Ukraine Blog 11 - Turning the Tide and Strategic Implications

Dear friends, family and colleagues,

Over the past two days a lot has happened on the battlefield, though quite some developments are not so obvious. However, I think I can say with confidence that the tide has started to turn in favor of Ukraine and for the following reasons:

1.       Russia’s forces are now so stretched out that they can’t effectively supply them nor that effective communication is possible. This is also the case for the until now reasonably successful southern front.

2.       Russian media channels start to post old videos as new news. As a matter of fact I haven’t seen any new video’s for four days in a row now from the Russian side. One might expect you want to show your successes.

3.       I think Putin realizes that he can’t declare martial law and a general mobilization in Russia. But he found an alternative. Apparently thousands of Syrian republican guard soldiers are being prepared to be flown to Ukraine. I think that’s even more of a humiliation to Russia. You’re not even able to fight your smaller next door neighbor and you have to fly in the Syrians to do the job.

(1) Charles Lister on Twitter: "This morning, #Putin told his national security team that #Russia should begin accepting ‘volunteers’ from the #MiddleEast, to fight in #Ukraine. Now we have this video, shared by #Moscow, that appears to include [some] #Assad Republican Guard personnel: https://t.co/6oL1Jsn5WO" / Twitter

I don’t know how this makes sense to the Syrians. They go to a complete alien terrain with a population that’s really hostile and they have absolutely no connection with, but this provides opportunities. More on that later

The Ukrainians on the other hand start show great battlefield skills.

1.       They make very good use of the terrain. They make quite some tactical withdrawals (where a lot of people in the West go in panic: “They advance!”), but especially the situation around Mykolayiv shows how incredibly a defense can be when you withdraw to more favorable terrain. Yesterday near Brovary, east of Kyiv, the Ukrainians lured a huge Russian convoy in an urban street and start massacring them there. The charismatic leader of Mykolayiv region, Vitaly Kim (quote: “the country that has a chicken on their flag can’t beat the country with a fork on its flag”) even claims he’s in contact with a large group of Russians who don’t want to fight, but can’t go back, because they will be shot by their officers. This may be propaganda from Kim’s side, but during the Second World War, the Soviet army just did that. They sent their soldiers on the battlefield. In case they retreated they were shot by their own officers.

2.       The Ukrainians make great use of indirect fire systems. I’m absolutely amazed how accurate and coordinated Ukrainian artillery fire is.

In the two clips below you see both of the two points raised above in action

(1) C4H10FO2P on Twitter: "Incoming #Russia'n convoy got smashed at eastern entrance of #Kyiv by #Ukraine forces https://t.co/P3Y61SgwTY" / Twitter

 (1) C4H10FO2P on Twitter: "#Ukraine army drone guided artillery pounding #Russia'n a rmy vehicles west of #Kyiv Borodjanka https://t.co/aEbkHWwe3W" / Twitter

Especially in the first video, the lack of coordination and communication on the Russian side is shocking. Trust me: they will never take Kyiv. And it seems the Russian side didn’t learn one single thing from their previous war efforts.

When the Ukrainians make a withdrawal, it seems to go in reasonably good order. Proof of that is when the Russians finally captured a large Ukrainian base in Kherson, there was only old equipment left there by the Ukrainians that they were not able to move. Only yesterday the Russians produced for the first time a video of a captured American Javelin missile in working order.

(1) LeRoiEstMort on Twitter: "🇷🇺❌🇺🇦⚠ — Video shared by Russian channels show the trophies taken by Russian Army in a Ukrainian Military base near Kherson. Captured equipment includes ammunition, BRDM-2s, BMP-1s, and T-64s along with miscellaneous supply vehicles. https://t.co/flHZEgrGJn" / Twitter

(1) Rob Lee on Twitter: "I think this is the first video of a working Javelin ATGM captured by Russian forces, including the CLU. https://t.co/wOSI1d5NDD https://t.co/B2BeMKpVpR" / Twitter

And Russia has now come to a point that it needs to start really worrying about their conventional homeland defense. Therefore it’s essential to have a look at how Russia’s ground forces are positioned.

Out of 16 field armies, they deployed 11 in full Ukraine, please see the overview below

Formation

Field army

Headquarters location

Deployed in Ukraine

Western Military District

1st Guards Tank Army

Odintsovo

Yes

 

6th Combined Arms Army

Agalatovo

Yes

 

20th Guards Combined Arms Army

Voronezh

Yes

 

11th Army Corps

Kaliningrad

No

Southern Military District

8th Guards Combined Arms Army

Novocherkassk

Yes

 

49th Combined Arms Army

Stavropol

Yes

 

58th Combined Arms Army

Vladikavkaz

Yes

 

22nd Army Corps

Sevastopol

Yes

Central Military District

2nd Guards Tank Army

Samara

No

 

41st Combined Arms Army

Novosibirsk

Yes

Eastern Military District

5th Combined Arms Army

Ussuriysk

No

 

29th Combined Arms Army

Chita

Yes

 

35th Combined Arms Army

Belogorsk

Yes

 

36th Combined Arms Army

Ulan Ude

Yes

 

68th Army Corps

Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk

No

Northern Military District

14th Army Corps

Murmansk

No

 

This means there are only five field armies left in Russian territory. Out of those five, two are positioned in isolated places, they 11th Army Corps in Kaliningrad and the 68th Army Corps on the island of Sakhalin. Especially in the Kaliningrad case, there’s no way Russia will be able to move that field army out of there. This means that on the main Russian proper there are only three field armies available for defense. I don’t think the conventional defense of Russia has ever been this exposed in their history. They have of course the nukes as deterrence, but in case a serious revolt occurs, there’s very little that can be done to stop it.

In case Georgia wants to take back South-Ossetia and Abkhazia, now is the time. In case the Syrians want to take on Assad and finally depose him, now is the time. Especially since there have been no Russian aircraft in the skies above Idlib for multiple days now. There are already signs that at least Azerbaijan smells an opportunity. Yesterday they shelled Artsakh (the part of Azerbaijan still occupied by Armenia) for the first time since the end of the Karabakh war. Russia has already sent back some of its peacekeepers here for defense or the fight in Ukraine.

Especially the Azeris will be very much emboldened by the current events. They also see how weak Russia’s military is. They, like Ukraine, also have a military that completely updated their battlefield tactics and mentality. They also make heavy usage of the Bayraktar drones. And that’s the thing. Regardless what you think of president Erdogan. Under his leadership, it’s the first time since the Mongolians that a non-Western nation set the new standards for warfare. The Turks have found a way to deploy low-cost assets, with minimal manpower, being able to inflict huge losses. The outcome of the war in Ukraine will consolidate this new standard.

Best regards and "Slava Ukraini!"

Niels

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