Ukraine Blog 13 - Stalemate, Plan B and Negotiations
Dear friends, family and colleagues,
A couple of
days have past and most fronts seem to be on a standstill. Russia seems to make
small gains northwest of Melitopol and most notably the Donbass area
-Most of the areas in the north of
Luhansk oblast are now under Russian control
-Small breakthroughs have been made
in Donetsk oblast
The Russians
also start to publicize some decent footage of military operations. It took a while
before they started doing that. Quite a lot of footage involves the deployment of
laser-guided artillery and artillery guidance by drones
To be
honest: these are the first times that I noticed Russia performing some change
in tactics and when they can deploy these tactics across a wide arrange of
units (which I doubt), it will have an impact on the battlefield
However,
Ukrainian resistance in Mariupol is relentless and there are reports that they even
drove the Russians back beyond the northern city limits. As expected, Azov
battalion is putting up a ferocious defense. They killed a Russian GRU general:
warning censored body
The Azov armored
units are taking on multiple targets
The Dutch
news is continuously screaming that Kyiv is about to be encircled. However, they
are not even close to that. The Russians only hold Hostomel, Vorzel and Bucha in
the North-West. All of these towns are heavily contested and are being targeted
by very accurate Ukrainian artillery fire. Brovary, to the North East is still
heavily contested. Other than that, Kyiv is still wide open. As such, it can
still be well supplied with food and other supplies.
The front where
Ukraine decisively drove the Russians back, is the Mykolayiv front. North of
Mykolayiv is a very strategic place called Voznesensk. In case the Russians
capture it, they can move north to the next nuclear powerplant and south to
Odessa. The Ukrainians decisively defeated the Russians there and drove them back
all the way south. I spent quite some time finding the proper evidence for this.
Found two must watch reports, one of them from France24 and one of them from a
local reporter:
Voznesensk resists Russian takeover: City occupied 3 days, now freed & preparing to defend - YouTube
Voznesensk 11.03.2022 Russian war against Ukrainian people - YouTube
It’s a very
small town, but the Russians not being able to capture it, puts their whole
Southern front in deep problems. At the time of writing there are reports that
a naval invasion of Odessa is imminent. Let’s see whether an attack from the Russians
on multiple fronts can make a difference here.
There are
already signs that Russia is preparing for a plan B, which implies that they
are no longer planning to take the whole country. The clearest indication for
me is the fact that the Russians in their propaganda and Telegram chats actively
are laying the groundwork for another “People’s Republic.” This time in
Kherson. I think the Russians are scaling down their plans to just wanting to
establish the land bridge to Crimea as was a much discussed scenario prior to
the invasion. I’m pretty sure that will happen in case of the next couple of
days they will also start to lay the groundwork for a “Zaporizhzhia People’s
Republic.” I think clearest indication there is that the Russians already
replaced the Mayor with a puppet. Look at her: you can’t find a more core pro-Breznjev
Soviet Babushka that Galina Danilchenko
This young,
energetic gentlemen is the official (and now kidnapped) mayor
Problem is
that both (almost entirely Russian speaking) regions are now fiercely anti-Russians.
They have a hard time finding collaborators and daily protests ensure that the
Russians need to keep hundreds of soldiers away from front-line fighting to suppress
protests. And that they have a huge manpower problem becomes very obvious now. Read
this news two days ago:
I
immediately knew that Ukraine didn’t recapture this small town south of Kherson.
The Russians left, because there was no fierce resistance there and they simply
don’t have the manpower to hold it. Indeed a day later they (briefly) returned
Let me be
very clear here: in case Russian can’t control a small city in the South and the
surrounding villages: they can’t capture, let alone hold, a city of two million
without raising it to the ground.
But there
are dangers emerging and for the first time a danger that kept me awake
yesterday. And no: it’s not the nukes. There are signals that Russia and
Ukraine are having negotiations and that it appears that they “find” more and
more common ground. And this is what I fear most: An agreement where
1. Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty
over Crimea
2. Ukraine rejects NATO membership
3. Ukraine recognizes the Luhansk and
Donetsk people’s republics
4. Ukraine recognizes a Kherson and Zaporizhzhia
People’s republic.
5. Russia withdraws from the rest of
the territories they occupied
When this
happens: ALL Ukrainian resistance, deaths and the enormous damage will have
been in vain. It will be a bad deal for Europe, but most of all, for Ukraine.
In case this happens
1. Putin will be maximally emboldened.
He will have prove (and he can prove to the Russian public) that you actually
can decisive military force against a neighbor and increase your influence to
get a concrete result out of it. And the sanctions: trust me: Putin stopped
giving a damn a long time ago.
2. The Russian army will have time to
get its forces out, restructure, replenish and replace its ground forces in
order for them to move on the next target, which will either be the rest of
Ukraine in two years or the Baltics/Finland/Sweden.
In my
opinion there can be only one outcome that satisfies both parties in a negotiation
1. Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty
over Crimea
2. Ukraine rejects NATO membership
In this
case, Russia has achieved a full recognition of its borders (and as such potentially
on the international stage) and achieved the main point that it started all the
fuzz about in the first place: keeping Ukraine out of NATO. Ukraine in turn can
show that it effectively can make a deal by getting the Donbass back and giving
something in return.
The signals
that I get from different Twitter accounts and Telegram groups, are that the
Ukrainians are seriously considering the five points. Although it will stop the
bombing, the shelling and human suffering, it will ultimately in one or two
years prove to be a very bad deal for Ukraine and the rest of the world. Although
I still think that changes are small Ukraine and Russia come to an agreement, this
is the thing that makes me nervous.
Best
regards and "Slava Ukraini!"
Niels
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