Ukraine Blog 01 - First Signs of Russian Army trouble

 Dear friends and family, I keep you guys quite updated on the situation in Ukraine. I decided to create one generic update to limit the amount of messages and keep more people up to date in a more efficient way.

We are on day 3 of this mess right now and the following picture starts to appear

1.       The supposed “modernized” and “professionalized” Russian army is quite a joke. Based on many videos I have seen from Russian TikToks (with horrible background music btw) to footage of captured Russian equipment and soldiers, a picture starts to emerge that Russian troops have a complete lack of operational, tactical and situational battlefield awareness and is still the same ill-disciplined force that we know all too well from Chechnya and Georgia.

a.       Quite often you see Russian troops strolling around their tanks and APC’s with rifles in their neck and wandering around their vehicles. To me this shows that Russian troops have not been prepared to face a major conventional land army. They still seem to be living with the mindset that they are fighting insurgents in Chechnya or are performing a hybrid war in the Donbass. This is the first battle against a conventional army since World War II they are fighting against a land army and the lack of experience is very prevalent. Russian soldiers are showing disinterest and are often even seen with bottles of Vodka. Most of them were told, they would go on a training and suddenly they were on the battlefield

b.       It’s day 3 and they still don’t have air superiority. Ukrainian Mig’s and Sukhoi’s are still roaming the skies and actively shooting down Russian aircraft in dogfights. Considering that Russia’s aircraft are supposed to be state of the art and Ukraine’s planes are mostly 30 years old, this is quite telling. It shows that despite their experience in Syria, Russia’s pilots still lack a comprehensive skill set for combat pilots. If Russia doesn’t manage to achieve air superiority in the next three days, the moral of ground troops will seriously start to suffer. Moreover: the failure of executing an initial “Shock and Awe” strike like Iraq 2003 and a destruction of the Ukrainian air force, gave the Ukrainians the necessary time to mobilize and prepare defenses.

c.       The lack of air superiority is also combined with some pretty reckless moves by airborne forces. On day 1 there was this assault on an airfield north of Kyiv with helicopters that was repulsed and the assault forces was completely routed. Last night they tried to fly in paratroopers with giant IL-76 transport planes. Two! of them were shot down (confirmed by the U.S.) likely resulting in huge loss of life among elite forces. These shoot downs were likely performed by Ukrainian Mig-29’s. On the southern front, the Russians crossed the Dniepr river and reached Mykolayiv. However, the Ukrainians retook the bridge and destroyed it, leaving the Russians isolated (and ultimately decimated). This is a BASIC mistake. I can’t believe the Russian command took the bait. Every person who played the game Risk knows that you have to secure your fallback supply lines

Remember: The Russians had the time to make a plan for at least a year. The Ukrainians didn’t mobilize until last week and had to improvise and still they gained the initiative on the second day.

2.       The Ukrainians on the other hand are showing excellent battlefield awareness (especially considering the situation they are in). Command and control is far from disintegrating and Ukrainian soldiers are showing great tactical awareness. There are likely two reasons for this

a.       This is their land. They know their terrain and they are motivated to fight for it

b.       I suspect the U.S. (and some other NATO members) are giving them state of the art intelligence about the situation on the battlefield. Flights of E-8 Joint Stars and RC-135V/W Rivet Joint surveillance aircraft are intense and are likely to help the Ukrainians in getting a full battlefield overview. I haven’t seen the Russians performing similar flights.

c.       Despite the prediction that the Ukrainians could only effectively fight the Russians in cities, they are doing relatively fine in open field combat. They do sustain heavy losses as well, but this is by far a one sided fight. I suspect that (to my surprise) the Turkish Bayrakter drones are playing a significant role here as well as the Javelins and NLAW missiles provided by NATO countries.

So what next: Well, Russia still has only has deployed one third of the force at the border in Ukraine. They still have plenty of reserves at hand and this will make it almost impossible for Ukraine to win on the battlefield. Now that a quick smooth victory with airborne forces doesn’t seem to be likely, I expect the Russians to do what they always do when they get bogged down: thrown in the Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) and start levelling cities. Putin is too far in to back down right now. He has to proceed. It’s sad but true, but when this goes on for another two days, the Russians will start levelling Kyiv (and other cities) resulting in a huge loss of life. What particularly worries me, is that the Ramzan Kadyrov committed 10.000 Chechen fighters to the Russian invasion. As opposed to Russian soldiers, they are highly skilled, disciplined and ruthless. Typical Putin, that he will rely on non-Russian irregular forces to perform the most dirty jobs.

It will all come to a war of attrition. I expect that when Russia’s deaths will approach the 30.000 (we are after three days at around 2.000), we will start to see a significant breakdown of Russian morale and risk of desertion and even mutiny. I did not expect the Russians to perform so poorly and I see this as real possibility. Especially since the Ukrainians have (at least in Kyiv) managed to successfully arm the population. They are literally fighting for the survival of their country and many of them are willing to die for it.

There are also some positive developments outside the battlefield.

1.       China abstained from a resolution condemning Russia for it’s actions. This might sound lame, but this is actually very significant. Normally China always votes like Russia, especially with regards to geopolitics. This is a major signal to Putin, like “We’re bro’s but we won’t die for you.”

2.       Kazakhstan refused a request to join the fight in Ukraine. This is also very significant. This is Russian last remaining big nearby ally besides China. Last month Putin had to safe the ass of the president. The fact that so soon after this happened, they refuse to join is very significant.

3.       Russian anti-war protests start to grow. Lots of Russians are really ashamed and angry. As a matter of fact the only Russians that I see in street interviews performed by Western media are some of the old people of the Breznjev generation. When the casualty rates in the army will rise, their shame will likely turn into anger.

I hope this overview will be helpful. I will likely not post every day, but in case there are significant changes that might impact the ultimate outcome, I will post something. Please also let me know in case you no longer want to receive this.

Best regards and  "Slava Ukraini!"

Niels