Ukraine Blog 03 - Russian Air Force, Belarus, Sanctions and the Nukes
Dear friends, family and now colleagues,
Day 5 of
the Russian invasion. At first glance, things seem to be stabilizing, but a lot
of things are happening in the background that are really significant. Let’s
break them down one by one.
Russia:
1. On the northern and eastern fronts,
the Russians are making absolutely no progress. So with regards to Kharkiv, the
Russians (as I predicted) started doing what they always do when they become
bogged down: they started levelling the city with MLRS batteries. It now starts
to get ugly and will unfortunately result in a huge loss of life. The Russians
can do this in Kharkiv, because the international reporters left Kharkiv. Kyiv
for now will be spared, because all the international cameras are still there.
The Russians know that when they start levelling the city in front of the
cameras, it will also reach the Russian population and many Russians still
think back with shame to the 90’s when Yeltsin (and Putin) levelled Grozny. And
this won’t make the Russian population more happy.
2. Russia finally seems to get more dominance in the air. Above Kharkiv, for the first time I saw videos of SU-34’s flying on lower altitude. These are the more modern multi-role strike aircraft. Make no mistake: the Ukrainian air force is still there, but it seems that the Russians at least took out a major part of the Ukrainian air force right now. It’s absolutely ridiculous that the supposed second largest air force in the world needs five days to establish some kind of air dominance over a country that has only very old aircraft in service. However, this will be only for a short time. Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria will give their Mig-29’s to the Ukrainian air force starting with immediate effect. As long as the Ukrainians keep aircraft in the sky, there’s hope they will actually win this conflict. This is especially true for the Bayraktars. I followed some conflicts with regards to destroyed armor and war booty, but the Russians are losing so much stuff that I simply can’t keep up with the footage (and these are just the verified losses). It’s absolutely insane. The Russians keep losing large amounts of equipment and soldiers in bombardments or equipment is simply left behind. This is especially the case on the Northern and Eastern fronts. This leads to a very weird new 21st century reality. Ukrainian farmers tow away tanks and Ukrainian chicks start to make TikToks driving around in abandoned Russian armor.
It’s simply unbelievable how weak
Russian conventional forces are and it must (should) be really embarrassing for
them
3. The only front where the Russians seem to make any reasonable progress is the Southern front from Crimea. Multiple towns and mid-size cities have fallen under Russian control there. But most towns who fall under that category have only been under occupation for two days and already the massive challenge that any Russian occupation force will face started to appear. The Russians captured the coastal town of Berdiansk yesterday and put it under supposed occupation. Next day the full town moved to the town hall, started to sing the Ukrainian anthem and slogans and the soldiers were visibly moved.
And this is very logical: the people speak the same language as the soldiers and the soldiers can relate. Ultimately the soldiers just left the town. And that’s where this day has made a decisive difference. The Russian morale seems to be on the verge of collapsing. It’s not only the casualties, but the fact that they see Russian-speakers and Russians living freely in an independent state, while they were sent on “exercises” only to end up in war, that’s making the impact here. In other footage Russians just leave their equipment and start walking to… yeah, to where?
4. A special section on Belarus:
Yesterday there was a “constitutional referendum” in Belarus and “oh how
surprising,” 65 percent voted in favor of Russian stationing nuclear weapons in
Belarus. Look at the footage in Minsk from yesterday and one can see it was
full of protesters for the first time in more than a year. It was always
anticipated that Belarus would join the fight after the referendum. I would
expect them to open a front on the West of Ukraine. I think this would be an
utterly stupid move considering the nature of the territory.
a. The West of Ukraine has always been
considered the heartland of Ukrainian identity. So expect resistance there to
be even worse than the Russian speaking regions.
b. The Belarussian army NEVER fought a
war. When the Russian army is already performing this bad, I can’t even imagine
how bad it would be for the Belarussians. In case the Belarussians will start
to suffer the same level of casualties as the Russians, Lukashenko will be in
big problems. Remember: all protests in Belarus have been suppressed by just
the riot police who are cold-blooded siloviki (google it please). Lukashenko is
NOT popular in the army, which he wisely chose not to deploy in the suppression
of protests. This can turn against him very ugly, very quickly.
5. The sanctions: Today was a massacre
in the Russian currency market. The Rubble and shares of major Russian banks
all collapsed in a worse rate than the 1998 financial crisis. Several European
subsidiaries of Russian banks in continental Europe could go default by
tomorrow. To give a little bit of context on how bad this is for ordinary
Russians. Tens of thousands of Russians had to walk home today because their
debit and credit cards no longer worked on the Moscow metro. And this is only
the first day of sanctions! For the Russian elite: hundreds of billions of
Euro’s in assets evaporated today. The stock market won’t open today and not
tomorrow, but it will have to open some day. Combined with the news of heavy
combat losses in Ukraine, I expect this will increase the level of dissent and protest
very soon.
