Ukraine Blog 08 - A Really Really Bad Day for the Russian Air Force
Dear friends, family and colleagues,
What a
horrible day it was yesterday for the Russian air force. Barely half an hour
after I published my previous blog that elaborated on the inability of the
Russian air force to conduct a sustained 24/7 air campaign over a prolonged
period of time, reports of one loss after another started to trickle in. The excellent
blog of OryxSpioenkop couldn’t even catch up with confirmed air losses and the
final tally after just 24 hours is
- 1x
Su-30SM multirole aircraft
- 2 Su-34
strike aircraft
- 2 Su-25
close air support aircraft
- 2
Mi-24/35 attack helicopters
- 2 Mi-8
transport helicopter
- 1
Orlan-10 UAV
The SU-30
and SU-34 are Russia’s most advanced fighter planes. And we need to go back to
the 1980’s to find parallel’s for similar airborne losses on the same day (so
not aircraft destroyed on the ground). I think the last time air forces suffered
similar horrible losses during the same day were both in 1982, Argentina during
the Falkland war and Syria against Israel during Operation “Peace for Galilea.”
So what’s
going on here? Do the Ukrainians suddenly have better weapons? I think
something else is going on and you need to go back in Soviet/Russian military
history to find the explanation. What’s happening is that the Kremlin wants to
see results and it wants results FAST! As opposed to Western military, who will
reevaluate their force posture and attack approaches and come up with new
plans, the Russians senior commanders will start to become more reckless and
take way more risk. This happens in almost any dictatorship, but especially the
Soviet doctrine was prone to this. My belief is that Stalin is the root cause for
this. Generals had to prove themselves to “the boss” and this often result in
taking extraordinary risks. Quite often those efforts failed and the Gulag was
the end station for those unfortunate generals. I also think that the lack of results
in Ukraine means that many senior generals realize they have to prove themselves
to the current boss. Just as during the Stalin times, this results in horrible
losses. In case this continues to be the daily loss rate, then these are losses that are in my opinion absolutely unsustainable for more than two weeks.
The
following video shows how recklessly low without additional support this MI-24
helicopter flies. It’s plucked out of the sky with very little effort
This SU-34 is
shot down right above the city of Chernihiv, which is very close to the Russian
border. This shows reckless moves in a place where Russia is supposed to have
full air superiority
The pilot
of the Russian SU-34 pleaded to his captors that he never bombed any civilians,
but as opposed to the poor conscripts in the Russian ground forces, this is a
lie. A lot of Syrians on the internet were keen to identify that this pilot
flew many missions in Syria where he was bombing civilian areas.
Syrians in
general are actually ecstatic about the resistance of the Ukrainians. Finally
after a lot of suffering done by the Russian air force they get some form of
revenge. And this is important to understand. As opposed to the Chechens, the
Syrians and the Georgians, the Ukrainian military actually has quite some
available resources to do something about air strikes and the famous levelling
of cities by Russian MLRS systems.
Two days
ago it was reported that the Ukrainians were launching a counter offensive
around Kharkiv and that they drove them all the way back to the border. There’s
no way of telling whether this is true, since there’s no footage and the fog of
war is thick, but MLRS fire on the city is almost reduced to zero and the only
bombing that’s being performed right now comes from aircraft.
I get a lot
of questions whether I support a no-fly zone. Of course I would see the Russian
aircraft getting the hell out of Ukrainian airspace, but I think it’s simply
unrealistic. In case NATO starts to impose a no-fly zone, the only thing the
Russians can do, is threatening with the nukes. From their military perspective
I would do the same. So please don’t bet on it and NATO already said ‘no.’ We
have now effective ways of support Ukraine without making it World War III.
Please not forget by far the most carnage carried out by the Russians comes
from the artillery and MLRS systems. Even in the event you do install a no-fly zone,
you need to start bombing sorties to destroy those. The Ukrainians with their
Bayraktars are hitting hard on them anyway. It’s incredibly sad for Ukrainian
civilians, but depleting Russian artillery batteries take time. It would even
take time for NATO airstrikes to degrade them.
