SpectralTransition - Views and Updates on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Dear friends, family and colleague’s, Yes, you read it right in the title. Russia has lost the war and now of course it’s up to me to explain why. For the past months, I have been doing weekly updates, but pretty soon, we are going back to daily updates. While for the Western media, the front seems static, what’s happening on the fronts is far from static. As I wrote before after the fall of Severodonetsk and Lysychans'k the Russian advance came to an absolute standstill. Last week, the Russians made for the first time in three weeks a small advance when they captured the Vuhlehirsʹka powerplant and the nearby village of Novoluhanske. They managed to do this by launching daily mass infantry assaults that led to massive Russian losses. Most interestingly, the forces performing the attack were the troops of the Wagner mercenary company. Please don’t buy the narrative that this is an independent company. This is just a rebranded Russian army component created by Russia to deploy f...

Dear friends, family and colleagues, At the time of the last blog over a week ago, Russia made the last advances of their disastrous adventure in Ukraine. The Russian advance is now completely stalled and what’s going on right now is nothing less than a relentless Operation Desert Storm like strategic campaign of strikes to prepare the battlefield for what’s next. But there’re bigger things at play here. Let’s take a look at all the different components. First of all, Russia’s advance has completely stalled. Russia has taken all of Luhansk oblast, except literally one place, called Bilohorivka. This is the same Bilhorivaka (there are many more) known for the disastrous Russian river crossings. The Russians are still trying to advance, but in small groups and during each of their attempts they suffer horrific casualties. Ukrainian counter artillery and the Ukrainian fortifications are simply too strong. The Ukrainian HIMARS strikes resulted in the number Russian shells fired droppin...

 Dear friends, family and colleagues, It was a bit quiet from my side for the past 1.5 weeks. In part because of being busy on other stuff and enjoying the summer, in part because of heavy battlefield analysis. It took me a while to link all the events together and to determine what the plan is for Ukraine. And what a plan it is. Let’s dive into it. Since the HIMARS arrived three weeks ago, Ukraine has executed something that can only be described as a relentless campaign of tactical and limited strategic strikes deep into Russian occupied territory. They did it with just four to eight HIMARS systems and as I predicted, the effect has been devastating. The targets chosen by the Ukrainians (well, I think it’s actually the Americans) have a particular sequence. 1.        In the first set of strikes, the command and control positions were heavily targeted, resulting in lots and lots of senior officers killed. In addition, a lot of logistical vehicle...