine alike) suffered huge manpower losses during the Second World War.
Seventeen percent of the male population died on the East front. In Ukraine and
Belarus those percentages are even above forty percent. The impact of this
disaster is being felt in Russia and Ukraine till today. Especially in the elder
age groups, the share of women is really much higher. Moreover, there are the
growth of younger generations was slowed considerably since World War Two.
Demographically
Russia and Ukraine have been in decline since the end of the Cold War. Russia
is losing a million people per year and can only keep its population reasonably
stable by convincing Russians living in the Americas, Europe and the former Soviet
countries to come back. But even then, Russia’s population has been declining
still ever since 1990. Under the current prediction the Russian population will
fall from 144 million now to 110 million in 2060. Entire villages and towns lie
abandoned across the Russian landscape, because their population simply died
out and the remaining people left to bigger cities.
Kadykchan - the Largest Ghost Town in Eastern Russia - YouTube
This estimate
was pre-covid and pre-Ukraine invasion. In case the Russian casualty figures of
15.000 are correct (once more: I have no reason to doubt the Ukrainian
figures), it means that Russia is losing part of the population it needs most:
young fathers. Especially losing those 18-19 year old conscripts will be disastrous
for the future of Russia. If casualty figure will rise to 50.000 the impact on
the demographics of Russia will start to be very severe. Very interesting point
is: that Putin is aware of this himself: “The thought of de-populated Russia haunts
me the most.”
Russia's Demography Makes War a Painful Bet for Putin (foreignpolicy.com)
In case Russia
will really be that crazy to send in untrained conscripts after April 1st,
the demographic future of Russia will be in serious trouble. Although Ukraine has
the same problem and also their demographics will suffer, for now on the military
side, it is not of a problem for Ukraine. The Ukrainian diaspora returns massively
to defend their motherland, while no Russians go back to do the same.
And then
there are the Russians themselves. Although there are protests, I still do
believe the majority of the Russian population supports the war. However, their
motives might very much differ. When looking at Western and Russian tv interviews
I can roughly distinguish four categories
1. People who are against the war
2. People who are hard core
nationalists and want a Rusky Mir
3. People who don’t care, as long as
they don’t suffer from it
4. People who genuinely believe the
Russian army is on a sacred mission to help the poor people of Donbass.
The people under
category 2 are by far the smallest group. The people in this category can’t be
helped and will keep on supporting the war, no matter wat.
But the
people under categories 3 and 4 can be influenced in a positive way with the
right information. I especially believe the people in category 4 are good
people and for them it will be heart breaking when the truth will come out (and
it will) what the Russian army was really doing in Ukraine and that their sons
and grandsons will never come home.
In general,
please don’t avoid Russians in case you know some or you meet some. They need a
conversation with us more than ever. I was really appalled reports that Russians
where refused entry in certain shops in France. And I’m not talking about a Gucci
store, but simple shops. Especially right now, Europeans must set a good
example and we certainly shouldn’t promote apartheid against Russians.
In general,
when dealing with Russian people, please engage in a discussion, interact with
them and share your opinions. Many Russians are in the West because they had to
flee their homeland because of repression by Putin. They are here for a reason.
Only when you’re finding out you’re dealing with a hardcore Russian nationalist
(trust me, I think there are very few of them in Europe), it’s more wise to
break off contact. Those people can’t be helped.
Best
regards and "Slava Ukraini!"
Niels
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