The
Russians were defeated and pushed back Mykolayiv. As I expected, the terrain around
Mykolayiv is more easy to defend than Kherson. Most of the helicopter losses
from yesterday came reportingly from Mykolayiv.
The only small
Russian advance came north of Kyiv in Irpin. Finally something becomes a little
clear about what happened to “the convoy.” (alright, you made me spent some
words on the convoy) The Ukrainians apparently flooded the area. This is now
confirmed with aerial footage. Not that it immediately destroys formations, but
it makes the soil soggy and impossible to maneuver in.
It’s
reported now that the convoy is out of battery power and just sitting there.
That would make perfect sense that the Ukrainians so far didn’t spent any effort
on the convoy and used their resources in areas with a higher priority. It’s an
excellent example of battlefield prioritization by the Ukrainians. Irpin is undoubtedly
under very heavy pressure, but even when Russian troops make it past Irpin only
then the really ugly part of urban combat in Kyiv starts (god forbid that
happens). Russian casualties, which already are at 11.000 according to the
Ukrainian side (I trust those numbers more and more) will increase even more.
What will
be still a major cause for concern are Russian navy movements. The Russian navy
appears to move a landing fleet in position with the aim of invading Odessa. We
haven’t seen great action from the Russian navy, so far, but it would be
interesting to see whether they can produce any results as opposed to the
ground forces and air force. In my assessment, the odds don’t look well for
Russia as well in this field. Russia has assembled the following landing craft
- 2x
Alligator class landing craft
- 1x Ivan Gren
class landing craft
- 5x
Ropucha class landing craft
This is
almost forty percent of the Russian main landing craft force. Any such force
also need to be accompanied by support ships for protection and coastal bombardment.
So far I have only seen a couple of support ships. Since the Russians dominate
(not occupy) most of the Ukrainian coast, the Ukrainians are very well aware
right now where any Russian amphibious invasion will take place. Odessa is the
only option. Any amphibious operation requires a tremendous amount of
preparation and Russia has even less experience with regards to this than army
and air operations. Odessa seem to be reasonably well prepared and American
SIGINT efforts in Romania are almost constant.
As a final
point: I slightly edited all blog posts. Normally in case I got something wrong,
I intend to post it via comments and leave the original blog intact. However,
for this particular situation I made an exception. My Ukrainian colleague raised
the attention to me that I was spelling “Kiev” as opposed to “Kyiv.” Kiev is
the Russian name and Kyiv the Ukrainian name. Especially in the light of
current events it’s very important to distinguish the difference in spelling
and I’m very keen on using the Ukrainian one. The Dutch name for the city is
still the Russian “Kiev” and this is still a leftover from Soviet standards.
It might
sound like trivial thing, but it’s important to understand that besides current
Russian aggression, the Ukrainian nation was (as with the other 14 republics)
traumatized by the Soviet-Union. A brutal insurgency against the Soviets was
carried out till 1956 in the West of the country. After the revolution of dignity
in 2014, the Ukrainians started an active process of Decommunization. Streets
with names of Soviet heroes were replaced with new names, the remaining Lenin
statues were torn down and even city names changes, most notably “Dnipropetrovsk”
became “Dnipro.”
It will be
interesting what today will bring. There are serious reports that Russian
forces on the ground will be out of resources by today. Next few days are crucial
in determining which direction the conflict will take.
Best
regards and "Slava Ukraini!"
Niels
Hvala za blog brale
ReplyDeleteNiels, Thanks for your interesting updates.
ReplyDeleteIt really gives a broader perspective, in addition to what we get in the Dutch media.
Keep up doing your good job!
Keimpe
Niels, thanks again. How can I/we get notifications of new posts? Grtz, Maarten
ReplyDelete