Ukraine Blog 05 - Russia Finally Receives Air Supremacy?

Dear friends, family and colleagues,

Almost a week since the Russian invasion began and sad to say, but at first sight, the Russians start to make some breakthroughs on the Southern front. Overall, the Russians finally started to show a little bit (but just a little) of battlefield professionalism. As usual: let’s break it down.

Russia:

1.       Russia seems to finally be able to get some air dominance (not supremacy). There are several indications for that:

a.       The Russians put one of their Beriev A-50 Mainstays in the air. These are the equivalents of the famous NATO E-3 AWACS air surveillance aircraft. They flew several sorties over Belarus. This should give them some reasonable overview of the airspace activities. They should have done this right from the start of the campaign. It’s really puzzling why they only start doing this right now

b.       Russia finally deployed some close air support (CAS) aircraft, like SU-25’s in the battlefield around Kyiv. Their impact was immediately noticeable. For the first time they were able to give some reasonable battlefield support

c.       Around Kharkiv, they deployed their advance SU-34 multirole strike aircraft. Very advanced aircraft capable of very accurate precision strikes. These are actually helpful, since Russia doesn’t have to solely rely on inaccurate cruise-missiles and MLRS systems.

Does this mean Ukrainian air defenses are down and out. By far not: One of the SU-34’s was shot down and above Kyiv, the Ukrainian S-300 SAM’s shot down two of Russia’s very modern SU-35’s. However, overall it can be said, Russia is increasingly dominating the skies.

 

In short: I think Russia controls the higher altitudes, but on lower altitudes, the Stingers that the West delivered really start to make an impact

 

2.       The Southern front: Still the only front where Russia seems to make good progress is the Southern front. The units there seem to be more professional and work methodically. Today Kherson was captured and the Russian forces started to move West to Mykolayiv. I don’t excluded the possibility that the Ukrainians performed a tactical withdrawal. West of Kherson is a plain where it’s very easy to target enemy forces. Already reports start to surface that columns of Russians are being wiped out there. And this brings to light another dimension. Like I pointed out earlier: there’s a difference between conquest and occupation. Yes, Russian seems to be able to conquer Kherson and Melitopol, but already on the first day of occupation, massive protests by the Ukrainian, Russian Speaking Ukrainian and Russian population erupted. Many Russian soldiers showed sympathy and there are reports some of them even switched sides. This will only increase over the coming days.

3.       Belarus/Luka: Lukashenko continued to make a fool of himself and embarrassed Putin. During a giant press conference which showed a map that exposed essentially the entire attack plan. And that attack plan confirmed something that I said all along, but nobody believed: Moldova is also a target. I have no reason to doubt this. It’s very logical along the thinking lines of Putin and Luka and Moldova and the West should be prepared.

4.       The move that surprised me the most today is that Putin flew in Victor Yanukovych (the corrupt president that was deposed in 2014) to Minsk. They only reason why he would do this, is to make him the puppet president. This really shows how out of touch and delusional Putin still is. Yanukovych is by far the most hated man in Ukraine, especially after his self-enrichment was exposed. I believe Putin still thinks that Yanukovych is a legitimate democratic president that the Ukrainians want. This is unbelievable. The guy that I think was more logical as a puppet, is Viktor Medvedchuk, a pro-Russian media oligarch. Hated by many Ukrainians, but still respected until a few months ago by some Ukrainians as a guy with whom you can make deals. Not that he makes a chance as a puppet, but still a better choice than Yanukovych. 

Ukraine:

1.       Ukraine continues to adapt on the battlefield. Where they are defeated a very effective insurgency/fall back guerilla emerges. There are no chaotic withdrawals, but very organized tactical withdrawals.

2.       Ukraine continues to capture many Russian soldiers. They make the smart move of letting the soldiers making phone calls to their family and loved ones in Russia. I saw some videos: I can see they let them speak freely, with no suggested comments. This is a very good move in getting the word out in Russia, where alternative media is not easily accessible.

3.       Remember the phrase: “Fuck you Russian warship?” Today the Ukrainians scored a confirmed hit on a Russian warship (it’s not confirmed whether it sank though). These type of actions are very important for the morale, especially since Ukraine doesn’t appear to have a navy anymore.

4.       Ukraine seems to have receive more Bayraktars and they were already put into action in Sumy and Kyiv oblasts. They keep on massacring Russian convoys. I’m really not worried about that 40 kilometers convoy. It just shows how the Russians are absolutely not performing complex maneuvering warfare, but instead chose to sit ducks in easy exposed positions. There are observations that the convoy is seriously suffering from fuel and food shortages.

In Russia itself: Dissent is increasing even faster than I thought. The sanctions already hit really hard and Russia quickly changes into a pariah state. To give you an illustration to show what Ukrainians are fighting against (and are protecting Europe against), please see the attached clip where the Russian police arrested young kids only because they held a banner “no to war.” It’s heartbreaking and must be hard to watch for everyone, especially parents, but I have to share it with you. This is why we have to fight against becoming “Putinland” (not Russia)

Andro on Twitter: "Children with parents in detention centers in Russia... For protesting war https://t.co/VIeuyha92b" / Twitter

And how’s Russia doing on the international stage: well, not so good. In the General Assembly of the UN today, the resolution to condemn the aggression against Ukraine only received an against vote from five states: Russia itself, Syria, North-Korea, Belarus and Eritrea (nicknamed the North-Korea of Africa). It means that even traditional rogue states like Cuba, China and Venezuela abstained. This is incredibly significant. Russia really needs to scratch itself behind the how it looks like when your only friends are the countries that are on the bottom of the Freedom House democracy index.

In the coming days Russia will increase pressure on the battlefield via equipment and personal reinforcements and most likely make some more gains, but already the medium term picture looks very bleak for Russia.

Best regards and "Slava Ukraini!"

Niels

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