6. The nukes: I was really hesitant to
write something about it, because it makes a lot of people, including yours
truly, very nervous. But I gave it a thought and I think I’m able to put it in
perspective. First of all: like the Americans, the Russians have four readiness
levels. The Russians increased to the next level above normal. It means we are
still two levels from the max (which is still not nuclear war) and one level
below that of the Cuban missile crisis. Many people argue that that Putin
really is sufficient crazy to deploy nuclear weapons. I agree to some point,
but let’s break it down: I think the Russian regular command still agrees with
the current approach for the following reasons:
a. NATO/EU will be delivering fighter
jets and many more arms to Ukraine. Russia initially stated that they would
bomb those shipments before they could reach Ukraine. Later they toned that
down to: “We are going to launch patrols with long range bombers to prevent
arms shipments from coming into Ukraine.” This is essentially an
acknowledgement that their air force (as we have seen in Ukraine) is so weak,
that they can’t penetrate NATO air defenses. This leaves nuclear deterrence as
the only deterrence that’s really a serious deterrent.
b. Even when Putin is crazy enough to
use a nuclear weapon, he won’t likely launch the all-out attack. He will likely
detonate a tactical nuclear weapon in the Atlantic Ocean or North pole, to make
a point and start negotiations. When this happens, we will likely see
negotiations over a Russian withdrawal versus a neutral and demilitarized
Ukraine. But let me clear about this: this will be the moment to start to think
about personal safety.
However, for
the Russian regular command, this will change after Putin goes full bananas.
And that’s why I don’t see nuclear war happening. The Siloviki around him don’t
want to perish in one final conflict,
a. First and foremost, they want to
enrich themselves and enjoy a happy life
b. I observed footage of Putin giving
the orders to Valery Gerasimov* (chief of staff and the inventor of the
Gerasimov doctrine that states that you can deploy tactical nukes in a
conventional war to start negotiations) and Sergey Shoygu (minister of defense)
and both looked visibly shocked. Like I said yesterday: many are under the
impression that “the boss lost it.”
c. Putin can’t just push a button: it
needs to go to a complete process with reasonable checks and balances. Given
the morale of the troops on the ground in the Ukraine versus the ones in the
Strategic Rocket Forces, I don’t think any Siloviki is waiting for this. For
the first time since Putin’s reign started in 2000 I see the real possibility
of a palace coup.
Still: the fact that I’m discussing the topic
to this detail is so weird to me and shows that current times are strange times
indeed.
Then
Europe:
1. Where I have been very critical over
the stance towards Putin over the past let’s say 15 years, I was so positively
suppressed about Europe’s strength this weekend. Decisions that normally take
years of decision-making were now done in a couple of days. Virtually all
European states are now sending weapons to Ukraine. This is absolutely vital
for keeping Ukrainian assistance alive.
2. The most dramatic EU policy shift in
70! Years came from Germany. Gone was the hesitation and appeasement. They are
going to send weapons and Putin achieved what now other American president
tried to do: finally raising the German defense budget to a minimum of 2
percent of the GDP. In addition, extended operation of nuclear powerplants is
now on the table to reduce dependency on Russia
3. Perhaps overlooked, but by far the
most important European (so not EU 😉) shift in more than 200 years! For
the first time since announcing neutrality Switzerland decided to go along with
European sanctions against Russia. Not even Hitler managed to do this. This is
absolutely unprecedented. Let’s sink that in.
4. Ursula van der Leyen proposed rapid
Ukrainian entry into the EU without any of the usual protocols.
I’m
normally considered a hard liner against authoritarian regimes like Iran and
Russia, but in this new European enlightenment (absolutely no Chamberlain
weakness here), I would like to exercise some caution. Especially when it comes
to the last point. I do agree that IF Ukraine wins this war, they should be
immediately admitted into the EU (like I said: “Rarely the world was dependent
on such an at first sight insignificant nation.”). However, it’s dangerous to
make such bold statements in this phase. Right now Europe is in the reasonable
comfortable position to deliver support, weapons and impose sanctions, while
still not making it officially our problem. Immediate EU membership for Ukraine
would essentially mean that we are at war with Russia. I don’t think we should
ruin this moment.
Tonight
will be again a crucial night on especially the northern and southern fronts.
Best
regards and Slava Ukraini!
Niels
*To some of
you I reported that Gerasimov was fired by Putin yesterday. In the end it
turned out to be des-information. Please understand: events are following in
quick succession, the fog of war is thick and as a result I also do sometimes
fall victim to des-information.
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